Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
548 FXUS62 KTBW 141132 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 732 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 730 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions this morning with light and variable winds for the next couple hours. Winds will increase slightly and establish a northwesterly flow by early afternoon. VCTS this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Slightly less moisture today will keep rain and storm coverage minimal. Winds will diminish and turn northeasterly during the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)... Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees across the Sunshine State this morning. Meanwhile, a weak boundary associated with an upper level trough pushing off the East Coast should continue to approach the FL Peninsula through Thursday. As a result, a slight increase in moisture is anticipated today with PWs peaking at between 1.75 to 2 in in over central, interior, and portions of SW FL during the late afternoon. At the same time, pockets of drier air should still be present at least during the first half of the day. This will likely delay convection development to the late afternoon and evening. Light westerly winds should push any showers that do develop inland. Afternoon highs warm up into the mid 90s and with the increase in moisture this will bring heat indices near advisory levels. Some areas over interior areas get up 107 HI. Residents and visitors should remain cautious if planning to be outdoors. The aforementioned boundary should push south and out of the CWA late on Thursday. Higher POPs are expected as it travels across with moisture being pulled over the area by the system. Winds shift from the east to northeast behind it. Increasing cloud coverage will bring likely keep highs in ch low 90s. && .LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)... Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure begins to build pushing drier air behind the front limiting rain chances across the peninsula Friday and Saturday. Additionally, overnight lows drop down into the low 70s along with dewpoints as low as the upper 60s. Though afternoon highs will still be in the low 90s, we will celebrate this relief. A slight uptick in the winds as they become east to northeast. Rain chances are expected to be fairly low during this time. By early next week, model guidance tries to bring another frontal boundary potentially bringing additional pockets of drier air. Overnight lows return to near normal on Monday with highs in the mid 90s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 77 93 75 / 30 20 50 10 FMY 94 79 94 77 / 30 20 60 20 GIF 97 78 94 76 / 50 30 50 0 SRQ 93 78 94 76 / 20 20 50 20 BKV 94 75 93 73 / 40 20 50 0 SPG 94 82 93 80 / 20 20 50 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...ADavis PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Flannery