Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
689 FXUS62 KTBW 290045 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 845 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 841 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 It was another fairly active afternoon with scattered showers and storms developing over west central and southwest Florida and traversing eastward over the interior. We did see a few strong wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph at some locations. We also had radar estimated rainfall amounts between 2-4 inches in some of the stronger slower moving storms, one of which warranted a Flood Advisory near Lake Manatee State Park. Some storms and showers remain over SW FL, but things will continue to quiet down over the next couple of hours with partly cloudy skies and rain-free conditions expected overnight through early Sunday morning. We can expect scattered showers and storms once again late Sunday morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening hours. No significant changes needed to current forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 841 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the forecast period. Currently, activity has quieted down across most of the area, outside of our southernmost terminals, where thunderstorms are still present in the vicinity. Over the next few hours, rain-free conditions with light and variable flow should set in and last overnight into tomorrow morning. Around noon, showers and storms could start back up for our northern sites with convection forming offshore and moving on to land. Activity should then quell through the evening. Meanwhile, our southern terminals should see storms resume a few hours later than their northern counterparts and persist later into the night. Overall, the setup for tomorrow and over the next few days should be comparable to what we experienced today, just with most thunderstorms occurring earlier in the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 841 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Coastal showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist in the morning to early afternoon hours over the next period. Currently, winds are generally light with a surface high situated over Central Florida, but that will gradually shift to a stronger southwest flow towards the end of the week. Winds could get up to 15 knots with minimal gusting present. Seas should be 2-3 feet in our northern coastal zones, with conditions of 1-2 feet in the southern zones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 91 77 89 / 30 60 60 70 FMY 75 92 75 91 / 40 70 40 70 GIF 75 92 75 89 / 60 80 50 70 SRQ 75 90 75 89 / 30 60 50 70 BKV 71 92 72 89 / 40 70 60 70 SPG 77 89 77 86 / 30 60 60 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn/Poggiali DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt