Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
167 FXUS62 KTBW 111118 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 718 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today and Saturday. On Sunday, the U/L ridge will gradually retrograde west of the Florida peninsula. An U/L low will move over the forecast area in its wake on Monday, and will sit over the peninsula through much of the week. This will create a very wet pattern across west central and southwest Florida. At the surface, little change for the next couple of days as weak high pressure will hold over the forecast area with the ridge axis generally across the central Florida peninsula. This flow promotes highest pops over the interior and southwest Florida each day...which is also the region of best available deep layer moisture. The west/east coast sea breeze boundaries will push slowly inland during the day with the boundaries colliding over the interior during the mid/late afternoon hours increasing shower/thunderstorm activity. Southwest Florida will be on the south side of the ridge axis with light southeast flow to start the day. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the coast with increasing shower/thunderstorm activity during the early/mid afternoon. Due to the weak overall flow and slow storm movement, locally heavy rain will be possible. Storms may push back toward the coast during the evening hours from Tampa south...but should dissipate before making it all the way to the coast. Skies will become partly cloudy after midnight. Sunday will be a transition day as deep layer moisture will be on the increase ahead of the approaching U/L low east of the area. Highest pops should remain over the interior and southwest Florida as boundary layer flow will remain weak. Locally heavy rain will again be possible due to the slow storm movement. Early next week, increasing onshore boundary layer flow combined with the U/L low and deep tropical moisture advecting over the forecast area will bring a significantly greater chance of showers/storms Monday through Wednesday to the entire forecast area. Boundary layer winds will veer to the south and southeast mid week. Locally heavy rain will be possible each day. Late in the week, a bit more uncertainty as the U/L low will slowly retrograde west of the peninsula...and weak surface high pressure will build over the area from the east. Deep tropical moisture will remain over west central and southwest Florida, with convection primarily sea breeze driven. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 717 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 VFR conditions currently across the terminals. Current guidance and forecast is that afternoon/evening showers/storms should stay to the south and east of the Tampa region. For now, have only included VCTS at LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW. Will monitor trends throughout the day and continue to evaluate the coverage of TS later today. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with winds and seas below cautionary levels. Main hazard through the weekend will be scattered showers/thunderstorms which will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and rough seas...with most likely timing during the evening and late night/early morning hours. Next week, there will be an increase in the areal coverage of shower/thunderstorm activity as an U/L low moves over the region. This will increase the risk for hazardous conditions for small craft on the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 93 80 / 30 10 50 30 FMY 93 76 95 77 / 70 20 60 30 GIF 96 76 95 77 / 60 20 60 10 SRQ 93 77 93 77 / 40 20 50 30 BKV 93 73 94 74 / 40 10 50 10 SPG 91 79 91 79 / 30 10 50 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle