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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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739 FXUS62 KTBW 180742 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 342 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 As a deep trough passes to the north, ridging remains in place across the Florida peninsula. The center of this surface ridge axis remains situated across the Central FL peninsula, with light and variable flow in place across the region once again today. This most closely resembles a regime 1 setup today. Lacking a dominant flow, sea breeze movement will be sluggish, favoring higher POPs along the FL West Coast - not unlike the last few days Today`s limiting factor is some mid-level dry air that is present once again. However, it didn`t end up being a significant barrier to convection yesterday and doesn`t look to be all that impactful once again today. Water vapor satellite imagery also suggests a fair amount of this dry air is being scoured out. Assuming thunderstorms develop much like they did yesterday, there is a higher potential for downbursts this afternoon. Forecast DCAPE is exceeding 1000 J/KG during the afternoon hours. As convection grows deeper in the late afternoon, the risk becomes higher. It is not particularly high, but enough that it is worth noting. With such a light flow, storm motions are going to be almost nonexistent, which means locally heavy rainfall is possible. Additionally, storms will produce frequent lightning as they grow deeper in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 As the trough axis centered over the Upper Great Lakes lifts northward back into Canada, the suppressed ridge axis will build back west. In response, the subtropical ridge will shift farther west as well. A stronger ESE flow will then setup in response for Friday and over the weekend, much like regime 6. Climatologically, this doesn`t have a huge impact on our weather. The West Coast remains favored for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening as the stronger ESE flow delays sea breeze development and pins it near the coast. However, there is another patch of Saharan Dust being carried westward by the trade winds. It looks like this could also begin to impact our area beginning on Saturday. Dust tends to limit convective activity as the air becomes drier; but this has the tradeoff of potentially enhancing storms that do develop, allowing for an elevated wind risk. With fewer storms, it also means less relief from daytime heat in the afternoon. Questions still remain about just how much and how impactful dust could actually be, though. Global models are not showing much influence at this time. The forecast continues to show max daytime POPs of 55% to 65% each day. Aside from some slight day-to-day variability with some drier air and/or fluctuations in wind speeds with the mean flow, there is really no significant change in pattern until the very end of the forecast period when a weak upper-level disturbance enters the scene. This Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (or TUTT) could lead to earlier and enhanced rain chances with the return of SW flow for next Thursday, perhaps lasting a couple days beyond and towards next weekend. In summary, a typical summertime pattern will continue. Expect warm, humid mornings, afternoon storms, and quiet evenings. Late next week, the timing could shift earlier, but still is in line with typical patterns for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 119 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A light and variable background flow is favored once again today, meaning that sea breeze circulations will be dominant during the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along these sea breeze boundaries, with some of the highest potential for thunderstorms at coastal WCFL and SWFL terminals this afternoon. TEMPOs have been added for windows when impacts are most likely at each terminal. A short window for IFR is possible, along with gusty winds, before quieting once more overnight. A slightly more ESE flow is expected for the next few days to come, keeping higher chances for thunderstorm impacts in play during subsequent afternoons through the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A light and variable flow will continue across coastal waters today, with some shower and thunderstorm activity expected this morning and into the afternoon. The highest winds and seas should be expected in the vicinity of storms. However, as an ESE flow settles in and becomes stronger on Friday, thunderstorms over land are more likely to drift over nearshore coastal waters in the late afternoon and into the evening through the middle of next week. While the background flow will be come slightly stronger, the expectation is little change in surface wind speeds. Seas remain around 1 foot or less outside thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 341 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 While some slightly drier air is present in the mid-levels, this does not appear to be a significant barrier to thunderstorm activity. Scattered to numerous storms are forecast once again today, with the highest coverage expected this afternoon and into the evening as the sea breeze develops. However, the flow is light and variable, meaning that dispersions are low. A slightly stronger ESE flow begins to settle in tomorrow, raising dispersions during the afternoon. Additionally, slightly drier air could arrive this weekend. However, storms are still forecast and RH values will remain well above critical thresholds. No significant fire weather concerns exist at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 80 93 79 / 60 30 70 40 FMY 93 77 93 78 / 70 40 70 30 GIF 95 77 95 77 / 50 40 70 20 SRQ 93 78 93 78 / 50 40 70 40 BKV 95 75 95 75 / 50 30 70 40 SPG 94 82 93 82 / 50 40 70 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Flannery