630
FXUS62 KTBW 080759
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
359 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

High pressure remains over the state this morning with continued
hot and humid conditions today prompting a Heat Advisory issuance
effective from noon to 6 PM for heat indices as high as 108-111
degrees. Ridge axis continues to gradually shift southward with
S-SE flow this morning evident via pre-dawn coastal and offshore
showers and storms currently spreading N-NW over W FL and E Gulf
locations. Flow turns onshore later this morning into afternoon as
the sea breeze progresses inland with accompanying shower/storm
chances migrating from coastal to interior locations where highest
afternoon and evening PoPs are likely. Highs generally in the
lower to mid 90s with feels like temps in the triple digits.

SW flow pattern persists through the week featuring highest PoPs
over the E Gulf and coastal areas during the AM hours before
shifting to interior locations during the PM hours. After today,
moderating temps will favor slightly less hot and humid conditions
reducing the likelihood of reaching heat advisory criteria for
most of the area. Highs are likely to run in the lower 90s with
heat indices of around 100-105 degrees expected. Ridge axis
expected to shift north late week into the weekend shifting the
SW flow in place for the majority of the week to easterly into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Ongoing showers and storms may encroach on coastal terminals over
the next few hours before guidance suggests a lull toward sunrise,
followed by redevelopment late morning into afternoon as flow
shifts onshore, with additional cig/vsby impacts likely before
shifting east of terminals late afternoon into the evening. With
prevailing onshore flow expected today onward, subsequent cycles
may need mention of showers or storms overnight Mon into early
Tue morning as Gulf moisture begins to overspread terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Weak high pressure remains over the waters with generally light
winds and seas 2 ft or less through the week with no headlines
expected. Main concern will be thunderstorms producing locally
gusty winds, higher seas, and lightning for mariners.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

No fire weather concerns expected with continued warm and humid
summertime conditions with light winds and afternoon seabreezes.
The light flow will lead to areas of fairly low dispersion index
values, with gusty erratic winds and dangerous lightning possible
with thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  80  90  80 /  60  40  50  40
FMY  92  78  92  78 /  40  30  40  30
GIF  95  77  92  76 /  70  40  60  40
SRQ  92  79  92  79 /  50  30  40  40
BKV  94  76  90  75 /  70  50  60  50
SPG  92  83  91  83 /  50  30  50  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Oglesby