Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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462 FXUS62 KTAE 202310 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 710 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Similar to the last few days, convection got an early start across the area and showers and storms are now becoming widespread with continued afternoon heating. Like yesterday, activity will continue to push inland with further development of storms to north and east parts of the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, with only an occasional strong wind gusts possible in the strongest storms today. Main concerns will revolve around a risk for localized flooding as high rainfall rates accompany the storms. Some locations along the coast saw a quick 3 to 4 inches of rain in the span of 60 to 90 minutes today and while the greater flood threat will be along the coast, inland areas still could see these types of rainfall amounts in localized areas if storms train across an area. Convection will gradually wind down early this evening and while isolated showers/storms could continue in some locations this evening, most of the evening and early part of the overnight hours should be quiet. Like today, activity will then again begin to increase along our coastal counties and nearshore waters in the pre- dawn and morning hours. While we`re sounding like a broken record, conditions look to repeat themselves again on Sunday as storms develop along/near the coast and progress inland through the late morning and early afternoon hours. With the increased activity high temperatures will remain around normal and in the low 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The atmospheric tug-of-war between a stubborn positively tilted upper trough to our NW and subtropical West Atlantic ridge continues into early next week. We remain caught in between these two features, which should keep the weather wet/unsettled/muggy until the pattern relents. The forecast reflects these expectations by maintaining elevated rain chances and low-to-mid 90s/70s for highs/lows. Greatest potential for rainfall is the NW portion of the Tri-State closer to the trough with its attendant surface front. Heat indices look to range from about 101-109 degrees, the latter of which is at or near advisory levels. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The subtropical ridge noses westward in response to its upstream counterpart showing some weakening early to mid-week. This slight synoptic shift may reduce convective coverage from widespread to scattered in nature, but trends still appear fairly wet. By late week, a reinforcing shortwave/cutoff low rounding through the Great Lakes causes the ridge to modestly retreat eastward, thus reverting us to the annoyingly stubborn "sandwich" pattern of moist deep-layer SW flow. As a result, mostly elevated rain chances remain in the forecast. By next weekend, it seems that ridging becomes much better established across the Eastern US, so expect a return to more of a typical summertime setup of diurnal seabreeze-driven thunderstorms and hotter daytime temperatures in the extended period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 709 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Diurnal convection is dissipating with a low probability of TSRA at the terminals through 02Z. A small chance of brief MVFR cigs late tonight into Sunday morning and cannot rule out brief fog at DHN. Otherwise, MVFR cigs w/ SHRA and TSRA Sunday morning, except Sunday afternoon at VLD. Expect a gradual return to VFR as activity ends. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Outside of daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, generally pleasant boating conditions prevail. Southerly winds at around 10 knots or less continue with seas of 1 to 2 feet into at least mid next week. Any thunderstorms will be capable of localized gusty winds, higher waves, frequent lightning, and possible waterspouts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 No fire weather concerns outside daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as the area will be under a wet and moist pattern through the early part of next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Instances of localized nuisance/flash flooding remain possible over the next few days as long as the moist environment persists for continued daily heavy-rain-making thunderstorms. The most vulnerable locations are urban, low-lying, and poor-drainage spots or places reeling from antecedent wet conditions. The axis of highest precipitation does appear to shift west to NW heading into early next week, but overall trends still appear wet. Widespread 1-2+ inches are forecast (isolated higher). In terms of rivers, there are no concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 89 75 91 74 / 90 20 70 30 Panama City 88 78 89 76 / 90 50 60 30 Dothan 85 73 89 73 / 80 30 80 30 Albany 87 73 89 74 / 90 40 70 30 Valdosta 90 74 92 75 / 80 30 60 40 Cross City 90 75 93 75 / 70 20 40 10 Apalachicola 87 79 88 77 / 90 30 50 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...LF MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...IG3