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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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737 FXUS62 KTAE 180544 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 144 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Mid and upper level troughing centered over the Great Lakes region today, is expected to slowly propagate eastward towards the northeast on Thursday. As this happens, a frontal boundary is expected to push south into north/central Alabama and Georgia by the late evening hours. Initially through the morning hours, expect an additional round of isolated to scattered convection in the NE Gulf waters to develop off the land breeze before pushing inland to coastal Florida zones by the 9am-1pm EDT time frame. This will likely keep high temperatures capped once again in the low 90s across all Florida zones as cloud cover is expected to quickly develop from storm outflow. This convection is expected to slowly push inland through the afternoon and evening hours on stronger storms outflow boundaries. Convection that develops along the aforementioned frontal boundary will likely develop in north central Alabama and Georgia, and push south along outflow boundaries through the evening and early overnight hours. This may collide with northward moving convection from the seabreeze during that time window, and could potentially lead to some flooding concerns in SE Alabama and SW Georgia. With PWATs generally sitting around 2 inches, expect shower and thunderstorm coverage to be widespread throughout the region. Some storms may also be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, with localized flash flooding in poor drainage and urban environments possible. A strong wind gust or two can`t be ruled out with the strongest convective towers that develop. Highs will likely be capped by convection and cloud cover throughout the day in the low 90s. A few areas that remain clear, and don`t see a shower or thunderstorm until later in the evening could see high temperatures reach the mid 90s. Lows tonight will generally fall into the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Deep upper level troughing will stretch across the Mississippi River, nudging the sub tropical ridge over the Atlantic to the east. At the surface, a front stalls out to our north increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area. Moisture remains high with PWATs around 1.8-2.5", with heavy rain and localized flooding being possible in slow moving or training storms. In terms of temperatures, highs should be around the low to mid 90s for Friday. Though there`s a chance temps could be a few degrees lower depending on cloud cover and rain. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 No major changes to the forecast as ensemble guidance shows the Atlantic ridge building back over the southeast, pushing the trough to our north. This will slowly push the front from Friday even more northwards over the weekend, which could lower precipitation chances a bit. Come early next week, tropical moisture from the Atlantic surges westward, which will lead to increased chances for showers and storms again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms, beginning around sunrise this morning and continuing into the afternoon, could lead to brief periods of MVFR to IFR conditions if they occur directly over a terminal. Otherwise, expect activity to begin winding down around sunset with VFR conditions prevailing into the overnight period. && .MARINE... Issued at 920 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Tranquil marine conditions will continue the rest of the week. Gentle south or southwesterly winds are expected thru Saturday before turning more southeasterly early next week. Seas will generally run less than 2 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early morning hours each day. Suddenly higher winds, frequent lightning, waterspouts, and increased seas are possible in the vicinity of any storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Another wet few days are on top for the region, with elevated PoPs forecast areawide. Other than frequent lightning and erratic wind changes in the vicinity of thunderstorms, there are currently no fire weather concerns at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Wetter weather will prevail over much of the forecast period. The latest WPC guidance has come down a skoosh, to about 1.5-3.0 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts possible. There is marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday for most the area excluding the eastern FL Big Bend counties and again on Friday for all of southeast AL, southwest GA, and the western FL Panhandle counties. Localized nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas will be possible where storms are slow moving or train over an area for an extended period of time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 75 93 75 / 80 20 70 30 Panama City 90 78 90 78 / 70 50 80 50 Dothan 94 73 91 72 / 70 50 80 40 Albany 94 73 93 73 / 60 50 80 40 Valdosta 95 75 95 75 / 60 30 70 40 Cross City 94 75 94 76 / 80 20 60 30 Apalachicola 89 80 90 80 / 90 30 70 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...KR