443
FXUS62 KTAE 140515
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
115 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The main change to tonight`s forecast was reducing rain chances
across the board based on current trends and the 0Z HRRR.
Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two are possible
during the early morning hrs over the warm Gulf. Otherwise,
everything else is on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A hot and relatively quiet evening with afternoon showers and
thunderstorms generally staying south of I-10. High pressure aloft
will continue to dominate the pattern through tomorrow, limiting
overall activity, though a slight increase in coverage is still
expected.

Expect overnight lows in the mid 70s and daytime highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Notably above normal, though not entering
record territory yet.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A weak and broad upper level ridge will be in place at the end of
the weekend and into the start of next week while at the surface,
a very diffuse front will be draped across the forecast area. The
heat from the weekend is likely to continue but with preciptable
waters slowly climbing, and plenty of instability from afternoon
sunshine, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
forecast across the area. With weak low-level flow, storm motions
will largely be driven by convective outflows. With better deep-
layer moisture moving in, we`ll likely see the return of heat
advisories with mid 90s heat and mid 70s dewpoints in place on
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The upper level ridge slowly breaks down through the upcoming work
week as a broad upper level trough takes hold over the central and
southern US. Deep-layer moisture will be well above normal through
much of next week and with steady southwest flow this should allow
rain chances to climb through the week. The increasing rain
chances each day will mean a reduction in afternoon high
temperatures from the mid 90s on Tuesday to the low 90s by the
week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area
this afternoon with the best chances generally along and south of
I-10. Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected through
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting west winds below 10 kts with 1-ft
seas and a dominant period of 6-7 seconds.

From CWF Synopsis...Favorable marine conditions are anticipated
through the weekend into early next week. Light to moderate
westerly winds turn more southwesterly by mid to late next week
with seas generally less than 2 feet. Rain chances increase
through next week, with the highest chances for rain generally in
the early morning hours and in the middle part of the upcoming
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A few showers and storms will be possible each day with the majority
of activity staying south of I-10. High mixing heights may lead to
very good dispersions for portions of the area in the afternoons.
There are no fire weather concerns at this point.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Moisture works back into the region early next week, increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Localized street and nuisance flooding may be possible within any
slow moving showers and thunderstorms, as is typical in the
summer, but there are no riverine concerns expected given
widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches through the next 7
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  77  96  76 /  50  10  60  20
Panama City   92  79  92  79 /  50  20  50  20
Dothan        97  76  96  75 /  40  20  60  20
Albany        97  77  97  77 /  20  10  50  20
Valdosta      97  76  98  76 /  30  10  50  20
Cross City    94  76  94  75 /  50  20  70  20
Apalachicola  90  80  90  79 /  50  20  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs