797
FXUS01 KWBC 162008
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 17 2024 - 00Z Mon Aug 19 2024

...A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall tonight over the southern
Appalachians and interior Southeast through tonight, shifting into
the northern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday...

...A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains tonight, over the interior Pacific
Northwest and upper Ohio Valley on Saturday, and across the
Southeast and Carolinas on Sunday...

...Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect
across the central/southern Plains into the lower
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys...

The prevailing weather pattern across mainland U.S. will continue
to favor precipitation and cooler than normal temperatures across
the northeastern quadrant of the country while heat will continue
in portions of the interior western U.S. and especially over the
southern Plains.  A low pressure system currently centered over
the upper Midwest is forecast to progress slowly but steadily
through the Great Lakes for the next couple of days.  This system
will be responsible for bringing considerable clouds along with
widespread modest rainfall with embedded thunderstorms across the
Great Lakes reaching into New England by Sunday.  The chance of
heavy rainfall will be greater farther to the south in the warm
sector across the southern Appalachians into the interior
Southeast through tonight as clusters of thunderstorms develop
ahead of the trailing cold front.  Some of these thunderstorms
could become severe across the upper Ohio Valley on Saturday.  By
Sunday, the front will progress into the East Coast states with
heavy rain possible over the northern Mid-Atlantic where a low
pressure wave is forecast to form.  Farther south ahead of the
cold front, thunderstorms could become severe across the Southeast
and into the Carolinas on Sunday.

Over the western U.S., monsoonal moisture combining with daytime
heating will trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of the
Southwest, eastern Great Basin, and into the southern Rockies from
late afternoon into late evening during the weekend.  An
upper-level trough moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest is
forecast to trigger thunderstorms which could turn severe over the
interior sections on Saturday.  Meanwhile, upper-level ridging
over parts of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley
will support high temperatures in the upper-90s to low-100s with
dew points in the low to mid-70s across the region.  This level of
heat and humidity has prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories over parts of the central/southern Plains and across
the lower Mississippi into the Tennessee Valleys.  This prolonged
stretch of high temperatures in the upper 90s and triple digits
will persist through the weekend.  Low temperatures around 80
degrees are also forecast along the Gulf Coast with daily maximum
heat indices nearing 110F farther inland up the lower Mississippi
Valley.  Please practice heat safety if you need to spend time
outdoors or in a building without air conditioning.

Kong/Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$