397
FXUS01 KWBC 070801
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024 - 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024

...Beryl to bring significant impacts to the Texas coast beginning
today before making landfall as a Hurricane tonight...

...Extremely dangerous heat wave continues in the West....

...Focus of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall expected to
shift south into Oklahoma today...

...Critical Fire Weather over portions of southern Utah...


The upper pattern across the CONUS will consist of a dome of high
pressure in the West, a digging trough in the Central U.S. and
more ridging in the Southeast heading into the beginning of the
work week.

Beryl, which is currently a Tropical Storm, is forecast to
strengthen to a Hurricane before making landfall early Monday
morning. Tropical Storm force winds could develop as early as this
evening for the upper Texas coast. Heavy rainfall, severe
thunderstorms, as well as strong rip currents and coastal
inundation from storm surge are the most likely impacts from
Beryl. There`s a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive
Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding for portions of the central
Texas Coast from Aransas up to Galveston County today. There`s a
Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms along the middle to upper
Texas coast with severe wind gusts, isolated to large hail and a
few tornadoes possible. Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorm
threats spread farther inland through the ArkLaTex on Monday.
Another Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect from the
central/northern Texas coast up into northeast Texas near the
ArkLaTex. Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are
in effect for portions of the Texas Coast from South Padre Island
up through the Houston metro area. For more information please
refer to the National Hurricane Center.

The extremely dangerous heat wave in the West is forecast to
continue and expand across the Northwest and into the Northern
High Plains over the next few days. Dozens of daily record
temperatures are forecast to be tied or broken into the work week.
Highs in the 100s to 110s and lows in the 70s will represent 15-30
degree positive temperature anomalies. The multi-day nature of the
heat and record warm overnight temperatures will cause heat stress
to build in people without adequate cooling and hydration. In
addition to the heat, dry and windy conditions over parts of
southern Utah will contribute to a Critical Fire Weather Risk
today.

The digging upper trough over the Central U.S. will push a surface
cold front south through the Central Plains today. An MCS is
expected to develop between the cold front and a warm front
lifting up from the Southern High Plains. This area of convergence
will be ripe for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall this
afternoon. There are Slight Risks of Severe Thunderstorms and
Excessive Rainfall over portions of northern Texas, central
Oklahoma and southern Kansas, where the MCS is forecast to produce
severe wind gusts and isolated flash flooding. A quasi-stationary
surface front draped across the Southeast will focus scattered to
isolated thunderstorm activity across the region over the next
couple days. An isolated instance of flash flooding cannot be
ruled out as a result.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$