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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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969 FXUS64 KSJT 121131 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 631 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 One look at the 500mb analysis this morning tells us that there is little, if any, change from this time yesterday. At the upper- levels, a 595dam ridge is located across northern Texas. Once again, 850mb temperatures should range from 20-23 deg C. This should translate to yet another day of temperatures ranging from 100-104 degrees this afternoon. Despite the dewpoints in the mid 60s, heat index values should remain below 105 degrees for most areas today. The only slight difference from yesterday is that some clouds are possible this morning, as evidenced by the developing stratus deck over the Hill Country on satellite imagery. However, any cloud cover over the southern tier of counties should burn off by mid-morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected for the next week. The upper-level ridge currently impacting the region will begin to slide off to the east Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately, another strong ridge will follow close behind it, moving over the area from the west starting on Friday. In between the two ridges, we could see northwest flow aloft and a weak surface front approach the area. Disturbances in the flow aloft and convergence along the front, could allow for some rain Thursday into Friday. Models do vary with how far south the front will make it, limiting our confidence in any potential rain chances. Right now, it looks like the majority of the rain will stay out of our area. However, there is a small chance we could see some rainfall, particularly in our northwestern counties. As the second ridge strengthens, temperatures are forecast to increase further, putting highs in the 100 to 108 degree range by Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for this upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Ragged MVFR ceilings may develop through 15Z for southern terminals, then improve by late morning. Southerly winds should increase by late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 102 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 102 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 98 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 101 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 103 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 96 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 98 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...SK