969
FXUS64 KSJT 121131
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
631 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

One look at the 500mb analysis this morning tells us that there is
little, if any, change from this time yesterday.  At the upper-
levels, a 595dam ridge is located across northern Texas. Once again,
850mb temperatures should range from 20-23 deg C. This should
translate to yet another day of temperatures ranging from 100-104
degrees this afternoon. Despite the dewpoints in the mid 60s, heat
index values should remain below 105 degrees for most areas today.
The only slight difference from yesterday is that some clouds are
possible this morning, as evidenced by the developing stratus
deck over the Hill Country on satellite imagery. However, any
cloud cover over the southern tier of counties should burn off by
mid-morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected for the next week. The
upper-level ridge currently impacting the region will begin to
slide off to the east Tuesday into Wednesday. Unfortunately,
another strong ridge will follow close behind it, moving over the
area from the west starting on Friday. In between the two ridges,
we could see northwest flow aloft and a weak surface front
approach the area. Disturbances in the flow aloft and convergence
along the front, could allow for some rain Thursday into Friday.
Models do vary with how far south the front will make it,
limiting our confidence in any potential rain chances. Right now,
it looks like the majority of the rain will stay out of our area.
However, there is a small chance we could see some rainfall,
particularly in our northwestern counties. As the second ridge
strengthens, temperatures are forecast to increase further,
putting highs in the 100 to 108 degree range by Sunday. Heat
Advisories will likely be needed for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Ragged MVFR ceilings may develop through 15Z for southern
terminals, then improve by late morning. Southerly winds should
increase by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    102  77 101  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 102  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    98  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  101  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 103  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       96  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK