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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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840 FXUS64 KSJT 130520 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be above normal, in the upper 90s to near 104. Heat index values across portions of Throckmorton County could be near Heat Advisory criteria, but at this time it looks fairly marginal. Given how marginal this looks, opted to hold off on a Heat Advisory at this point, but portions of the eastern Big Country might eventually need an Advisory if newer guidance trends hotter. Expect south to southeast winds to increase to 10 to 15 mph by mid to late morning Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across West Central Texas through Thursday, with models showing a small possibility of a series of weak upper-level disturbances tracking through the area by the end of the week. If these upper-level disturbances come to fruition and line-up with the timing of a weak cold front tracking through the area, we could see rain chances increase for the Thursday into Friday time frame. However, at this time there is very little confidence in seeing rainfall, with the only slight chances being across parts of the Big Country. By late Friday and into the weekend, a stronger upper-level ridge is expected to build across the area, bringing even warmer and drier conditions to the area for this coming weekend. Temperatures are forecast to increase further, with high temperatures in the 100 to 108 degree range by Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for this weekend given temperatures exceeding 105 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Scattered low clouds will be possible for a few hours this morning at KJCT and KSOA. We could see brief MVFR CIGs, but conditions should remain mainly VFR for the next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty on and off over the next 24 hours, with winds peaking this afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 102 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 102 75 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 98 73 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 101 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 103 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 96 74 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 98 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...AP