802
FXUS64 KSJT 011704
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1204 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will
  develop across the Big Country this afternoon.

- Localized heavy rainfall could occur with any strong cells that
  develop.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Wednesday through Friday, with warm and humid conditions
  persisting.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 211 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Another humid day is expected with chances for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms as west central Texas remains in weak troughing.
The upper-level trough, consisting mainly of the remnants of
Tropical Storm Barry, will continue to push a moist gulf airmass
into west central Texas. At the surface, the cold front that
reached the I-20 corridor yesterday evening should remain in place
through the day. Low-level flow should lift moisture over this
boundary and allow another round of showers and storms to develop
across the Big Country this afternoon. PWAT values look a bit
lower today (around 1.8 inches) than yesterday (over 2 inches),
but localized flooding is still possible, especially for areas
that saw heavy rainfall yesterday. Further south, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly where pockets of
greatest heating occur. Extensive cloud cover today, albeit
broken, should result in high temperatures ranging from the mid
80s to low 90s. Chances for showers should continue into the
evening before diminishing after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

A subtropical ridge to the east of the region will keep broad
southerly flow from the surface up to 500mb, and will continue
the influx of Gulf moisture into West Central Texas the end of
this week. Generally this will keep warm and humid conditions, as
well as some scattered showers and thunderstorm chances in the
forecast through the end of the week. While severe weather is not
expected, precipitable water values will be high (1.50 to 2+
inches), which will contribute to locally heavy downpours and
increase potential for flooding with the stronger storms. Expect
slightly below normal temperatures through the end of the week
due to the increase in humidity and cloud cover, with highs in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. Warmest temperatures are expected across the
Big Country and northern portions of the Concho Valley and
Heartland.

The ridge will gradually shift back westward across the region by
the weekend, decreasing precipitation chances slightly and
bringing some warmer afternoon high temperatures to the area
through Monday. High temperatures over the weekend and into early
next week will climb back into the mid to upper 90s, with warm
overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Scattered to numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms, are
possible at all sites this afternoon and evening. Any
thunderstorms may result in locally heavy rainfall which will
result in reduced visibilities. Stratus will result in MVFR
ceilings Wednesday morning at KJCT and KSOA. Expect south to
southeast winds to generally remain below 12 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  86  71  86 /  40  40  30  50
San Angelo  71  81  70  85 /  50  50  40  50
Junction    70  84  70  86 /  40  50  40  50
Brownwood   73  89  71  88 /  20  30  20  30
Sweetwater  71  83  71  86 /  50  50  40  60
Ozona       69  79  69  82 /  50  60  50  50
Brady       72  84  70  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...Daniels