840
FXUS64 KSJT 130520
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas
through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to
dominate our weather. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper
70s. Highs on Tuesday will be above normal, in the upper 90s to near
104. Heat index values across portions of Throckmorton County could
be near Heat Advisory criteria, but at this time it looks fairly
marginal. Given how marginal this looks, opted to hold off on a Heat
Advisory at this point, but portions of the eastern Big Country
might eventually need an Advisory if newer guidance trends hotter.
Expect south to southeast winds to increase to 10 to 15 mph by mid
to late morning Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across West Central
Texas through Thursday, with models showing a small possibility of
a series of weak upper-level disturbances tracking through the
area by the end of the week. If these upper-level disturbances
come to fruition and line-up with the timing of a weak cold front
tracking through the area, we could see rain chances increase for
the Thursday into Friday time frame. However, at this time there
is very little confidence in seeing rainfall, with the only slight
chances being across parts of the Big Country.

By late Friday and into the weekend, a stronger upper-level ridge
is expected to build across the area, bringing even warmer and
drier conditions to the area for this coming weekend. Temperatures
are forecast to increase further, with high temperatures in the
100 to 108 degree range by Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be
needed for this weekend given temperatures exceeding 105 degrees
on both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Scattered low clouds will be possible for a few hours this morning
at KJCT and KSOA. We could see brief MVFR CIGs, but conditions
should remain mainly VFR for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty on and off over the next 24 hours, with winds peaking this
afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 mph.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    102  77 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 102  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    98  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  101  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 103  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       96  74  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       98  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...AP