916
FXUS64 KSJT 071838
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
138 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch in effect today until 7 PM for central,
  eastern and southeastern parts of the area.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms anticipated this
  afternoon, some with locally heavy rainfall, becoming more
  isolated to scattered in the evening.

- Warmer temperatures by the latter part of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

An abundance of rich tropical moisture remains over the area with
ongoing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms impacting
much of our eastern counties. These showers and storms within this
very moisture-rich airmass are producing some highly efficient
rain producing systems south and east of an Albany to Ozona line
through tonight. Portions of the Concho Valley, Heartland,
Northwest Hill Country, and Northern Edwards Plateau are currently
under a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Current radar trends
are showing increasing westerly coverage, with persistent showers
continuing across our eastern and southeastern counties. Given
the efficiency of these storms and how slow they are moving
through the impacted areas, a Flood Watch, and various Flash Flood
Warnings and Advisories are in place over portions of the
Northwest Hill Country and Heartland.

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist into
tonight mainly south and east of an Albany to Robert Lee to Ozona
line, with coverage becoming more isolated to scattered. The main
hazards will be flash flooding due to very high rainfall rates,
dangerous lightning and gusty winds. Will keep the Flood Watch
going until 7 PM this evening for the Heartland, Northwest Hill
Country, eastern 2/3 of the Concho Valley and Schleicher County.
Please keep up with the latest weather information and have many
ways to receive warnings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

An upper level high will be centered over Arizona/New Mexico
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with our area falling on the
eastern periphery of this feature. Our northern most counties are
currently in the Marginal Risk for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon as a weak disturbance rotates
around the east side of the high. Some of our eastern and
southeastern counties will continue to have a low chance (20-30
percent) for showers and storms Wednesday afternoon. Brief but
heavy rainfall will be possible with any showers or thunderstorms
that do develop over the area. Afternoon high temperatures for
Wednesday are expected to rise into the mid 80s to 90s across the
area.

By late week the upper high is expected shift further westward
into the Desert Southwest with a gradual increase in the 850mb
temperatures. This will result in a warming trend into Friday with
afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s
Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will generally remain in the
70s. A few showers and storms will be possible over portions of
the Big Country next weekend, and over our eastern counties on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Scattered TSRA will affect most of our area TAF sites through the
early evening hours today, have handled this activity with a
combination of TEMPO groups and Prob30 groups with TSRA in them.
Outside of any storms, mainly VFR conditions are expected through
the evening hours. Have introduced some MVFR CIGs after 09Z for
southern terminals Tuesday morning. Winds will be light and
variable outside of TSRA as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  92  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
San Angelo  71  90  71  91 /   0  10   0  10
Junction    71  89  70  89 /  10  10   0  30
Brownwood   71  89  71  90 /  10  20  10  20
Sweetwater  73  93  72  93 /   0  10  10  10
Ozona       71  89  70  89 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       71  87  70  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-
Concho-Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...20