697
FXUS64 KSJT 121815
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
115 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 231 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

One look at the 500mb analysis this morning tells us that there is
little, if any, change from this time yesterday.  At the upper-
levels, a 595dam ridge is located across northern Texas. Once again,
850mb temperatures should range from 20-23 deg C. This should
translate to yet another day of temperatures ranging from 100-104
degrees this afternoon. Despite the dewpoints in the mid 60s, heat
index values should remain below 105 degrees for most areas today.
The only slight difference from yesterday is that some clouds are
possible this morning, as evidenced by the developing stratus
deck over the Hill Country on satellite imagery. However, any
cloud cover over the southern tier of counties should burn off by
mid-morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across West Central
Texas through Thursday, with models showing a small possibility of
a series of weak upper-level disturbances tracking through the
area by the end of the week. If these upper-level disturbances
come to fruition and line-up with the timing of a weak cold front
tracking through the area, we could see rain chances increase for
the Thursday into Friday time frame. However, at this time there
is very little confidence in seeing rainfall, with the only slight
chances being across parts of the Big Country.

By late Friday and into the weekend, a stronger upper-level ridge
is expected to build across the area, bringing even warmer and
drier conditions to the area for this coming weekend. Temperatures
are forecast to increase further, with high temperatures in the
100 to 108 degree range by Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be
needed for this weekend given temperatures exceeding 105 degrees
on both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Patchy
stratus is possible across the Hill Country Tuesday morning, but
should remain south of the sites. Gusty south to southeast winds
will drop below 10 knots this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     77 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  75 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73  98  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   75 101  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  78 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       74  96  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       74  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...Daniels