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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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972 FXUS64 KSJT 130836 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 336 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The upper-level ridge will sit over our area for much of the day before sliding more to the east this evening and overnight. As a result, our hot and dry conditions will remain intact for the short term. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with slightly higher dewpoints, putting heat index values at or above our Heat Advisory threshold of 105 for a few of our counties this afternoon. Because of this and the compounding impacts of heat, we`ve issued a Heat Advisory for Throckmorton, Haskell, and Shackelford counties from 1 to 9 PM today. Other areas will see heat indices in the upper 90s to around 104. Temperatures tonight will remain on the warmer side, thanks to the low level jet keeping winds a tad higher, limiting radiational cooling. Lows will be the warmest in the Big Country, with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 The upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across West Central Texas through Thursday, with models showing a small possibility of a series of weak upper-level disturbances tracking through the area by the end of the week. If these upper-level disturbances come to fruition and line-up with the timing of a weak cold front tracking through the area, we could see rain chances increase for the Thursday into Friday time frame. However, at this time there is very little confidence in seeing rainfall, with the only slight chances being across parts of the Big Country. By late Friday and into the weekend, a stronger upper-level ridge is expected to build across the area, bringing even warmer and drier conditions to the area for this coming weekend. Temperatures are forecast to increase further, with high temperatures in the 100 to 108 degree range by Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed for this weekend given temperatures exceeding 105 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Scattered low clouds will be possible for a few hours this morning at KJCT and KSOA. We could see brief MVFR CIGs, but conditions should remain mainly VFR for the next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty on and off over the next 24 hours, with winds peaking this afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 102 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 101 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 98 74 98 74 / 10 0 0 0 Brownwood 100 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 103 78 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for Haskell-Shackelford-Throckmorton. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...AP