111
FXUS64 KSJT 070546
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch in effect today into Monday afternoon for
  central, eastern and southeastern parts of the area.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms anticipated this
  morning through Monday afternoon, some with locally heavy
  rainfall.

- Warming and drying trend expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Another update this evening. Was originally going to let the Flood
Watch expire at 10 PM, but have reconsidered. Latest HRRR and
NAMnest are breaking out convection earlier than expected, moving
some of back into the Hill Country counties before sunrise. This
convection would then drift west back across much of the area
covered by the current Flood Watch before 18Z. These models also
continue to show PWAT values well above 2 inches across the
southeast portions of the area, with model rain totals in the 1 to
3 inch range (with more isolated totals back over 5 inches). With
all this in mind, will opt to just extend the Flood Watch into
the afternoon across the area. If the convection doesn`t develop
as the models indicate, or if it looks like the watch can trim
some counties, than later shifts can do that pretty easily.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Stubborn weak tropical remnant circulations, along with deep
tropical-like moisture (precipitable water values from 1.5" to 2.2")
will persist over the area at least one more day. We have seen
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop, mainly
south of I-20 this afternoon. Most of this activity is producing up
to 2" of rainfall so far, and we have had to issue a few Flood
Advisories. But any of these storms will have the potential to
produce higher totals, potentially resulting in localized flash
flooding, since anything that falls will almost immediately runoff
due to the saturated grounds. With that in mind, will leave the
Flash Flood Watch in place through tonight. Although we could see
additional locally heavy downpours Monday afternoon as well, will
not extend the watch through tomorrow just yet, and allow the
midnight shift to assess with the latest model data tonight. As far
as temperatures go, the humid conditions will keep overnight lows
mainly in the low to mid 70s, and highs tomorrow are expected to
range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

An upper level high looks to center near Arizona next week, putting
us on the eastern edge of the high pressure system. Weak upper level
disturbances are expected to rotate around the high for the first
half of next week. These weak sources of upper lift combined with
above normal PWATs will allow for isolated storms in the
afternoon/evenings for Tuesday and Wednesday. Coverage of any
thunderstorm activity should be low and rainfall amounts look to
generally stay below an inch for this time period. Temperatures
will gradually warm as the 850mb thermal ridge inches closer to
our area each day. Highs are expected to reach into the upper 90s
for the northwestern portions of our area by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Expect a few hours of MVFR ceilings at most of the terminals this
morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions Monday afternoon and
evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected late
this morning and afternoon and have PROB30 groups for the
terminals, besides KABI. In addition, a few storms may move into
the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country after 09Z, due to
favorable nocturnal conditions for convection again. For now going
with just VCSH at the southeast terminals, but will watch radar
trends for possible amendments if storms develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  91  73  92 /   0  20  10  10
San Angelo  72  90  72  91 /   0  10  10  10
Junction    70  89  70  90 /  10  10  10  20
Brownwood   72  89  71  90 /  10  10  10  20
Sweetwater  73  92  73  94 /   0  10  10  10
Ozona       71  89  71  90 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       70  87  70  88 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Brown-Coke-Coleman-Concho-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Tom
Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...21