972
FXUS64 KSJT 130836
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
336 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The upper-level ridge will sit over our area for much of the day
before sliding more to the east this evening and overnight. As a
result, our hot and dry conditions will remain intact for the short
term. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with slightly
higher dewpoints, putting heat index values at or above our Heat
Advisory threshold of 105 for a few of our counties this afternoon.
Because of this and the compounding impacts of heat, we`ve issued a
Heat Advisory for Throckmorton, Haskell, and Shackelford counties
from 1 to 9 PM today. Other areas will see heat indices in the upper
90s to around 104. Temperatures tonight will remain on the warmer
side, thanks to the low level jet keeping winds a tad higher,
limiting radiational cooling. Lows will be the warmest in the Big
Country, with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

The upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across West Central
Texas through Thursday, with models showing a small possibility of
a series of weak upper-level disturbances tracking through the
area by the end of the week. If these upper-level disturbances
come to fruition and line-up with the timing of a weak cold front
tracking through the area, we could see rain chances increase for
the Thursday into Friday time frame. However, at this time there
is very little confidence in seeing rainfall, with the only slight
chances being across parts of the Big Country.

By late Friday and into the weekend, a stronger upper-level ridge
is expected to build across the area, bringing even warmer and
drier conditions to the area for this coming weekend. Temperatures
are forecast to increase further, with high temperatures in the
100 to 108 degree range by Sunday. Heat Advisories will likely be
needed for this weekend given temperatures exceeding 105 degrees
on both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Scattered low clouds will be possible for a few hours this morning
at KJCT and KSOA. We could see brief MVFR CIGs, but conditions
should remain mainly VFR for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
gusty on and off over the next 24 hours, with winds peaking this
afternoon with gusts around 20 to 25 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    102  78 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 101  77 102  76 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    98  74  98  74 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood  100  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 103  78 103  78 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       96  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
for Haskell-Shackelford-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...AP