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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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319 FXUS64 KSJT 131705 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 The upper-level ridge will sit over our area for much of the day before sliding more to the east this evening and overnight. As a result, our hot and dry conditions will remain intact for the short term. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with slightly higher dewpoints, putting heat index values at or above our Heat Advisory threshold of 105 for a few of our counties this afternoon. Because of this and the compounding impacts of heat, we`ve issued a Heat Advisory for Throckmorton, Haskell, and Shackelford counties from 1 to 9 PM today. Other areas will see heat indices in the upper 90s to around 104. Temperatures tonight will remain on the warmer side, thanks to the low level jet keeping winds a tad higher, limiting radiational cooling. Lows will be the warmest in the Big Country, with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...Heat Wave Expected This Weekend... The main upper-level feature for the second half of this week and through the weekend is a 595dam ridge as it continues to be parked over the southern Plains. Another day of highs in the 100-105 degree range is expected as a result of the persistent heat dome. This feature will likely be interrupted on Thursday as an upper trough should move across the northern and central Plains. Weak surface troughing and a slight moisture increase Thursday afternoon could result in a few showers developing over the higher terrain from the Panhandle southward to the Permian Basin. For now, chances for rain were kept low on Thursday afternoon and evening due to lowering confidence levels. For this weekend through early next week, the upper-level ridge should rebuild across Oklahoma and north Texas, leading to hotter temperatures. This heat wave could potentially be stronger and more widespread than what we saw earlier this week as 850mb temperatures could reach 24-27 deg C and 591 dam heights could extend all the way to the northern Plains by Sunday. High temperatures during this period look to reach 105-108 degrees for most locations, especially the Concho Valley and Big Country. Assuming this comes to fruition, Heat Advisories will likely be needed for consecutive days this weekend. Those who will be participating in outdoor activities this weekend, especially with the school year starting, are advised to take precautions to limit exposure to the dangerous heat. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions will remain in place for the remainder of the TAF period. Expect a cumulus field to develop again this afternoon around 9kft, along with gusty winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 78 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 77 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 74 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 75 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 78 103 78 104 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 74 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 74 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Haskell- Shackelford-Throckmorton. && $$ SHORT TERM...AP LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...41