319
FXUS64 KSJT 131705
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

The upper-level ridge will sit over our area for much of the day
before sliding more to the east this evening and overnight. As a
result, our hot and dry conditions will remain intact for the short
term. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, with slightly
higher dewpoints, putting heat index values at or above our Heat
Advisory threshold of 105 for a few of our counties this afternoon.
Because of this and the compounding impacts of heat, we`ve issued a
Heat Advisory for Throckmorton, Haskell, and Shackelford counties
from 1 to 9 PM today. Other areas will see heat indices in the upper
90s to around 104. Temperatures tonight will remain on the warmer
side, thanks to the low level jet keeping winds a tad higher,
limiting radiational cooling. Lows will be the warmest in the Big
Country, with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...Heat Wave Expected This Weekend...

The main upper-level feature for the second half of this week and
through the weekend is a 595dam ridge as it continues to be parked
over the southern Plains.  Another day of highs in the 100-105
degree range is expected as a result of the persistent heat dome.
This feature will likely be interrupted on Thursday as an upper
trough should move across the northern and central Plains.  Weak
surface troughing and a slight moisture increase Thursday afternoon
could result in a few showers developing over the higher terrain
from the Panhandle southward to the Permian Basin.  For now, chances
for rain were kept low on Thursday afternoon and evening due to
lowering confidence levels.

For this weekend through early next week, the upper-level ridge
should rebuild across Oklahoma and north Texas, leading to hotter
temperatures. This heat wave could potentially be stronger and more
widespread than what we saw earlier this week as 850mb temperatures
could reach 24-27 deg C and 591 dam heights could extend all the way
to the northern Plains by Sunday. High temperatures during this
period look to reach 105-108 degrees for most locations, especially
the Concho Valley and Big Country. Assuming this comes to fruition,
Heat Advisories will likely be needed for consecutive days this
weekend. Those who will be participating in outdoor activities this
weekend, especially with the school year starting, are advised to
take precautions to limit exposure to the dangerous heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions will remain in place for the remainder of the TAF
period. Expect a cumulus field to develop again this afternoon
around 9kft, along with gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78 102  78 103 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  77 102  76 102 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   75 101  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  78 103  78 104 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       74  96  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Haskell-
Shackelford-Throckmorton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...41