912
FXUS64 KSJT 021754
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1254 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase across the
  area this afternoon.

- Localized heavy rainfall could occur with any strong cells that
  develop.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Thursday through Friday, with warm and humid conditions
  persisting.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Another cloudy, humid, and potentially wet day is on tap. This is
partly due to the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, whose associated
upper-level low is centered over northern Mexico.  Low-level flow
will continue to push gulf moisture into west-central Texas from the
southeast. Meanwhile, a diffuse east-west frontal boundary is
located across the region, which should lift northeastward by this
afternoon.  PWAT values should increase to between 1.75-2 inches
through the day and increase the potential for heavy rainfall. A
piece of mid-level energy will move northward around the remnant
tropical low and should support chances for thunderstorm development
this afternoon.  Storms are not expected to become strong or severe,
but have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall which could
lead to flooding concerns.  Storms should diminish after sunset this
evening with some lingering scattered showers overnight.  Given the
cloud cover and rain showers, high temperatures should be held down
in the low to mid 80s again for most areas.  The exception will be
in easternmost counties such as Brown and San Saba, where cloud
cover and rain chances are lower and highs could reach the low 90s.from the


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through Friday, with mainly dry conditions expected for
the weekend into early next week. The subtropical ridge will
remain over the northwestern Gulf through the end of the week,
with a mid/upper level trough out west. This pattern will keep
persistent southerly flow filtering in Gulf moisture across the
region through the end of the week. The airmass will remain very
moist, with precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2+ inches.
Any showers or storms that do develop will likely become efficient
rain producers, with the potential for localized flooding.
Temperatures will be mild for this time of year, due to the
increase in moisture and cloud cover. Expect warm and humid
conditions, with highs generally in the low 80s to low 90s for the
end of the work week, and overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.

Warmer and slightly drier conditions are expected this weekend
and into early next week, as the subtropical ridge shifts
westward with time. Daytime highs will climb back into the 90s,
with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions with occasional MVFR ceilings expected through this
evening, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms affecting
the terminals through most of the period. Ceilings are expected
to lower to MVFR across most of the area late tonight into
tomorrow morning, with some IFR ceilings also possible across the
far southern terminals, especially at KSOA. Expect some reduced
visibilities associated with convection (primarily MVFR). Winds
will remain light southeasterly through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  71  85  73 /  40  50  70  40
San Angelo  82  70  84  71 /  60  60  60  30
Junction    84  70  84  71 /  60  40  60  30
Brownwood   88  72  86  73 /  40  40  60  40
Sweetwater  83  70  85  72 /  50  50  70  30
Ozona       78  70  81  71 /  70  50  60  30
Brady       86  70  83  71 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24