453
FXUS64 KSJT 101916
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
216 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across our
southeast counties this afternoon and have added in a mention of
thunder for these areas this afternoon and early evening. Expect
this activity to quickly dissipate this evening. Overnight lows will
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Thursday, an upper level ridge
will remain centered across the western CONUS with an inverted
trough across South Texas. Although an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Thursday afternoon, mainly across
our southeast counties closest to the aforementioned upper level
trough, mainly dry conditions are forecast across the region. Highs
will be near seasonal normals, in the mid to near 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

A fairly large upper level high will be centered over Utah on
Friday, and over the Utah/Colorado border Saturday. A weak inverted
trough will shift northwest over part of the Rio Grande Valley, and
will extend from our area into part of northern Mexico. With an
increase in moisture, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday. This will be
mainly in the afternoon hours, and the best rain chances will be
Saturday in our southern counties. At this time, conservatively
carrying slight chance PoP mainly south of a Sonora-Menard-Mason
line Friday afternoon, and generally south of an Ozona to San Angelo
to Richland Springs line Saturday afternoon. Possible thunderstorm
hazards include lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.
With increased cloud cover, temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler Saturday and to a lesser extent Friday.

Seeing some model indication that the inverted trough may hold
together and shift across our central and northern counties on Sunday.
May have a few associated few showers and thunderstorms Sunday,
but confidence is too low at this time to include in the forecast
for Sunday. For the first part of next week, hotter temperatures
are expected Monday-Wednesday with increasing 850mb temperatures
and proximity of the upper level high. Daily highs are expected to
be in the upper 90s to 101 in the Big Country and Concho Valley,
and in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions and winds below 10 knots will prevail through the
next 24 hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this
afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the current TAF
package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  97  73  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  71 100  71  98 /   0  10   0  10
Junction    69  95  71  92 /  10  10   0  20
Brownwood   71  96  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  72  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       69  94  69  92 /  10  10   0  10
Brady       70  94  71  93 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...Daniels