863
FXUS64 KSJT 030529
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist across the area
  this afternoon and evening.

- Heavy rainfall is possible with the stronger cells, which may
  result in localized flooding.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Thursday through Friday, with warm and humid conditions
  persisting.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

As of 1 PM, several bands of showers and a few thunderstorms were
lifting north across roughly the southern half of the forecast
area. This is in response to a weak disturbance lifting north out
of Mexico, within a plume of tropical moisture from the remnants
of Tropical Storm Barry. This activity will continue to lift north
this afternoon, with additional showers and storms likely
developing. A very moist airmass (Precipitable Water 2.0-2.25
inches) will contribute to locally heavy downpours and a threat
for some localized flooding at times this afternoon. Rain chances
will persist tonight but areal coverage should be a bit lower due
to the diurnal nature. Another round of showers and storms will be
possible again tomorrow, especially during the afternoon hours
once again. Precipitable water values will remain very high, so
localized flooding will again be a concern tomorrow. Warm and
humid conditions will persist through tomorrow, with lows tonight
mainly in the lower 70s, and highs tomorrow afternoon in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Tomorrow still looks to be the last day with fairly widespread
precipitation across the area, with the activity in the afternoon
persisting into the evening hours. After that though, the upper
level ridge will begin to build across Southwest US and rain
chances will begin to dwindle. Some scattered mainly diurnal
showers and storms will again be possible for the
afternoon/evening of the 4th so there may be some rain to dodge
for fireworks Friday Night. A little less activity expected for
Saturday and Sunday, before mainly dry conditions return for much
of next week.

After the cool conditions of the last few days, will see a little
more sun and a little warmer temperatures for the 4th with highs
in the upper 80s, climbing back into the low to mid 90s for the
weekend. With the center of the upper high remaining off to the
west, and with wet soils helping to mitigate temperature climb a
few degrees, looks like we should be able to keep temperatures
below the 100 degree mark for at least the beginning and middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR to MVFR ceilings with rain showers will continue to be the
main concern for the next 24 hours. Ceilings and visibilities
look to go IFR later this morning through this afternoon. However,
low visibilities should be short-lived in the heavier showers that
occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     84  73  86  72 /  80  50  60  10
San Angelo  84  71  88  71 /  70  50  50  10
Junction    84  72  87  71 /  70  50  50  10
Brownwood   85  73  86  72 /  60  50  50  10
Sweetwater  84  72  89  72 /  70  50  50  10
Ozona       81  70  86  70 /  60  50  40  10
Brady       83  71  85  71 /  60  50  50  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SK