854
FXUS64 KSJT 020557
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1257 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist across
  the area this afternoon and evening.

- Localized heavy rainfall could occur with any strong cells that
  develop.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
  Thursday through Friday, with warm and humid conditions
  persisting.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf into the Southern Plains,
with a weakness across northern Mexico and West Texas. Abundant
tropical moisture is advecting north from northeast Mexico and South
Texas, with precipitable water (PWAT) values between 1.6 and 1.9
inches across West Central Texas. Scattered showers are currently
occurring across the area and expect an increase in coverage this
afternoon as we see a bit more heating across the region. The main
concern with any storms that develop will be locally heavy rainfall.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A similar setup is expected on Wednesday with abundant tropical
moisture across the region. Scattered to numerous showers, and a few
thunderstorms, are expected during the day. Again, the main concern
will be locally heavy rainfall. The expected showers and
thunderstorms along with extensive cloud cover will help to keep
temperatures well below seasonal normals. Highs will be in the low
to mid 80s for most locations, with upper 80s to near 90 for our
eastern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through Friday, with mainly dry conditions expected for
the weekend into early next week. The subtropical ridge will
remain over the northwestern Gulf through the end of the week,
with a mid/upper level trough out west. This pattern will keep
persistent southerly flow filtering in Gulf moisture across the
region through the end of the week. The airmass will remain very
moist, with precipitable water values between 1.75 and 2+ inches.
Any showers or storms that do develop will likely become efficient
rain producers, with the potential for localized flooding.
Temperatures will be mild for this time of year, due to the
increase in moisture and cloud cover. Expect warm and humid
conditions, with highs generally in the low 80s to low 90s for the
end of the work week, and overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.

Warmer and slightly drier conditions are expected this weekend
and into early next week, as the subtropical ridge shifts
westward with time. Daytime highs will climb back into the 90s,
with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR to occasional MVFR conditions in showers should continue for
today, especially after 12Z. Chances for thunderstorms increase
by 20Z, and ceilings could briefly go below IFR in heavier
rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  71  85  72 /  40  40  60  40
San Angelo  83  70  84  71 /  60  50  60  40
Junction    85  70  84  70 /  60  40  50  40
Brownwood   90  71  86  72 /  20  30  40  40
Sweetwater  85  70  85  72 /  50  40  60  50
Ozona       80  69  81  70 /  70  60  60  40
Brady       86  70  84  70 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK