477
FXUS64 KSJT 171824
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
124 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...New LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...Heat Advisory extended through this evening for the Big
Country and Eastern Heartland...

No significant changes to the forecast through tonight except for
extending the Heat Advisory into San Saba and Brown counties
through this evening. The Heat Advisory for the Big Country also
remains in place through this evening. Upper-level ridging
continues to strengthen and remain steadfast across West Central
Texas, keeping hot and dry conditions in the forecast for the
remainder of the weekend and beyond. Highs today are expected to
range in the upper 90s to 106, with heat indices in some areas of
the Big Country nearing the 108 mark. Overnight lows tonight will
only fall into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Very hot and dry conditions will continue through the next work
week due to a strong upper level ridge.

An upper level ridge will remain entrenched over our region
through the next work week, resulting in continued hot and dry
conditions. Expect highs generally in the 105-109 F range north
of I-10 and 101-106 elsewhere each day Monday through Thursday. The
overall hottest days will likely be Tuesday and Wednesday when
the upper ridge and 850 mb thermal ridge peaks in strength over
West Central Texas (500 mb heights around 597 dm and 850 mb
temperatures of 30-31 C). One interesting thing to note is that
the NAM12 does try to bring a weak cold front into the region from
the northeast, which would result in slightly cooler temperatures
for Tuesday in the Big Country and eastern parts of the forecast
area. However, the confidence in that occurring is low at the
moment, and ensemble members from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble
systems are in very good agreement in 105+ temperatures for those
areas (NBM probabilities of max temperatures of 105+ degrees for
Monday through Thursday are 70 to 95% for the Concho Valley and
Big Country, and generally 30-70% for the Heartland). Overnight
relief will not be much, with lows in the mid to upper 70s each
morning. Needless to say, additional Heat Advisories, (and
potentially an Excessive Heat Warning at some point) will likely
be needed over the next several days.

Weakening of the 500 mb ridge and 850 mb thermal ridge will result
in slightly cooler temperatures Friday, with highs in the 99-105
range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

VFR next 24 hours. Mainly south to southeast winds 10 KTS or
less, but occasional gusts up to 18 KTS possible this afternoon at
KSJT and KABI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Abundant, dry fuels in combination with very hot temperatures,
low afternoon relative humidities, and afternoon breezes, will
bring an increasing risk of significant fires through Wednesday,
mainly to the Big Country. A Rangeland Fire Danger statement (RFD)
is in effect for the Big Country this afternoon, and additional
RFDs will likely be needed in the coming days.

SJH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     79 105  77 106 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  76 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    74 100  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   75 105  73 106 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  79 106  78 107 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       74 100  73 101 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       75 101  75 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for Brown-Callahan-Fisher-
Haskell-Jones-Nolan-San Saba-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Coke-Coleman-
Concho-Irion-McCulloch-Runnels-Sterling-Tom Green.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SJH
AVIATION...04