![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
477 FXUS64 KSJT 171824 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...New LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 ...Heat Advisory extended through this evening for the Big Country and Eastern Heartland... No significant changes to the forecast through tonight except for extending the Heat Advisory into San Saba and Brown counties through this evening. The Heat Advisory for the Big Country also remains in place through this evening. Upper-level ridging continues to strengthen and remain steadfast across West Central Texas, keeping hot and dry conditions in the forecast for the remainder of the weekend and beyond. Highs today are expected to range in the upper 90s to 106, with heat indices in some areas of the Big Country nearing the 108 mark. Overnight lows tonight will only fall into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Very hot and dry conditions will continue through the next work week due to a strong upper level ridge. An upper level ridge will remain entrenched over our region through the next work week, resulting in continued hot and dry conditions. Expect highs generally in the 105-109 F range north of I-10 and 101-106 elsewhere each day Monday through Thursday. The overall hottest days will likely be Tuesday and Wednesday when the upper ridge and 850 mb thermal ridge peaks in strength over West Central Texas (500 mb heights around 597 dm and 850 mb temperatures of 30-31 C). One interesting thing to note is that the NAM12 does try to bring a weak cold front into the region from the northeast, which would result in slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday in the Big Country and eastern parts of the forecast area. However, the confidence in that occurring is low at the moment, and ensemble members from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble systems are in very good agreement in 105+ temperatures for those areas (NBM probabilities of max temperatures of 105+ degrees for Monday through Thursday are 70 to 95% for the Concho Valley and Big Country, and generally 30-70% for the Heartland). Overnight relief will not be much, with lows in the mid to upper 70s each morning. Needless to say, additional Heat Advisories, (and potentially an Excessive Heat Warning at some point) will likely be needed over the next several days. Weakening of the 500 mb ridge and 850 mb thermal ridge will result in slightly cooler temperatures Friday, with highs in the 99-105 range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR next 24 hours. Mainly south to southeast winds 10 KTS or less, but occasional gusts up to 18 KTS possible this afternoon at KSJT and KABI. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Abundant, dry fuels in combination with very hot temperatures, low afternoon relative humidities, and afternoon breezes, will bring an increasing risk of significant fires through Wednesday, mainly to the Big Country. A Rangeland Fire Danger statement (RFD) is in effect for the Big Country this afternoon, and additional RFDs will likely be needed in the coming days. SJH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 79 105 77 106 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 76 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 74 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 75 105 73 106 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 79 106 78 107 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 74 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for Brown-Callahan-Fisher- Haskell-Jones-Nolan-San Saba-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Coke-Coleman- Concho-Irion-McCulloch-Runnels-Sterling-Tom Green. && $$ SHORT TERM...TP LONG TERM....SJH AVIATION...04