002
FXUS64 KSJT 131820
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
120 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The weakness in the upper level ridge will expand more to the
northeast today, providing better rain chances and slightly cooler
temperatures. With moisture increasing throughout the column, some
upper level support, and diurnal heating, we could see a few storms
this afternoon. The best chance for rain this afternoon will be in
the I-10 corridor and south. However, CAMs are varying pretty
significantly with coverage in our area, with models having anywhere
from zero activity to activity as far north as the southern Big
Country. The main hazards with any storms that develop will be
lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Precipitation
chances will die down by the evening. The HRRR does have an isolated
storm moving into our southern counties in the early morning
tomorrow. But, right now, the majority of models are keeping our
area dry tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Drier and warmer conditions return Monday into Wednesday. A weak
upper trough, however, will continue over eastern and southern
Texas, so can not exclude one or two showers or thunderstorms
into Wednesday, but the potential will be low, and for the most
part, not be included in the forecast. Main concern Monday into
Wednesday may be a return to 100 degree temperatures over the Big
Country and Concho Valley, as a surface trough brings gusty
southwest winds at times.

A better chance of showers and thunderstorms returns late
Wednesday night into Friday as a weak cold front pushes into the
region and stalls out. Rain/cloud cover should bring highs back
down into the lower to mid 90s. Could see a few areas of locally
heavy rainfall as the atmosphere becomes more more tropical-
like. Gusty winds and dangerous lightning, though, will be the
main concerns.



&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals through much of
the period. Isolated to widely scattered convection is possible
across the southern terminals this afternoon. Best chance is at
KJCT and will include a TEMPO thunder group this forecast cycle,
with VCSH/VCTS at KSOA and KJCT. Some stratus development is
possible again across the southern terminals towards daybreak
Sunday morning. Will include MVFR ceilings at KJCT, KBBD and KSOA
after 10Z. South winds will gust to around 18 knots this afternoon
but will subside by sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     73  97  74 100 /   0  10   0   0
San Angelo  73  98  73 101 /  10  10   0  10
Junction    73  93  73  96 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   72  96  72  99 /   0  10   0   0
Sweetwater  73  98  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       71  91  72  95 /  10  10   0  10
Brady       72  94  72  96 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24