499
FXUS64 KSJT 181921
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
221 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Early this morning, quiet weather across our area, but that will
probably change by sunrise. As of 230 AM, one boundary was
stalled near the I-10 corridor, with another moving south through
the area, with showers developing east of San Angelo. Most of the
Hi-Res models continue this activity with scattered thunderstorms
developing in the next few hours and lasting through the early
afternoon. Most of the this activity will be located along and
south of an Mertzon to San Angelo to San Sable line. Again, the
severe weather threat is very low, but the storms will produce
dangerous lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Going
with a dry forecast from late this afternoon through tonight as
conditions will unfavorable for convective development. A little
cooler today, with highs in the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A broad trough will be across the Plains and the eastern U.S. on
Sunday. At the same time, a ridge will sit across the southwestern
U.S. This will leave us largely pinned between the two if not on
the western edge of the trough. A cold frontal boundary will
linger across west Central Texas during this same time period. As
a result, this should serve as a focal point for rainfall on
Sunday and Monday. The trough aloft should aid in the develop and
help maintain the thunderstorms. As ample moisture will remain
across the region, we will need to watch out for the possibility
of excessive rainfall to occur. The Weather Prediction Center has
outlooked our area for excessive rainfall (Marginal Risk) on
Sunday and Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Area of showers and storms will continue to push south this
afternoon. Will clear the last terminal (KSOA) early this
afternoon and then leave VFR conditions in its wake. WInds will
remain light and generally out of the northeast to east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  93  71  95 /   0   0   0  20
San Angelo  70  97  71  99 /   0  10   0  30
Junction    71  94  70  96 /   0  10   0  20
Brownwood   69  92  68  95 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  71  95  73  96 /   0  10   0  30
Ozona       70  95  71  95 /   0  10   0  20
Brady       70  92  70  95 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...07