527
FXUS64 KSJT 161800
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
100 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The upper level ridge will maintain its control over our area
today, keeping the forecast hot and dry again. In fact, 850mb
temperatures will warm a degree or so across the area, likely
resulting in highs being 1 or 2 degrees warmer as well. Areas
along and north of Interstate 20 will flirt with Heat Advisory
criteria, but most areas should stay one or two degrees below the
105 degree temperature and heat index value needed for an advisory
to be issued. Otherwise, mainly clear skies will persist, as well
as gusty south winds. For tonight, persistence will prevail with
lows mainly in the 70s, and southerly winds from 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms possible beginning Wednesday night and
continuing through at least the middle of next week, as upper level
ridging is replaced by an upper trough. A weak cold front moving
into the region Wednesday night will also bring some low level lift
to the region. There is the potential to some locally heavy rainfall
and localized flooding, particularly beginning Saturday as
precipital water values increase from 1 to 1.5 inches to 1.5 to 2
inches...which would be beneficial to much of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours at all terminals.
Gusts between 15 to 20 kts will be possible for all terminals this
afternoon but should diminish before 00Z. Otherwise, expect
southerly winds to continue through the overnight hours with
sustained speeds at less than 10 kts. A cold front will approach the
KABI terminal late in the period tomorrow morning, causing the wind
to begin to shift to a more westerly direction. Showers/storms will
also be possible with this frontal passage but most activity looks
to hold off until after the 18Z timeframe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     77  99  73  92 /   0  20  20  40
San Angelo  75 103  74  96 /   0  20  10  50
Junction    73  99  73  95 /   0  10  10  50
Brownwood   74  98  73  93 /   0  20  10  40
Sweetwater  76 100  73  94 /   0  20  20  40
Ozona       72  97  72  94 /   0  10  10  40
Brady       73  98  73  92 /   0  20  10  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...50