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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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536 FXUS64 KSHV 161606 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1106 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1057 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 No large scale changes are required to the forecast package at this time as it pertains to conditions through 00Z Saturday. Morning heating accelerates right on schedule, into the low to middle 90s as of 16Z, aiming for the upper 90s and lower 100s by midafternoon. Moisture pooling at low levels will continue to elevate heat indices into the afternoon. Our current heat products remain in effect and an extension is likely with this afternoon`s forecast package. A few scattered showers and storms are possible across portions of Louisiana east of Natchitoches and south of Monroe, but no widespread activity is expected. A few storms may be possible along the northern border of the CWA later this evening, but current timing does not merit inclusion in the wx grids before 00Z. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Dangerous heat will continue across the Four State Region through the weekend with little relief expected. This is due to ridging aloft that will persist through Saturday, keeping southerly winds below 10 mph and dew points in the muggy 70s. The little relief that is set to fully arrive will show up in the form of isolated showers and thunderstorms (10-20% chance) across central Louisiana parishes this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, a slowly approaching frontal boundary will boost compressional heating and temperature maximums into the lower 100s today and tomorrow which, in combination with high dew points, will continue Excessive Heat Warning conditions across more of the area. Overnight temperature minimums in the upper 70s/lower 80s will also offer little in the way of relief. Heat hazard products are almost fully certain to continue to be issued through this weekend with dangerous, prolonged heat contributing to cumulative heat stress. Adequate precautions and awareness are encouraged now against the elevated potential for heat illnesses. This includes (and is not limited to) altering outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside, checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A reprieve is finally on the horizon for the Four State Region as a frontal boundary arrives early next week. This will allow for winds out of the north to arrive on Monday that will gradually push the 70-degree isodrosotherm back west into Texas, introducing dew points in the 60s and temperature maximums in the mid-to-upper 90s (near normal for this time of the year). That said, long range guidance continues to paint a dry picture with Day 1-7 QPF totals still at or below 0.25-inch areawide. /16/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Surface high pressure to maintain light and variable winds at the start of the terminal forecast period, becoming southwest up to 7 knots by this afternoon. Winds to diminish to less than 5 knots after 17/00Z, becoming southwest by 17/06Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions to prevail across area terminals through the end of the forecast period at 07/12Z. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 102 81 102 81 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 101 78 102 79 / 10 10 10 10 DEQ 100 74 101 74 / 10 0 10 0 TXK 102 79 102 79 / 10 0 0 0 ELD 99 76 100 77 / 10 10 10 0 TYR 100 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 99 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 99 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050- 051-059>061-070>073. LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096- 097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ149-152-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...05