536
FXUS64 KSHV 161606
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1106 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

No large scale changes are required to the forecast package at
this time as it pertains to conditions through 00Z Saturday.
Morning heating accelerates right on schedule, into the low to
middle 90s as of 16Z, aiming for the upper 90s and lower 100s by
midafternoon. Moisture pooling at low levels will continue to
elevate heat indices into the afternoon. Our current heat products
remain in effect and an extension is likely with this afternoon`s
forecast package. A few scattered showers and storms are possible
across portions of Louisiana east of Natchitoches and south of
Monroe, but no widespread activity is expected. A few storms may
be possible along the northern border of the CWA later this
evening, but current timing does not merit inclusion in the wx
grids before 00Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Dangerous heat will continue across the Four State Region through
the weekend with little relief expected. This is due to ridging
aloft that will persist through Saturday, keeping southerly winds
below 10 mph and dew points in the muggy 70s. The little relief
that is set to fully arrive will show up in the form of isolated
showers and thunderstorms (10-20% chance) across central Louisiana
parishes this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, a
slowly approaching frontal boundary will boost compressional
heating and temperature maximums into the lower 100s today and
tomorrow which, in combination with high dew points, will continue
Excessive Heat Warning conditions across more of the area.
Overnight temperature minimums in the upper 70s/lower 80s will
also offer little in the way of relief.

Heat hazard products are almost fully certain to continue to be
issued through this weekend with dangerous, prolonged heat
contributing to cumulative heat stress. Adequate precautions and
awareness are encouraged now against the elevated potential for
heat illnesses. This includes (and is not limited to) altering
outdoor plans, taking frequent breaks if you must be outside,
checking the backseat of your vehicle, and knowing the signs and
symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

A reprieve is finally on the horizon for the Four State Region as
a frontal boundary arrives early next week. This will allow for
winds out of the north to arrive on Monday that will gradually
push the 70-degree isodrosotherm back west into Texas, introducing
dew points in the 60s and temperature maximums in the mid-to-upper
90s (near normal for this time of the year). That said, long range
guidance continues to paint a dry picture with Day 1-7 QPF totals
still at or below 0.25-inch areawide. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Surface high pressure to maintain light and variable winds at the
start of the terminal forecast period, becoming southwest up to 7
knots by this afternoon. Winds to diminish to less than 5 knots
after 17/00Z, becoming southwest by 17/06Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions to prevail across area terminals through the end of the
forecast period at 07/12Z. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102  81 102  81 /  10   0   0   0
MLU 101  78 102  79 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ 100  74 101  74 /  10   0  10   0
TXK 102  79 102  79 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  99  76 100  77 /  10  10  10   0
TYR 100  79 101  79 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  99  78 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  99  77  99  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-
     051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-
     097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ149-152-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05