453
FXUS64 KSHV 050540
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1240 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

 - Today will remain hot across the ArkLaTex, while the region
   sees a break from showers and thunderstorms.

 - Daily afternoon storm chances will resume Sunday, generally
   keeping east of the I-49 corridor, with increasing coverage as
   a system arrives midweek.

 - Highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s will continue throughout,
   with a possible warming trend towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

After several days in a row of active convection in the afternoon
and evening hours, today looks to be the lone break from this
pattern. The ArkLaTex will be freed from the influence of upper
level forcing and steering mechanisms, with a large area of high
pressure over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico, and a closed
low over the northeast Gulf and a developing Tropical Depression off
the Georgia and Carolina coast. A weak high over the Ozarks will
assist in keeping conditions quiet this afternoon. In the absence of
rainfall and with mostly sunny skies, temperatures will rapidly warm
to highs in the low to middle 90s areawide, with several sites
starting to aim for the upper 90s, followed by another warm and
muggy night of lows in the 70s.

Heading into Sunday, the stubborn high over the southwest will
attempt to amplify north and east enough to influence upper level
steering as far east as northeast Texas and adjacent regions of the
ArkLaTex. Introducing this mechanism to our very warm environment
rich with moisture spells the return of showers and storms on a daily
basis for the remainder of the forecast period. Consistent with the
projected steering aloft, the PoPs supplied by model guidance
indicate the highest rainfall chances across our northern, eastern
and southeastern zones, with the I-20 corridor of Texas remaining
comparably dry. It`s worth noting at this point that subtle changes
in the position of upper level features could have considerable
impacts on convective coverage at the surface. In a nutshell,
however, the ArkLaTex looks to be continuing with the classic
summertime routine of daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms fueled
by daytime heating.

The only exception to the above appears near midweek, when the
desert high looks to retrograde far enough west to allow an upper
level shortwave to swing south over the Ozarks. What impacts this
system will bring to the ArkLaTex are still hazy at this point,
represented primarily by rainfall chances across our northern zones
early Wednesday, expanding south through the afternoon and
retreating only slowly to the north overnight into Thursday,
followed by a return to the diurnally driven afternoon convection
pattern.

Highs early in the week will be warm but less extreme than recent
guidance suggested, with widespread middle 90s. At this time, long
range guidance indicates a warming trend late in the week with more
upper 90s returning to the maxT grids.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the 05/00Z TAF period, isolated to widely scattered convection
will continue to linger through early to mid evening before slowly
diminishing a few hours after sunset. Convective debris clouds are
expected to persist while maintaining VFR conditions across our
airspace, but cannot rule out some patchy fog at a few sites near
daybreak with recent rainfall contributing to moist soils. Beyond
that, look for a cu field to redevelop areawide by late morning
with light S/SE winds generally ranging between 5-10 kts during
the daytime hours and slightly lower overnight. Convection looks
to be much more sparse in coverage on Saturday so did not include
any mention of VCSH/VCTS for the latter half of the period.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  78  96  77 /   0   0  20  10
MLU  96  75  97  75 /   0   0  20  10
DEQ  94  72  93  71 /   0   0  20  10
TXK  96  75  97  75 /   0   0  10  10
ELD  95  74  95  72 /   0  10  20  10
TYR  93  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  94  73  95  73 /   0   0  10  10
LFK  94  73  95  73 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19