406
FXUS64 KSHV 111153
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
653 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Upper-air analysis is showing high pressure over the southwest
CONUS, extending eastward into Texas. Models are in pretty good
agreement that this ridge will slowly shift to the east over the
next two days before centering over our region by Tuesday. In
response to this, temperatures will gradually increase from the
west as we head into next week. This means that today will
generally be our last "nice" day...simply meaning that heat index
values will remain below critical values and your skin won`t melt
when you walk outside. Temperatures will return to the 90s across
the region on Monday and heat index values will return to
dangerous levels for portions of east Texas that will most likely
prompt at least a Heat Advisory for portions of the area.

Radar imagery this morning is showing a cluster of thunderstorms
across central Oklahoma. These storms should continue to ride
along the northwest flow aloft and should they be able to keep
going, portions of our area, generally areas north of I-30, could
see these storms move through later this morning and into the
afternoon hours. Otherwise, the remainder of the area should
remain dry throughout the short-term period.

/33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Heating trend is going to continue into Tuesday, with afternoon
high temperatures returning to the mid 90s to around 100 degrees
across the region. Additionally, heat index values will range from
around 105 to 110 and should prompt at least a more widespread
Heat Advisory across the region. Wednesday and Thursday will be
slightly warmer than Tuesday, with highs ranging more from the mid
90s to lower 100s and heat index values once again reaching
dangerous levels. Honestly, it looks like the rest of next week is
going to be hot and miserable with temperatures ranging from the
mid 90s to lower 100s and heat products likely into next weekend.
There is some potential for showers and thunderstorms later in the
week for portions of the area, but confidence is not super high at
this time, and should anything develop, QPF amounts look to be on
the lower side. /33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A large complex of showers and thunderstorms is moving east-
southeast through Central and Eastern Oklahoma at the start of the
period. The southern flank of this convection will likely affect
Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Northeast Texas and Southwest
Arkansas. Model guidance has been consistent in weakening the
convection as it moves into our area later this morning. However,
the models have also not been handling this complex well. Thus,
the forecast is very uncertain. Given the poor model performance,
VCTS was inserted for KTXK between 11/18z and 11/22z. Current
thinking is the precip will not affect the other TAF sites.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with increasing
mid and high-level cloud cover.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  76  99  79 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  93  72  97  75 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  89  69  95  72 /  30  10  10   0
TXK  93  74  98  77 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  90  70  95  73 /  10  10   0   0
TYR  97  76  99  78 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  94  74  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  97  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09