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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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406 FXUS64 KSHV 111153 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 653 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper-air analysis is showing high pressure over the southwest CONUS, extending eastward into Texas. Models are in pretty good agreement that this ridge will slowly shift to the east over the next two days before centering over our region by Tuesday. In response to this, temperatures will gradually increase from the west as we head into next week. This means that today will generally be our last "nice" day...simply meaning that heat index values will remain below critical values and your skin won`t melt when you walk outside. Temperatures will return to the 90s across the region on Monday and heat index values will return to dangerous levels for portions of east Texas that will most likely prompt at least a Heat Advisory for portions of the area. Radar imagery this morning is showing a cluster of thunderstorms across central Oklahoma. These storms should continue to ride along the northwest flow aloft and should they be able to keep going, portions of our area, generally areas north of I-30, could see these storms move through later this morning and into the afternoon hours. Otherwise, the remainder of the area should remain dry throughout the short-term period. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Heating trend is going to continue into Tuesday, with afternoon high temperatures returning to the mid 90s to around 100 degrees across the region. Additionally, heat index values will range from around 105 to 110 and should prompt at least a more widespread Heat Advisory across the region. Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly warmer than Tuesday, with highs ranging more from the mid 90s to lower 100s and heat index values once again reaching dangerous levels. Honestly, it looks like the rest of next week is going to be hot and miserable with temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to lower 100s and heat products likely into next weekend. There is some potential for showers and thunderstorms later in the week for portions of the area, but confidence is not super high at this time, and should anything develop, QPF amounts look to be on the lower side. /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A large complex of showers and thunderstorms is moving east- southeast through Central and Eastern Oklahoma at the start of the period. The southern flank of this convection will likely affect Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas. Model guidance has been consistent in weakening the convection as it moves into our area later this morning. However, the models have also not been handling this complex well. Thus, the forecast is very uncertain. Given the poor model performance, VCTS was inserted for KTXK between 11/18z and 11/22z. Current thinking is the precip will not affect the other TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with increasing mid and high-level cloud cover. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 95 76 99 79 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 93 72 97 75 / 10 10 0 0 DEQ 89 69 95 72 / 30 10 10 0 TXK 93 74 98 77 / 10 10 0 0 ELD 90 70 95 73 / 10 10 0 0 TYR 97 76 99 78 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 94 74 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 96 74 97 75 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...09