411
FXUS64 KSHV 111754 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

 - Overall trend of less diurnally driven convection will
   continue today.

 - Rain chances increase slightly for the upcoming weekend with a
   slight risk for excessive rainfall across portions of southeast
   Texas and adjacent counties in Arkansas and Texas on Sunday.

 - Near triple digit temperatures will be possible through much of
   next week and with critical daytime heat indices, Heat
   Advisories will likely become necessary.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

An upper-level ridge across the Bahamas will gradually retrograde
west allowing for a warming trend across the ArkLaTex with
temperatures nearing the triple digits aross portions of north
Louisiana by Tuesday into Wednesday. However, along the western
periphery of the ridge, across mainly southeast Oklahoma and
adjacent counties in Texas and Arkansas, a lingering upper-level
trough will serve as the focus for periods of convection across
these areas from Saturday through Monday night. A mesoscale low
developing within the broader trough axis will linger across
central Oklahoma Saturday night, drifting northeast into Missouri
on Sunday. This feature could be the source for excessive rainfall
across portions of mainly southeast Oklahoma and adjacent
counties in Texas and Arkansas on Saturday night into Sunday.
However, excessive rainfall threat is forecast to diminish by
Sunday afternoon onward as upper-level support migrates east into
the Ohio River Valley. Because of the uncertainty in forecasting
the nuances of mesoscale factors that could contribute to
excessive rainfall, adjustments to the excessive rainfall forecast
can be expected through the weekend.

Otherwise, heat headlines can be expected across portions of the
ArkLaTex from late in the weekend onward as heat index values
approach 105 degrees. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A scattered cu field has developed across much of the region early
this afternoon, which will persist through early evening before
diminishing. In addition, some AC and cirrus cigs will be possible
as well over portions of E TX/N LA along/S of the I-20 corridor,
with isolated convection expected to develop through late
afternoon over these same areas before diminishing by/shortly
after 00Z. Confidence is a bit higher that LFK may be impacted by
the ongoing seabreeze convection over SE TX, and thus have added
VCTS with tempo thunder mention for mid and late afternoon.
Locally gusty winds, reduced vsbys, and brief MVFR cigs will be
possible in/near the convection before diminishing. AC/cirrus cigs
should linger overnight across Deep E TX/much of N LA, with a
stronger low level Srly flow yielding an increase in MVFR cigs
after 09Z over E TX, which may spread NNE into NW LA/Srn AR
by/after 12Z. These cigs may linger a bit longer than what was
observed this morning, before returning to VFR by the end of the
18Z TAF period. SSW winds 8-12kts, with occasional gusts to around
20kts over portions of E TX, will diminish to 5-10kts after 00Z.
/15/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  77  95  77 /  20  10  50  10
MLU  96  75  96  75 /  40  10  30  10
DEQ  94  72  92  71 /   0  10  40  40
TXK  97  76  97  75 /   0  10  40  30
ELD  95  74  95  73 /  20  10  40  10
TYR  94  75  94  74 /  10  10  40  20
GGG  95  74  94  74 /  20  10  50  20
LFK  94  74  94  74 /  40  10  70  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15