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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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799 FXUS64 KSHV 131602 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1102 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Temperatures continue to rapidly rise into the middle 90s as of the 16Z hour, aiming for afternoon highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Meanwhile, stubborn dew points have been slow to mix out, still sitting in the middle 70s in some locations, launching heat indices well into Heat Advisory criteria, a little ahead of schedule. Will be monitoring for the possible need for adjustment to products this afternoon. Quiet conditions continue, with mostly clear skies abounding, punctuated by a developing Cu field expanding north from Toledo Bend along the Red River basin. A few showers and storms across our southernmost counties and parishes are possible this afternoon, but do not look to become widespread. Ingested the most recent temperature and dew point obs and interpolated through to 00Z. /26/ && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Well, here we are...the day we have been talking about for the past few days...the day we start issuing heat products that will most likely be needed through the end of the week. Bottom line, upper-level ridging will continue to build into our region this week, prompting only warmer and warmer temperatures. For today, afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 90s to 100 degrees across the region. Heat index values will be in excess of 105 degrees today which has prompted a Heat Advisory to go into effect at 11 am this morning. There is a non zero chance for some thunderstorm development across our far southern zones this afternoon, but any QPF amounts will be on the lower side. The heat will continue on Wednesday as afternoon temperatures once again climb into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values will once again climb above 105 degrees across the area. As such, we will need at least a Heat Advisory for portions of the area and an Excessive Heat Warning for the rest. Here in lies the problem, with the current Heat Advisory in place for today, adding an Excessive Heat Warning for Wednesday complicates messaging. As such, I can assure you that some portions of the area will need this, but we will have to wait to actually put one out to make sure the message remains valid. /33/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 I am going to attempt to break down the long-term by days... Thursday: early morning temperatures will range from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees across the region. Temperatures will quickly climb back into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees by the afternoon hours. Heat index values in excess of 105 are once again expected with some locations climbing to or above 110 degrees. As a result, there will be a need for widespread Heat Advisory or Excessive Heat Warnings for the area. There are some low end PoPs in the forecast for afternoon diurnal convection, but confidence is pretty low right now. Friday: Copy and paste! Saturday: Copy and paste! Sunday: Copy and paste! Monday: Copy and paste! Try to stay cool! /33/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Winds will be somewhat variable across the region today, generally oscillating between southwesterly and southeasterly. Sustained wind speeds should remain below 10 kts. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions should prevail areawide with high cloud cover increasing from the north during the daytime hours. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 100 80 100 80 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 101 77 101 79 / 10 0 10 0 DEQ 98 74 99 74 / 10 0 0 0 TXK 100 78 101 78 / 10 10 0 0 ELD 98 75 99 76 / 10 10 10 0 TYR 99 78 98 78 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 99 77 98 76 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 98 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...09