863
FXUS64 KSHV 270229
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
929 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Rinse and repeat across the region as diurnally driven convection
has just about diminished for the evening. In the wake of the
showers and storms, cloud debris aloft will likely linger through
the overnight, as lows fall into the 70`s areawide. Beyond
adjusting the hourlies to match the latest trends, no major
updates are needed at this time, and any existing PoPs in the
gridded forecast have been removed for the overnight period.

KNAPP

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will continue through next week.

- Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible for the next several
  days. But chances will increase through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The upper-level ridge is still firmly in place over much of the
Southeast CONUS, so conditions will be similar to that of previous
days. Apparent temps are not projected to get high enough to
warrant an advisory to be issued today even though some places
will be on the cool side of criteria. Any diurnal convection that
develops this afternoon will likely dissipate in the first few
hours of the period, as has been the case with storms the past few
days. Temperatures will stay in the 70s as with partly cloudy
skies across the region.

Friday will have some more focused diurnal convection in our
northwest and southeastern zones thanks to the co-location of
upper-level forcing and mid-level moisture. To the northwest, an
upper-level shear axis in the southern Great Plains could assist
anything that initiates in the increased area of moisture. The
southeast will likely have a similar moisture profile with some
support from a retrograding inverted trough.

As the weekend approaches, the upper-level ridge that is in place
will try to retrograde and move to the west. This will allow for
more of the same heat and afternoon thunderstorm development
across the Four State Region. Monday could be the start of some
more widespread rain chances as the area of lift from the moving
upper-level ridge settles over the region. I have carried the
higher PoPs from the NBM from Monday through Thursday of next
week, but the coverage may change based on the actual movement of
the ridge. More widespread rain could help bring temperatures down
a touch, but not enough for it to be considered a relief from the
persistant heat. This component of the forecast will be up in the
air until there is more of a consensus on the ridge`s movement
next week. /57/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Scattered diurnal convection and terminal TSRA continues this
afternoon, with vicinity SHRA and TSRA prevailing for some of the
local terminals. Elsewhere, mainly across the AR terminals, the
afternoon SCT/BKN CU field has started to collapse, with daytime
heating coming to a close. Similar to previous nights the
diurnally driven SHRA/TSRA will become outflow dominate and fall
apart just before sunset. Overnight, remnant cloud debris will
likely linger, keeping some FEW/SCT FL200/250 through sunrise.
Rinse and repeat pattern will follow with early to mid afternoon
CU field below 5kft, with some high level cirrus aloft. Afternoon
diurnally driven TSRA will return with hi-res supported VCTS
expected around LFK and MLU close to 00z. That being said, it is
possible that other terminals see VCTS added in future updates.
Terminal winds will remain S/SW through the period between
5-10kt.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms
capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter
activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not
likely through tonight.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  96  77  97 /  20   0   0  10
MLU  74  95  76  96 /  20  10   0  10
DEQ  71  92  72  93 /  10  10   0  10
TXK  75  96  76  97 /   0  10   0  10
ELD  72  95  74  95 /  10   0   0  10
TYR  73  92  74  93 /  20  10   0   0
GGG  73  92  74  94 /  20  10   0   0
LFK  72  93  73  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...53