799
FXUS64 KSHV 131602
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1102 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Temperatures continue to rapidly rise into the middle 90s as of
the 16Z hour, aiming for afternoon highs in the upper 90s to lower
100s. Meanwhile, stubborn dew points have been slow to mix out,
still sitting in the middle 70s in some locations, launching heat
indices well into Heat Advisory criteria, a little ahead of
schedule. Will be monitoring for the possible need for adjustment
to products this afternoon. Quiet conditions continue, with mostly
clear skies abounding, punctuated by a developing Cu field
expanding north from Toledo Bend along the Red River basin. A few
showers and storms across our southernmost counties and parishes
are possible this afternoon, but do not look to become widespread.
Ingested the most recent temperature and dew point obs and
interpolated through to 00Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Well, here we are...the day we have been talking about for the
past few days...the day we start issuing heat products that will
most likely be needed through the end of the week. Bottom line,
upper-level ridging will continue to build into our region this
week, prompting only warmer and warmer temperatures. For today,
afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 90s to 100 degrees
across the region. Heat index values will be in excess of 105
degrees today which has prompted a Heat Advisory to go into effect
at 11 am this morning. There is a non zero chance for some
thunderstorm development across our far southern zones this
afternoon, but any QPF amounts will be on the lower side.

The heat will continue on Wednesday as afternoon temperatures once
again climb into the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index
values will once again climb above 105 degrees across the area.
As such, we will need at least a Heat Advisory for portions of the
area and an Excessive Heat Warning for the rest. Here in lies the
problem, with the current Heat Advisory in place for today, adding
an Excessive Heat Warning for Wednesday complicates messaging. As
such, I can assure you that some portions of the area will need
this, but we will have to wait to actually put one out to make
sure the message remains valid. /33/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

I am going to attempt to break down the long-term by days...

Thursday: early morning temperatures will range from the mid 70s
to around 80 degrees across the region. Temperatures will quickly
climb back into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees by the
afternoon hours. Heat index values in excess of 105 are once again
expected with some locations climbing to or above 110 degrees. As
a result, there will be a need for widespread Heat Advisory or
Excessive Heat Warnings for the area. There are some low end PoPs
in the forecast for afternoon diurnal convection, but confidence
is pretty low right now.

Friday: Copy and paste!

Saturday: Copy and paste!

Sunday: Copy and paste!

Monday: Copy and paste!

Try to stay cool!

/33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Winds will be somewhat variable across the region today, generally
oscillating between southwesterly and southeasterly. Sustained
wind speeds should remain below 10 kts. Otherwise, VFR flight
conditions should prevail areawide with high cloud cover
increasing from the north during the daytime hours.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100  80 100  80 /  10   0   0   0
MLU 101  77 101  79 /  10   0  10   0
DEQ  98  74  99  74 /  10   0   0   0
TXK 100  78 101  78 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  98  75  99  76 /  10  10  10   0
TYR  99  78  98  78 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  99  77  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  98  76  97  76 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...09