940
FXUS64 KSHV 150052
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

The surface boundary draped across southern Arkansas and northeast
Louisiana has served to trap a moisture pool to its south, across
much of the center of the ArkLaTex, resulting in hot, very humid
and just generally oppressive conditions today. The sort of
conditions in which one might melt 73 crayons (or at least attempt
to do so).

The upper level high responsible for the heat so far this week will
continue to be in control through much of this forecast period,
exerting its influence over the ArkLaTex. The initial high will
actually begin to lose its organization as the week continues, but
the pressure max overhead will get absorbed into a new upper level
high forming over the Four Corners region, coalescing into a massive
ridge which will hold us firmly in its grip throughout the forecast
period.

As a result, tomorrow looks to play out very similarly to today,
with rainfall chances, if any develop, confined to our easternmost
zones of northeast and central Louisiana. Being on the eastern
fringe of the high, these areas have the greatest (though still
slight) chance of moisture managing to form into afternoon
thunderstorms.

As with so much of this week, the temperatures remain on autopilot.
Lows at daybreak tomorrow morning will range from the middle 70s to
near or even reaching 80 degrees at our warmest sites. Highs will
again be in the upper 90s to lower 100s with dew points in the low
to mid 70s will result in heat index values between 105 and 109
degrees, thus have seen fit to continue our existing Heat Advisory
which will be in effect continuously through 8 PM Thursday, with
further extensions likely and upgrades possible.

/26/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

We swear there are actual human forecasters writing and updating
these discussions and not just a "copy and paste" function. Alas, it
does start to feel that way after days on end of the same.

Afternoon highs will continue to reach the upper 90s to just
above 100 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and
a few sites possibly not even dipping below 80 by daybreak. The
stubborn humidity may relent slightly later in the week and more
so into the weekend, but apparent temperatures are still expected
to reach Heat Advisory criteria for several hours each afternoon.

The exact behavior of the omnipresent upper level high pressure
system has been a point of some fluctuation from one forecast
update to the next lately. The latest model consensus suggests
that the high may remain centered far enough to the west through
Saturday to allow daily slight chances of scattered thunderstorms
each afternoon, primarily across our southeast quadrant, affecting
our central and eastern Louisiana parishes.

By Sunday, the high begins to drift eastward as the vast upper
level ridge amplifies over the Front Range and extends over the
Great Plains and into the Midwest. In a nutshell, this will hinder
even our meager precip chances from Sunday through the first half
of next week. Even the tail end of this extended forecast period
finds the upper level high meandering very little, still in place
over Colorado and New Mexico, with no significant break in this
established hot and dry pattern in sight yet.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 741 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

For the 15/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
this period as a cu field slowly diminishes this evening along
with some very isolated convection across our eastern airspace.
Some residual cirrus from decaying convection will persist this
evening and overnight, but otherwise expect mostly SKC. Cu field
will redevelop after 15Z on Thursday with light and variable winds
becoming SW between 5-10 kts.

/19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  80 100  80 101 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  79 100  78 101 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  74  99  74 100 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  79 101  79 102 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  76  99  76  99 /  10  10   0  10
TYR  79  99  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  78  98  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  76  97  76  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19