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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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940 FXUS64 KSHV 150052 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The surface boundary draped across southern Arkansas and northeast Louisiana has served to trap a moisture pool to its south, across much of the center of the ArkLaTex, resulting in hot, very humid and just generally oppressive conditions today. The sort of conditions in which one might melt 73 crayons (or at least attempt to do so). The upper level high responsible for the heat so far this week will continue to be in control through much of this forecast period, exerting its influence over the ArkLaTex. The initial high will actually begin to lose its organization as the week continues, but the pressure max overhead will get absorbed into a new upper level high forming over the Four Corners region, coalescing into a massive ridge which will hold us firmly in its grip throughout the forecast period. As a result, tomorrow looks to play out very similarly to today, with rainfall chances, if any develop, confined to our easternmost zones of northeast and central Louisiana. Being on the eastern fringe of the high, these areas have the greatest (though still slight) chance of moisture managing to form into afternoon thunderstorms. As with so much of this week, the temperatures remain on autopilot. Lows at daybreak tomorrow morning will range from the middle 70s to near or even reaching 80 degrees at our warmest sites. Highs will again be in the upper 90s to lower 100s with dew points in the low to mid 70s will result in heat index values between 105 and 109 degrees, thus have seen fit to continue our existing Heat Advisory which will be in effect continuously through 8 PM Thursday, with further extensions likely and upgrades possible. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 We swear there are actual human forecasters writing and updating these discussions and not just a "copy and paste" function. Alas, it does start to feel that way after days on end of the same. Afternoon highs will continue to reach the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and a few sites possibly not even dipping below 80 by daybreak. The stubborn humidity may relent slightly later in the week and more so into the weekend, but apparent temperatures are still expected to reach Heat Advisory criteria for several hours each afternoon. The exact behavior of the omnipresent upper level high pressure system has been a point of some fluctuation from one forecast update to the next lately. The latest model consensus suggests that the high may remain centered far enough to the west through Saturday to allow daily slight chances of scattered thunderstorms each afternoon, primarily across our southeast quadrant, affecting our central and eastern Louisiana parishes. By Sunday, the high begins to drift eastward as the vast upper level ridge amplifies over the Front Range and extends over the Great Plains and into the Midwest. In a nutshell, this will hinder even our meager precip chances from Sunday through the first half of next week. Even the tail end of this extended forecast period finds the upper level high meandering very little, still in place over Colorado and New Mexico, with no significant break in this established hot and dry pattern in sight yet. /26/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 741 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 For the 15/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected to prevail this period as a cu field slowly diminishes this evening along with some very isolated convection across our eastern airspace. Some residual cirrus from decaying convection will persist this evening and overnight, but otherwise expect mostly SKC. Cu field will redevelop after 15Z on Thursday with light and variable winds becoming SW between 5-10 kts. /19 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 80 100 80 101 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 79 100 78 101 / 10 20 10 20 DEQ 74 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 79 101 79 102 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 76 99 76 99 / 10 10 0 10 TYR 79 99 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 78 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 76 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...19