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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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424 FXUS64 KSHV 140854 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 354 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Top of the hour readings at 3am are all in the 70s and not much wind except at a handful of sites, most of which are prevailing southwest. Many sites with calm are also near saturation and we have some patchy fog around now that will likely wait on a couple hours of daylight to disperse, so we have an early to mid morning mention. We have seen an increase on moisture content and that will not bode well for the new work week with Heat headlines likely back in the picture. Today we will see lower 100s for most calculations with a handful of zones around 105 and isolated higher. Not quite widespread enough today to warrant a heat advisory today, but tomorrow numbers grow hotter with less clouds in the new week. For today we still have a swath of cloudiness in deepening southwest flow aloft descending from the top down. Our pwat remains elevated with 1.85" on our 00Z flight last evening. So we will go with the models again painting QPF across our Four-State area from deep east TX into NE LA. Generally running under the cloudiness. So we should be fairly similar to yesterday maxs, maybe a tad hotter for our I-30 corridor. This is where our highest HI calculations can be found today where more sunshine is expected. Otherwise, the upper trough of late will fill and slowly ease off to the east, allowing our heights to rise as the upper high over the front range expands over the southern plains. The weakness currently aloft or shear axis if you will, will be shunted to the SE over the next day or so, thinning the convection along the way to more isolated coverage to start the new work week. Our temps will vary today, but more uniform mid and eventually upper 90s will lock in for a while. Lows will be warming a tad too this week. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 So the sea breeze activity of late will keep farther to the south and only allow for slight chance wording across our southern most counties and parishes. Thus the warmer trend to start the week and hotter temps returning for a little while. Mid to late week will see another cool air mass dropping in the upper MS River Valley early on Wednesday. The core of this 1024mb high will edge into the Dakotas and settle into the midWest and northern plains by early Thursday. This will start to pool the moisture and bring back the clouds and decent rain chances for us by late week. So thankfully the heat headlines will be short lived this week. Our next cool front late week will backdoor in more this time around and our heights aloft will drop off again with a 586dam low in the base of a new trough that will hang around for a while as the first air mass is reinforced with another 1025mb core over WI/IL, extending eastward across the New England states by the weekend. So this is looking good for mid to late July for many locales including us as over the weekend, a deepening upper low will replace the northern surface high pressure with widespread convection over much of the country. The WPC starts to drop their EROs back our way by late week and next weekend, another 586dam low will drop in over OK by this time next week. So we may look much the same to wrap up the month with slightly cooler and wetter conditions than normal as the Climate Prediction Center confirms for us on their 8-14 day outlook. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 For the 14/06 TAF period, scattered to broken mid and high level clouds are observed across our airspace early this morning with VFR conditions prevailing. As we approach daybreak, will monitor terminals for vsby restrictions due to patchy fog. Don`t expect this fog to be widespread or dense given the cloud cover in place so decided to forego any mention in the TAFs for now. However, the most likely terminal to see any fog develop is LFK so will amend as needed. Otherwise, look for a cu field to redevelop later today with isolated to widely scattered convection possible during the afternoon. For now, have held off including any convection in the O6Z TAF cycle due to low confidence and will reevaluate with the 12Z issuance. Light and variable winds overnight will trend more S/SW between 5-10 kts later today. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 92 76 97 77 / 30 10 10 0 MLU 93 75 96 76 / 40 10 30 10 DEQ 94 72 96 73 / 10 10 10 0 TXK 95 74 97 76 / 10 0 10 0 ELD 91 72 96 74 / 20 10 20 0 TYR 94 76 96 76 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 92 75 96 74 / 20 10 10 0 LFK 92 74 94 73 / 40 10 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19