Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
414 FXUS66 KSGX 032030 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 130 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Tranquil weather continues into the holiday weekend with highs a few degrees warmer than today. A ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the region, leading to building confidence in a heat wave across the area by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Another weak trough has made its way into the State today, keeping temperatures slightly below normal as clouds melt away across the beaches. A weak troughing pattern is expected to linger across the the region through the weekend as high pressure builds across the northern Mexico. As the high builds and pressure heights increase a lot, subtle warming by a 3-5 degrees will occur by Friday, lasting through the holiday weekend. This will bring temperatures closer to normal for early July. Low clouds will continue to push ashore each night into the morning for coastal and western valley regions. Confidence continues to increase on a building heatwave by the middle of next week as high pressure over Mexico, moves over our area. Exact placement of this system is becoming better aligned, where it indicates the system peaking over much of Southern California. This leads to increased confidence of storm chances to be limited below 10 percent, as a slight uptick in monsoonal moisture works its way into SoCal by Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lead to a bit more humidity with the hot weather, especially for mountains and deserts. 850mb temperatures peak on Wednesday and Thursday as a near ~ 600 dm high moves over the region. This will trigger highs near 10 degrees above normal by the middle of the week with high confidence in temperatures rising over 100 degrees across the high desert and Inland Empire. We will also be keeping an eye on mountainous areas, where NBM shows moderate to high chances of places like Julian and Anza seeing highs reach at least 95 degrees. 80s and 90s can be expected for other mountain areas and valleys closer to the coast. Those with heat sensitivities or without proper cooling methods should continue to monitor the forecast. Ensemble models show a subtle decrease in the high`s intensity by the end of the week, which would lead to continued hot temperatures but not as intense. && .AVIATION... 032000Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds have generally cleared the inland areas with the marine layer hanging just offshore of San Diego County. Brief CIG with BKN low clouds possible in and out of coastal sites over the next few hours, otherwise remaining clear. Low clouds push ashore again by 02z, with bases generally near or slightly lower than this morning, around 1000ft MSL. Inland spread will be about the same as this morning, reaching into the far western and southern IE. Localized VIS reductions down to 1-3SM for coastal mesas and valleys. Clouds to clear to the beaches by 16-17z Fri, with lingering clouds at some beaches into the afternoon. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted VIS through Friday morning. FEW CU near the mountain peaks this afternoon with bases generally above 15k ft MSL. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather conditions are expected through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Building southerly swell (190 degrees) of 3 feet at 15-17 seconds will generate elevated surf of 3-5 ft with sets to 6 ft along southerly facing beaches today through Saturday. In addition, strong rip and longshore currents expected at all beaches Friday and Saturday. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect and contains more information. Swell and surf will begin to lower on Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Zuber