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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
193 FXUS66 KSGX 141532 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 832 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and seasonal weather will continue into early next week. Night and morning coastal low clouds will extend into coastal areas late each night. Higher pressure will bring a warming trend next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... With a shallow marine layer, the low cloud and fog coverage this morning was a little underwhelming, not getting as far inland as it did yesterday. That will simply mean plenty of sunshine to go around today. The large scale marine layer cloud deck off the CA coast has reformed. A similar coverage in time and space is expected tonight into Thursday. A decent coastal eddy seems to develop for Friday through Saturday, which should bring more coastal clouds extending into western valleys early Friday and early Saturday. The weather pattern over the West is unchanging: a weak low pressure trough to the north and a strong high pressure ridge to the east. The ridge builds slightly today through Thursday, then the trough takes a step forward Friday into Saturday. Minor variations in temperatures are expected through the weekend. If we grab a microscope we can detect a tiny warming trend today and Thursday followed by a tiny cooling trend Friday and Saturday. Next week the ridge to our east will strengthen and morph westward into SoCal a little more. That should bring a warming trend next week, possibly peaking around Tuesday or Wednesday with temps several degrees above normal. We`ve been talking a lot about the return of monsoonal moisture, but today`s guidance shows that influence taking a step backward. The moisture begins to return Friday, gradually increasing enough for what used to look like Monday as the first day with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts. But latest guidance now shows no chance Monday and very low chances Tuesday and Wednesday; not even worth mentioning in the forecast with highest pops around 10 percent. The bigger story will be the hotter weather inland Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. && .AVIATION... 141500Z...Coast/Valleys... Patchy low clouds have pushed about 10 miles inland this morning with bases 700-1000ft MSL and tops to 1300ft MSL, along with localized VIS reductions down to 3SM for higher coastal terrain and valleys. Clearing will occur by 16-17z for most coastal sites, but some lingering stratus near the beaches may continue through 20z. Redevelopment of patchy low clouds expected again tonight, bringing CIGs for coastal sites as early as 09z-11z Thursday. Slightly thicker marine layer possible, but similar bases near 600-900ft MSL expected as well as localized VIS reductions to 3-5SM. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted VIS through Thursday morning. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MM AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber