193
FXUS66 KSGX 141532
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
832 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair and seasonal weather will continue into early next week.
Night and morning coastal low clouds will extend into coastal
areas late each night. Higher pressure will bring a warming trend
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

With a shallow marine layer, the low cloud and fog coverage this
morning was a little underwhelming, not getting as far inland as
it did yesterday. That will simply mean plenty of sunshine to go
around today. The large scale marine layer cloud deck off the CA
coast has reformed. A similar coverage in time and space is
expected tonight into Thursday. A decent coastal eddy seems to
develop for Friday through Saturday, which should bring more
coastal clouds extending into western valleys early Friday and
early Saturday. The weather pattern over the West is unchanging: a
weak low pressure trough to the north and a strong high pressure
ridge to the east. The ridge builds slightly today through
Thursday, then the trough takes a step forward Friday into
Saturday. Minor variations in temperatures are expected through
the weekend. If we grab a microscope we can detect a tiny warming
trend today and Thursday followed by a tiny cooling trend Friday
and Saturday. Next week the ridge to our east will strengthen and
morph westward into SoCal a little more. That should bring a
warming trend next week, possibly peaking around Tuesday or
Wednesday with temps several degrees above normal. We`ve been
talking a lot about the return of monsoonal moisture, but today`s
guidance shows that influence taking a step backward. The
moisture begins to return Friday, gradually increasing enough for
what used to look like Monday as the first day with a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts. But latest
guidance now shows no chance Monday and very low chances Tuesday
and Wednesday; not even worth mentioning in the forecast with
highest pops around 10 percent. The bigger story will be the
hotter weather inland Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
141500Z...Coast/Valleys... Patchy low clouds have pushed about 10
miles inland this morning with bases 700-1000ft MSL and tops to
1300ft MSL, along with localized VIS reductions down to 3SM for
higher coastal terrain and valleys. Clearing will occur by 16-17z
for most coastal sites, but some lingering stratus near the beaches
may continue through 20z. Redevelopment of patchy low clouds
expected again tonight, bringing CIGs for coastal sites as early as
09z-11z Thursday. Slightly thicker marine layer possible, but
similar bases near 600-900ft MSL expected as well as localized VIS
reductions to 3-5SM.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted VIS through
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...Zuber