740
FXUS63 KSGF 161741
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening through
  tonight, mainly over far SE KS and far SW MO. Damaging wind,
  large hail, and localized flooding are the main severe
  weather risks.

- Marginal severe weather risk Saturday afternoon and evening.
  Large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding are the
  primary risks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Early this morning:

Lingering convection should gradually move east early this
morning. Observed rainfall amounts up to 6 inches has been noted
across portions of Webster, Wright, and Texas counties, which
will undoubtedly result in flooding into the day today. Use
caution if traveling this morning in these and surrounding
areas.

Today in general:

A front will be stalled across the area, resulting in highs
ranging from the low 90s NE to the upper 90s SW. Heat index
values should top out at 100-105 in the SW, which isn`t hot
enough to require a heat advisory.

Thunderstorm potential this evening and tonight:

With the front over the area, 1,000-2,000 J/kg of instability,
and deep later shear of 40-50 kts, expect storms to initiate
upstream of the area and move along the frontal zone this
evening into tonight. This will favor the southwestern CWA to
see the greatest potential and coverage of severe weather, with
the best potential being late this evening into tonight as the
LLJ strengthens. Storm mode should primarily be multicell
clusters and/or larger complexes as guidance suggests upstream
storms may bring more than one MCS to the area. Large hail up to
1.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds to 60 mph are the
primary threats this evening, turning to a 1" hail and 60 mph
wind threat tonight, along with potential for training
convection (flow parallel to the front) and localized flooding.
Again, the best potential for these hazards is over the
southwestern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Thunderstorm/severe potential Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night:

The front mentioned in the short term should remain stalled over
the area on Saturday. Greater instability (2,000-3,000 J/kg of
CAPE) is expected in the afternoon and evening, but that will be
at least somewhat dependent on the evolution of early day
convection, so watch for potential for changes as that becomes
more clear. Deep layer shear looks to be 40-60 kts and with
profiles that would allow for supercellular potential.
Especially if higher end CAPE and shear values are realized,
along with supercell storm mode, very large hail may be
possible. Low level winds look too weak to advertise any
tornado threat. If storms develop, they would probably linger
into the overnight hours and early Sunday morning. Flow looks
to be parallel to the front, so localized flooding will continue
to be a concern. Overall, the potential for storms to form is
less than 30% at this time, making the threat pretty
conditional.

Additional thunderstorm chances into early next week:

The front slowly moves to the southwest with time. There will
still be potential for storms at times Sunday into Monday (maybe
even Tuesday), but confidence in any details is quite limited at
this time given the mesoscale nature of any convective chances.

Temperature trends:

Saturday: Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows in the 60s.

Sunday through Thursday: Highs in the 80s. Lows in the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

After VFR conditions consisting of light winds and few clouds
through 00Z, the main concern then becomes thunderstorms at all
TAF sites between the 01-13Z timeframe. Models are in good
agreement that a line of training thunderstorms will set up
somewhere across extreme SW MO. Highest confidence is that
multiple storms will impact JLN and BBG, especially during the
05-10Z timeframe (60-80% chance). There`s currently lower
confidence on if this band will reach NE into SGF, but chances
are still moderate during the 06-10Z timeframe (40-60% chance).
Any storm will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 50 kts,
large hail up to half-dollar size, and heavy rainfall.

Storms should clear out of all TAF sites by 13Z with light winds
shifting to WNW`ly by the end of the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Price