647
FXUS63 KSGF 030540
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably mild weather through Thursday will give way to a
  slow warming trend into the weekend.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (15-30%) west of
  Highway 65 for Friday (Independence Day) into Saturday.

- Additional rain chances then exist region wide Saturday night
  into Sunday...with periodic 20-50% chances through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

An unseasonably mild airmass has settled into the Ozarks with
most areas enjoying temperatures in the middle 80s coupled with
dew points in the upper 50s to around 60.

Look for patchy fog overnight, particularly in river bottoms, as
skies clear and winds become light and variable as weak surface
high pressure drifts overhead.

Temperatures and dew points will show minor rises on Thursday as
the center of the high shifts east and weak return southerly
flow sets up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

The southerly fetch will increase into the 4th as the surface
high shifts further east and upper heights climb as an upper
level ridge builds southwest to northeast into the Missouri
Ozarks. High temperatures will warm back to around normal...with
the heat index reaching 90-95. Models vary with the potential
for early morning thunderstorms over southeast Kansas into far
western Missouri in association with a weak low level jet. Model
SBCAPEs range from 500-1500 joules by afternoon but minimal
synoptic support is expected to yield isolated convection at
best.

The mid to long term will then involve a wavy northern stream
jet that will bring period shortwaves across the northern
Plains...and trailing frontal boundaries toward the forecast
areas Sunday into mid week. Models characteristically have
differences in timing...resulting in periodic 30-50% thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions to prevail for the entire TAF period with 3-8 kt
south-southwesterly winds and a 5 kft cu field developing
between 16-01Z.

River valley fog is expected between 07-13Z, which should not
impact the TAF sites (>70% chance). BBG may see some reduced
visibilities from the surounding valley fog/mist, but
confidence is too low to include in TAFs at the moment.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Runnels
AVIATION...Price