477
FXUS63 KSGF 172328
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat index values up to 105 F are expected over far southwest
  Missouri and far southeast Kansas this afternoon and a Heat
  Advisory remains in effect for these areas.

- 15-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night.

- Cooler and dry conditions are expected for the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show the area remaining in northwest
flow aloft with a high over New Mexico and a low over the Great
Lakes. The atmosphere has dried out some here locally as seen on
the 12z KSGF sounding measuring a 1.02in PW value. Water vapor
also showed a large area of drier air over Missouri which has
led to clear skies early this afternoon. A few cumulus clouds
have developed closer to a cold front that stretched from
central Kansas into central Missouri. Temps have warmed into the
upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

This Afternoon through Tonight: The cold front/wind shift will
continue dropping into the area however given the lack of strong
forcing and/or moisture we should remain dry. Areas across far
southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri will remain in a
Heat Advisory until 9pm. Heat index values may struggle to hit
105 however given the continued power outages from last nights
storms decided to keep it going through this evening. Winds will
gradually become northeasterly overnight which will begin to
lower temps and dewpoints further into the 60s.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Latest HREF suggests a mostly sunny
day however we will be watching shortwave energy that drops
southeast out of Nebraska and Iowa late in the afternoon and
evening. This will increase mid/high level cloud cover by the
evening. High temps will range from the lower 90s across the
west to the middle 80s across central Missouri. Northeast winds
should continue to usher in lower dewpoints therefore no Heat
Advisories are planned for far sw Missouri at this time.

After sunset Sunday, a low level frontal zone will sharpen up
from southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma, clipping
southwest Missouri. A low level jet will develop and an area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop. Latest HREF
data is showing MU CAPE less than 500j/kg and confined to
southeast Kansas therefore areas east of there may just see
light rain showers. Rain chances currently remain less than 50
percent however a narrow corridor of higher chances may need to
be added (likely closer to the Joplin area). As far as amounts
go, HREF 25th percentile is around 0.00 and the 75th percentile
is around 0.10in therefore this will likely not amount to much
for our area. Areas east of Springfield will likely remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Cooler and Drier Next Week: Ensemble cluster analysis is in
fairly decent agreement that the upper level high will remain
situated over the New Mexico region for the week. No significant
shortwaves are forecast to drop southeast into the area. Mean
850mb temps look to remain in the 14-18C range Tuesday and
Wednesday which compared to local climatology studies would
suggest median highs in the middle 80s which is what the NBM
suggests with small spreads in the interquartile data.
Overnight lows are likely to drop well into the 50s east of
Springfield Wednesday morning which will provide a Autumn-like
feel. 850mb temps increase a few degrees by the end of the week
with highs warming into the upper 80s however no precipitation
is expected this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

VFR through the period with light northerly winds and mostly
clear skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ088-093-101-
     102.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Soria