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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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477 FXUS63 KSGF 172328 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 628 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat index values up to 105 F are expected over far southwest Missouri and far southeast Kansas this afternoon and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for these areas. - 15-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night. - Cooler and dry conditions are expected for the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show the area remaining in northwest flow aloft with a high over New Mexico and a low over the Great Lakes. The atmosphere has dried out some here locally as seen on the 12z KSGF sounding measuring a 1.02in PW value. Water vapor also showed a large area of drier air over Missouri which has led to clear skies early this afternoon. A few cumulus clouds have developed closer to a cold front that stretched from central Kansas into central Missouri. Temps have warmed into the upper 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This Afternoon through Tonight: The cold front/wind shift will continue dropping into the area however given the lack of strong forcing and/or moisture we should remain dry. Areas across far southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri will remain in a Heat Advisory until 9pm. Heat index values may struggle to hit 105 however given the continued power outages from last nights storms decided to keep it going through this evening. Winds will gradually become northeasterly overnight which will begin to lower temps and dewpoints further into the 60s. Sunday through Sunday Night: Latest HREF suggests a mostly sunny day however we will be watching shortwave energy that drops southeast out of Nebraska and Iowa late in the afternoon and evening. This will increase mid/high level cloud cover by the evening. High temps will range from the lower 90s across the west to the middle 80s across central Missouri. Northeast winds should continue to usher in lower dewpoints therefore no Heat Advisories are planned for far sw Missouri at this time. After sunset Sunday, a low level frontal zone will sharpen up from southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma, clipping southwest Missouri. A low level jet will develop and an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop. Latest HREF data is showing MU CAPE less than 500j/kg and confined to southeast Kansas therefore areas east of there may just see light rain showers. Rain chances currently remain less than 50 percent however a narrow corridor of higher chances may need to be added (likely closer to the Joplin area). As far as amounts go, HREF 25th percentile is around 0.00 and the 75th percentile is around 0.10in therefore this will likely not amount to much for our area. Areas east of Springfield will likely remain dry. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Cooler and Drier Next Week: Ensemble cluster analysis is in fairly decent agreement that the upper level high will remain situated over the New Mexico region for the week. No significant shortwaves are forecast to drop southeast into the area. Mean 850mb temps look to remain in the 14-18C range Tuesday and Wednesday which compared to local climatology studies would suggest median highs in the middle 80s which is what the NBM suggests with small spreads in the interquartile data. Overnight lows are likely to drop well into the 50s east of Springfield Wednesday morning which will provide a Autumn-like feel. 850mb temps increase a few degrees by the end of the week with highs warming into the upper 80s however no precipitation is expected this week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 VFR through the period with light northerly winds and mostly clear skies. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ101. MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ088-093-101- 102. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Soria