473
FXUS63 KSGF 121900
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for excessive rainfall and localized flash
  flooding to the southwest of Springfield, closer to Oklahoma
  this morning and again tonight.

- Much warmer temperatures by mid week with heat indices
  reaching 100-107 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday. Warmest
  temperatures west of Springfield.

- Additional rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday and again
  Thursday, especially northeast of Springfield.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show an upper trough in the northeast U.S. and
an upper ridge axis from Texas into Wyoming.  West-northwesterly
flow continues east of the ridge axis and into the area.  The low
level jet which set up again last night has weakened.  Two areas of
convection developed, the first over northeast Oklahoma into
Arkansas mainly remained south of the area.  The 2nd, was pushing
out of the northeast CWA as of midday.  Visible satellite was
showing some clearing starting to take place behind the area of
convection and we should see temperatures reach the mid to possibly
upper 80s in the far western CWA this afternoon.  Upper 70s to low
80s are expected further east with the longer period of cloud cover.


Tonight into Tuesday: Models have struggled with the placement of
these nightly MCS`s the past couple of nights, but the overall trend
has been shifting slightly northeast with the main track of heaviest
precipitation.  Setup remains roughly the same tonight as the next
in a ridge riding shortwave shifts east across the plains.  Low
level jet once again establishes from southwest to northeast across
OK and KS and another MCS is expected to develop to our west.  The
upper ridge will continue to build slightly and we should see the
track of tonight`s MCS pushing into our western CWA towards
daybreak.  Similar to the previous couple of nights, training
thunderstorms with heavy rain from northwest to southeast may cause
some excessive rainfall and localized flooding to develop despite
the recent dry patch we`ve been in.  PW values on Tuesday morning in
the west should be around 1.9-2.1", so quite a bit of moisture
content in the atmosphere.  The low level jet should diminish during
the morning and the shortwave energy should slide to the east by
early afternoon and precipitation coverage should diminish during
the afternoon.  Highs will be warmest in the southwest where the
precipitation should clear the earliest.  Highs near 90 will be
possible there, while highs in the upper 70s to low 80s will be
possible in central MO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Tuesday night - Wednesday: The upper ridge will begin to build into
the area and a warm front will start to lift northeast into the
area.  The low level jet on Tuesday night will be over the area and
should shift the best precipitation chances over our northeast CWA.
Southwest of the warm front on Wednesday, we should see temperatures
reach the mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s.  This will bring
heat index values in the 100 to 107 degree range over the southwest
1/2 of the CWA.

Thursday - Friday: Ensemble data shows upper level troughing that
shifts from the northern and central plains into the upper MS and
mid MS valley.  This will help to bring a cold front through part of
the area and continue precipitation chances, mainly in the northern
portion of the CWA.  Temperatures Thursday will be in the low to
upper 90s with heat index values from the upper 90s to around 107.
Heat advisories may be needed for both Wednesday and Thursday this
week.  Temperatures on Friday should be slightly cooler from the
upper 80s to low 90s over most locations.

Saturday - Monday: The upper trough will then shift eastward and dig
a deeper trough while the upper ridge amplifies to our west.  This
will bring a northwesterly flow back to the area along with
continued unsettled conditions between the ridge axis and the
trough.  Temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms from the mid
80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the 18z TAFS, sky was beginning to clear out at JLN and
shoulud at SGF and BBG early on in the period as the remnant MCS
cloud cover shifts east out of the area. Next thunderstorm
complex is expected to develop in the plains overnight and shift
into our area towards daybreak after 11-12z and affect the
JLN/SGF areas by 13-14z through the remainder of the TAF period.
Outside of this convection we should generally be in VFR after
the clouds break up at SGF/BBG. Within the convection tomorrow
morning, may see some MVFR or brief IFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg