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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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473 FXUS63 KSGF 121900 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding to the southwest of Springfield, closer to Oklahoma this morning and again tonight. - Much warmer temperatures by mid week with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday. Warmest temperatures west of Springfield. - Additional rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday and again Thursday, especially northeast of Springfield. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper trough in the northeast U.S. and an upper ridge axis from Texas into Wyoming. West-northwesterly flow continues east of the ridge axis and into the area. The low level jet which set up again last night has weakened. Two areas of convection developed, the first over northeast Oklahoma into Arkansas mainly remained south of the area. The 2nd, was pushing out of the northeast CWA as of midday. Visible satellite was showing some clearing starting to take place behind the area of convection and we should see temperatures reach the mid to possibly upper 80s in the far western CWA this afternoon. Upper 70s to low 80s are expected further east with the longer period of cloud cover. Tonight into Tuesday: Models have struggled with the placement of these nightly MCS`s the past couple of nights, but the overall trend has been shifting slightly northeast with the main track of heaviest precipitation. Setup remains roughly the same tonight as the next in a ridge riding shortwave shifts east across the plains. Low level jet once again establishes from southwest to northeast across OK and KS and another MCS is expected to develop to our west. The upper ridge will continue to build slightly and we should see the track of tonight`s MCS pushing into our western CWA towards daybreak. Similar to the previous couple of nights, training thunderstorms with heavy rain from northwest to southeast may cause some excessive rainfall and localized flooding to develop despite the recent dry patch we`ve been in. PW values on Tuesday morning in the west should be around 1.9-2.1", so quite a bit of moisture content in the atmosphere. The low level jet should diminish during the morning and the shortwave energy should slide to the east by early afternoon and precipitation coverage should diminish during the afternoon. Highs will be warmest in the southwest where the precipitation should clear the earliest. Highs near 90 will be possible there, while highs in the upper 70s to low 80s will be possible in central MO. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Tuesday night - Wednesday: The upper ridge will begin to build into the area and a warm front will start to lift northeast into the area. The low level jet on Tuesday night will be over the area and should shift the best precipitation chances over our northeast CWA. Southwest of the warm front on Wednesday, we should see temperatures reach the mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will bring heat index values in the 100 to 107 degree range over the southwest 1/2 of the CWA. Thursday - Friday: Ensemble data shows upper level troughing that shifts from the northern and central plains into the upper MS and mid MS valley. This will help to bring a cold front through part of the area and continue precipitation chances, mainly in the northern portion of the CWA. Temperatures Thursday will be in the low to upper 90s with heat index values from the upper 90s to around 107. Heat advisories may be needed for both Wednesday and Thursday this week. Temperatures on Friday should be slightly cooler from the upper 80s to low 90s over most locations. Saturday - Monday: The upper trough will then shift eastward and dig a deeper trough while the upper ridge amplifies to our west. This will bring a northwesterly flow back to the area along with continued unsettled conditions between the ridge axis and the trough. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal norms from the mid 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 For the 18z TAFS, sky was beginning to clear out at JLN and shoulud at SGF and BBG early on in the period as the remnant MCS cloud cover shifts east out of the area. Next thunderstorm complex is expected to develop in the plains overnight and shift into our area towards daybreak after 11-12z and affect the JLN/SGF areas by 13-14z through the remainder of the TAF period. Outside of this convection we should generally be in VFR after the clouds break up at SGF/BBG. Within the convection tomorrow morning, may see some MVFR or brief IFR. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg