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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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576 FXUS63 KSGF 121710 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning and again late tonight into Tuesday morning (50-90% chances). Rainfall amounts of 0.25-1 inch this morning with additional amounts of 1-2 inches tonight into Tuesday. Low confidence in rainfall amounts and heaviest rainfall locations. - Slight risk for excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding to the southwest of Springfield, closer to Oklahoma this morning and again tonight. - Much warmer temperatures by mid week with heat indices reaching 100-108 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday. Warmest temperatures west of Springfield. - Additional rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday and again Thursday, especially northeast of Springfield. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The area remains in a messy west/northwest flow pattern to the north of a upper level high across Texas. A 45kt low level jet was sampled on the Norman, Oklahoma VAD. This continues to pump a moist and unstable airmass northeast towards the region. However the highest moisture convergence continues to be located southwest of the area where a heavy band of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing from Ponca City to Tulsa, OK. This is intercepting/disrupting heavier rainfall from forming across our local area. There is at least isolated showers and storms developing from central/eastern Kansas into central Missouri as a subtle shortwave moves through and interacts with a boundary. Today: Latest high res guidance continues to trend west with the highest rainfall this morning across northeast Oklahoma. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this morning however both coverage and amounts will be much less than thought 12-24 hours ago. Rainfall amounts now look to be 0.25-1 inch across the area with potentially two local maxima`s, one southwest of Springfield and the other northeast of Springfield. Springfield metro may be stuck in between with less than 0.25in rainfall. Any localized flooding threat appears to remain across Oklahoma. The low level jet should weaken through late morning with activity diminishing. A decent amount of cloud cover will remain with temps remaining below average. Have gone closer to the cooler/NBM25th percentile for highs with upper 70s in the east to lower 80s across the rest of the area. If any one location sees more sunshine then temps could boost a few more degrees than this. Tonight through Tuesday: The mid level high will move ever so slightly northeast with another low level jet nosing into Oklahoma and Kansas. 00z HREF guidance suggests that another round of training showers and thunderstorms will develop on the nose of the low level jet. Given the slightly farther north mid level heights, the area from southern Kansas into southern Missouri should be more favored for this activity to track. High PW (near 2.0in) and MU CAPES around 1500J/KG could lead to high rainfall rates where this activity develops. Latest LPMM shows small pockets of 1-3 inches in an arc from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri late tonight through Tuesday morning. Exact placement still remains in question however and rain chances remain around 50-70%. High temps will be impacted by clouds and again are closer to the 25th percentile with upper 70s across northern areas to lower to middle 80s south of Springfield. If strong heating occurs southwest of Springfield Tuesday afternoon then heat indicies may approach 100 degrees south of Joplin. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Tuesday Night through Wednesday: The mid level high and ridge looks to continue sliding north and east towards the Arklatex. Ensembles suggest a 40-50kt low level jet developing much farther north across Kansas and west central Missouri. If this occurs then a round of showers and thunderstorms would develop and move across the northeast half of the area. As seen the last few days, the heaviest clusters of storms typically produces locally heavy rainfall and this could lead to localized flooding. The placement of this activity will also have a big impact on high temps Wednesday. 850mb temps of 20-23C look to nose into the area during the day therefore a large spread in highs temps may occur from southwest to northeast across the area. Even NBM25th percentile has Springfield reaching 90degrees. Low level moisture will likely remain with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Latest ensembles have a 50-70% chance of heat index values of at least 100 degrees along and west of Highway 65 and will need to monitor for a potential Heat Advisory. Thursday and Friday: Ensembles are showing a shortwave moving through the central plains on Thursday and Friday. This will push a front into the northern portions of the area, increasing rain chances into the 30-50% range. Another Heat Advisory may be needed Wednesday across western areas if precip remains farther north. Saturday and Sunday: The mid level high then begins to retrograde to the west, placing our area back in northwest flow aloft. This could create another active/unsettled pattern close to the area however given the uncertainty, rain chances remain less than 30 percent. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 For the 18z TAFS, sky was beginning to clear out at JLN and shoulud at SGF and BBG early on in the period as the remnant MCS cloud cover shifts east out of the area. Next thunderstorm complex is expected to develop in the plains overnight and shift into our area towards daybreak after 11-12z and affect the JLN/SGF areas by 13-14z through the remainder of the TAF period. Outside of this convection we should generally be in VFR after the clouds break up at SGF/BBG. Within the convection tomorrow morning, may see some MVFR or brief IFR. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Lindenberg