576
FXUS63 KSGF 121710
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning and again
  late tonight into Tuesday morning (50-90% chances). Rainfall
  amounts of 0.25-1 inch this morning with additional amounts of
  1-2 inches tonight into Tuesday. Low confidence in rainfall
  amounts and heaviest rainfall locations.

- Slight risk for excessive rainfall and localized flash
  flooding to the southwest of Springfield, closer to Oklahoma
  this morning and again tonight.

- Much warmer temperatures by mid week with heat indices
  reaching 100-108 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday. Warmest
  temperatures west of Springfield.

- Additional rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday and again
  Thursday, especially northeast of Springfield.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The area remains in a
messy west/northwest flow pattern to the north of a upper level
high across Texas. A 45kt low level jet was sampled on the
Norman, Oklahoma VAD. This continues to pump a moist and
unstable airmass northeast towards the region. However the
highest moisture convergence continues to be located southwest
of the area where a heavy band of showers and thunderstorms is
ongoing from Ponca City to Tulsa, OK. This is
intercepting/disrupting heavier rainfall from forming across
our local area. There is at least isolated showers and storms
developing from central/eastern Kansas into central Missouri as
a subtle shortwave moves through and interacts with a boundary.

Today: Latest high res guidance continues to trend west with the
highest rainfall this morning across northeast Oklahoma. There
will be scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area this
morning however both coverage and amounts will be much less than
thought 12-24 hours ago. Rainfall amounts now look to be
0.25-1 inch across the area with potentially two local
maxima`s, one southwest of Springfield and the other northeast
of Springfield. Springfield metro may be stuck in between with
less than 0.25in rainfall. Any localized flooding threat appears
to remain across Oklahoma.

The low level jet should weaken through late morning with
activity diminishing. A decent amount of cloud cover will remain
with temps remaining below average. Have gone closer to the
cooler/NBM25th percentile for highs with upper 70s in the east
to lower 80s across the rest of the area. If any one location
sees more sunshine then temps could boost a few more degrees
than this.

Tonight through Tuesday: The mid level high will move ever so
slightly northeast with another low level jet nosing into
Oklahoma and Kansas. 00z HREF guidance suggests that another
round of training showers and thunderstorms will develop on the
nose of the low level jet. Given the slightly farther north mid
level heights, the area from southern Kansas into southern
Missouri should be more favored for this activity to track. High
PW (near 2.0in) and MU CAPES around 1500J/KG could lead to high
rainfall rates where this activity develops. Latest LPMM shows
small pockets of 1-3 inches in an arc from southern Kansas into
southwest Missouri late tonight through Tuesday morning. Exact
placement still remains in question however and rain chances
remain around 50-70%. High temps will be impacted by clouds and
again are closer to the 25th percentile with upper 70s across
northern areas to lower to middle 80s south of Springfield. If
strong heating occurs southwest of Springfield Tuesday afternoon
then heat indicies may approach 100 degrees south of Joplin.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: The mid level high and ridge
looks to continue sliding north and east towards the Arklatex.
Ensembles suggest a 40-50kt low level jet developing much
farther north across Kansas and west central Missouri. If this
occurs then a round of showers and thunderstorms would develop
and move across the northeast half of the area. As seen the last
few days, the heaviest clusters of storms typically produces
locally heavy rainfall and this could lead to localized
flooding. The placement of this activity will also have a big
impact on high temps Wednesday. 850mb temps of 20-23C look to
nose into the area during the day therefore a large spread in
highs temps may occur from southwest to northeast across the
area. Even NBM25th percentile has Springfield reaching
90degrees. Low level moisture will likely remain with dewpoints
in the lower 70s. Latest ensembles have a 50-70% chance of heat
index values of at least 100 degrees along and west of Highway
65 and will need to monitor for a potential Heat Advisory.

Thursday and Friday: Ensembles are showing a shortwave moving
through the central plains on Thursday and Friday. This will
push a front into the northern portions of the area, increasing
rain chances into the 30-50% range. Another Heat Advisory may
be needed Wednesday across western areas if precip remains
farther north.

Saturday and Sunday: The mid level high then begins to
retrograde to the west, placing our area back in northwest flow
aloft. This could create another active/unsettled pattern close
to the area however given the uncertainty, rain chances remain
less than 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

For the 18z TAFS, sky was beginning to clear out at JLN and
shoulud at SGF and BBG early on in the period as the remnant MCS
cloud cover shifts east out of the area. Next thunderstorm
complex is expected to develop in the plains overnight and shift
into our area towards daybreak after 11-12z and affect the
JLN/SGF areas by 13-14z through the remainder of the TAF period.
Outside of this convection we should generally be in VFR after
the clouds break up at SGF/BBG. Within the convection tomorrow
morning, may see some MVFR or brief IFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg