Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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253 FXUS63 KSGF 091754 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1254 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Rain band to end from west to east this afternoon. -Flood Watch remains in effect though will likely be canceled before its scheduled 7pm expiration. Until then...pockets of heavier rain may lead to flooding. -Temperatures today will range greatly from the 60s over the eastern Ozarks to 70s along Highway 65 and 80s over the I-40 corridor into southeast KS - Temperatures to increase late in the week with highs in the 80s-90s by the weekend. Heat index values approach 100 this weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1037 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 The remnants of Beryl continue to lead to bands of heavier rain out ahead of the circulation that was located a bit north of Little Rock at 9 AM...tracking toward the MO Bootheel by 2 PM and then exiting into the Ohio Valley. Well defined back edge of the precipitation shield has crossed Highway 65...and is expected to reach Highway 63 by late afternoon as the circulation exits the region. Combination of a stalled front to the northwest and an inverted trough that has kept surface dewpoints around 70 may lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Kansas into western MO this afternoon...with 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE possibly leading to small hail and gusty winds. Temperatures this afternoon will vary greatly with rain keeping temperatures in the 60s to the east...then cloud cover playing a role in the east. Expect southeast KS to reach the middle 80s...with the Highway 65 corridor witnessing mid to late afternoon warming into the 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Post tropical cyclone Beryl was currently located across southwest Arkansas this morning and was moving northeast. An upper level ridge remains in place out west and a shortwave trough was located northwest of Beryl across Kansas. A diffuse stationary boundary was located across southeast Kansas into west central Missouri. 00z KSGF sounding measured a very moist airmass with PW values around 1.75in. Even higher values were measured further to the southwest. A large shield of light to moderate rain was in the process of lifting north through southern and south central Missouri however low instability has kept lighting to a minimum as well as keeping hourly rainfall rates less than 0.20in per hour. Today: Latest guidance continues to suggest that as the remnants of Beryl move northeast towards southeast Missouri, the rain shield will continue to lift north and continue for most of the morning, mainly for areas along and east of the Highway 65 corridor. Increasing PW values and instability should allow for a general uptick in rainfall intensity this morning for areas across south central Missouri (localized rates of 0.5- 1 inch per hour). Given the current track of the system, the threat for a severe storm/brief tornado appears to stay just east of the area. By this afternoon, the system will be lifting through southeast Missouri and into southwest Illinois and a gradual end of the rain will occur from west to east. Latest 00Z HREF data supports an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall today for locations generally along and east of a Gainesville to Rolla line. There will likely be a very sharp cutoff to the west of this line with much lower amounts expected. Have kept the area of the Flood Watch the same however we have moved up the end time to 7pm and the watch could be cancelled early for some counties this afternoon depending on radar trends. A few peaks of sunshine may occur west of Highway 65 this afternoon. However for many areas it will be a very cool day by July standards with clouds, rain and increasing north winds. Highs east of Highway 65 will likely remain in the upper 60s to around 70 with areas west of Highway 65 in the upper 70s to near 80 depending on cloud cover. Tonight: Clearing skies, wet ground and decreasing winds could set up some fog potential. Latest high res guidance already is showing increasing probs (30-50%) of visibilities of a mile or less overnight and will need to monitor this in future updates. It will be a cool night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Wednesday: For the most part we are expecting a below average temperature day with highs in the lower to middle 80s across most of the area. However, we will need to watch shortwave energy that drops down from Iowa into Missouri during the day. There are indications that this could cause an isolated shower or thunderstorm for locations north of Highway 54 during the afternoon or evening before the loss of daytime heating ends the potential. Confidence is low with this scenario and precip chances remain less than 20 percent at this time. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Midweek into the weekend: Ensembles continue to support northwest flow Thursday and Friday with weak energy dropping south during peak heating. Therefore, we could see additional low chances (less than 20 percent) of an isolated storm both afternoons/evenings, mainly north of I-44. Most locations look to remain dry with highs a little warmer, in the upper 80s to around 90. The upper level high out west is still forecast to strengthen and slowly spread east towards the central US. Forecasted mean 850mb temps in the 20-23C range for this time of year typically support highs at least in the lower 90s and the latest NBM data is showing a strong signal for these temps for the weekend into early next week. The latest Hazards Outlook from WPC does indicate the potential for hazardous heat beginning on Sunday and lasting at least into Monday with heat indicies of at least 100 degrees. Ensembles generally keep the area dry during this time as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 As the remnants of Beryl and associated rainshield exits east...a band of IFR stratus associated with an eastward moving inverted trough will shift east. Ceilings within the rainshield will vary from 3000-12000 ft. Fog to form after midnight as skies clear and radiational cooling sets up. Have noted 5-6SM in area TAFs though there may be some MVFR visibilities in sheltered areas. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Record Precipitation: July 9: KUNO: 1.27/2015 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ057-058-069>071- 081>083-091-092-096>098-105-106. Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late tonight for MOZ095-102>104. && $$ UPDATE...Runnels SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Runnels CLIMATE...Burchfield