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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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285 FXUS63 KSGF 131103 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 603 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Round of showers and thunderstorms this morning (40-80% chance) with lightning and brief heavy rainfall. - A heavier round of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning could cause flash flooding. A narrow corridor of 2-4 inches of rain with localized amounts up to 7 inches could occur however location of this corridor remains uncertain. Highest chances of rainfall (70-90%) are currently northeast of Springfield. - Much warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with heat indices reaching 100-108 degrees west of Springfield. - Additional rain chances Thursday through Saturday (20-40%) with temperatures closer to average. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows the center of a mid level high over northeast Texas with our area remaining in a complex west/northwest flow pattern. A 35kt low level jet across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles along with a reservoir of MU CAPES around 3000j/kg was currently feeding a MCS across southwest Kansas. A stationary front extended from the MCS, due east through southeast Kansas and southern Missouri with northeast winds and patchy fog across the Lake of the Ozarks region, north of the front. It was rather humid and mild south of the front with temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints around 70. Today: Given the current MCS vectors pointing east to east southeast and a instability/moisture gradient over the area, the MCS over Kansas is likely to continue east towards the area this morning. Current timing would have it moving into southeast Kansas and western Missouri around 6-8am. This activity would then continue east through the morning and turning more southeast with time. The area is removed from the higher wind shear therefore not expecting severe storms however a few may produce gusty winds up to 50mph along with frequent lightning. The MCS will be fairly progressive however given PW values increasing would expect heavy rainfall rates with the latest guidance showing 0.25 to 1 inch with a few areas locally receiving 2 inches. This MCS will likely move out of the area by the afternoon however cloud cover will keep highs in the lower to middle 80s for most areas. Areas southwest of Springfield may be slightly warmer if sunshine returns quicker. Tonight into Wednesday Morning: The morning MCS will likely keep the stationary front in place through the evening however after midnight a 40kt low level jet will develop again but farther north into central Kansas, nosing into western/northwest Missouri. Therefore the front will begin to slowly lift northeast as a warm front. Strong lift from the low level jet and the right entrance region of the upper jet will allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Latest high res guidance shows a rather ominous scenario of strong instability and moisture interacting with a front with corfidi vectors pointing almost due south/perpendicular to the low level jet. This could create a north to south zone of training showers and thunderstorms. Forecast PW values from the RAP are near climatological max (2.2-2.4in) therefore ingredients are in place for a zone of very heavy rainfall rates. Models have struggled the last few days with the placement of heavier rainfall areas. This is not uncommon in active west/northwest flow patterns as mesoscale features play a pivotal role in the overall evolution. The 00z HREF guidance suggests that the corridor of overnight training storms resides from near Kansas City, to Lake of the Ozarks, to Rolla/Salem (Generally northeast of Springfield). That being said, this could shift, especially if this mornings activity lingers longer into the day and complicates the environment. Wherever that corridor develops is where a narrow band of 2-4 inches of rain will likely occur. HREF LPMM is showing 5-7 inches in small localized areas with a 40-50% chance of rainfall over 4 inches shown in that corridor. While antecedent conditions are dry, rainfall of that magnitude will cause flash flooding given our terrain. It should also be noted that areas southwest of the zone of rainfall may not see much rain at all. We will need to get a handle on that zone of rainfall today and will continue to investigate an area for a Flood Watch. The timeframe of the heaviest rainfall looks to be between 2am and 10am Wednesday with rainfall weakening after that as the low level jet subsidies. Wednesday Afternoon: The zone of heavy rainfall will also play a role in the afternoon excessive heat potential. 850mb temps of 20-24C will nose into southwest Missouri during the day and areas unaffected by the rain will experience hot temperatures in the middle 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. This will likely create a corridor of heat index values of 100-108 degrees. Latest HREF data suggests a 50-80% chance of heat indicies reaching 105 or higher across southeast Kansas and the I-49 corridor. Areas further east, including Springfield will be right on the edge of this heat. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for western areas on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Thursday through Friday: Ensembles suggest that the ridge will begin to be suppressed south and west as stronger shortwave energy moves through the northern plains. This will allow for a cold front to drop south into the area on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms developing perhaps by afternoon or evening. Wind fields will be stronger therefore will need to monitor for the potential for some severe storms. Excessive heat may also occur ahead of the front on Thursday with heat indices of 100-105 along and south of I-44 however confidence is low given the frontal timing. Rain chances generally remain less than 30 percent on Friday with cooler temperatures. Saturday through Monday: Ensembles are in decent agreement that the mid level ridge will remain southwest of the area with our area in northwest flow. This pattern typically resembles cooler temperatures with NBM data suggesting highs in the upper 80s. Precip chances are always a challenge in this pattern with current chances less than 30 percent. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through for most of the TAF period however showers and thunderstorms will move into the sites this morning, lasting through 18z. Have included tempo groups for now however amendments may be needed. Winds will remain light out of the south however a brief wind shift to the northwest may occur with thunderstorms later this morning before a return to the southeast this afternoon. Thunderstorms may redevelop near SGF overnight however confidence is too low to include at this time. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield