


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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617 FXUS63 KSGF 020800 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some mild heat and rain relief continues today and Thursday before slightly above normal temperatures and humidity return for the Independence Day Weekend and onwards. - Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (15-30%) west of Highway 65 for Friday (Independence Day) into Saturday. - Greatest chance for precipitation comes Sunday through Wednesday (25-50%) due to a signal for a weak and slow front/trough passage. Details are still uncertain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Current water vapor imagery depicts dry air aloft within a shortwave trough over the Midwest, and behind a surface cold front extending along the Appalachian Mountains and into the ArkLaTex region. Our 00Z balloon data shows this deep layer of dry air above 750 mb or so. The center of a surface high pressure system behind the front is settling right over the Ozarks this morning, bringing very light to nonexistent winds. Calm air, clear skies above the high pressure, and cooler drier air is allowing temperatures to cool into the lower to middle 60s. Lower elevation areas such as river valleys and the eastern Ozarks may see temperatures below 60 F, which may produce some light and patchy valley fog. Some low stratus and/or fog is already starting to be observed on night fog satellite imagery. Mild heat and rain relief continues today and Thursday: Any morning mist/fog will evaporate off a few hours after sunset. Temperatures are then expected to warm into the mid-80s beneath mostly clear skies. The drier air in place should make for a rather pleasant day for summer`s standards. Clear skies and weak winds again tonight will cool lows into the lower to middle 60s again, with the renewed chance for light patchy valley fog. Upper-level ridging is then progged to build into the region Thursday, renewing southerly flow and subsequent warm air and moisture advection. Highs should warm into the upper 80s as a result, though weaker southerly winds behind the departing surface high will likely keep moisture lagging a bit behind. Therefore, Heat Index values are expected to stay somewhat mild in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows Thursday night will also warm a bit into the middle to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Slightly above normal temps and humidity for Independence Day: With the pronounced ridging settling into place Friday and Saturday, temperatures will continue to hold at slightly above normal. Normal temperatures for this time of year are between 87-89 F while forecasted high temperatures are in the 88-92 range. NBM forecast trends have thus backed off slightly on heat for Independence Day. However, with above normal moisture also expected to filter into the region, maximum Heat Index values could still range between 90 to near 100 during the peak heat of the day. NBM spreads are then fairly consistent through next Wednesday, keeping highs near to slightly above normal with Heat Index values continuing to be between 90 to 100. While this heat is just barely above normal for this time of year, increased outdoor activity around the Independence Day Weekend will make people slightly more vulnerable to heat- related impacts. So, caution should be observed when planning to spend extended time outdoors this weekend and into next week. 15-30% shower and thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday: As the ridge translates eastward, shortwave and longwave troughing will slowly enter the Plains, generating a low-level height gradient coincident with the Plains low-level jet. Associated with the increased lift across the Plains, showers and thunderstorms are expected. These chances may extend into our CWA Friday and Saturday, but will mainly depend on how far east the height gradient, LLJ, and associated lift gets. For now, 10-20% chances are evident Friday and Friday night west of Highway 65, with slightly higher 15-30% chances Saturday as the troughing slowly eeks closer to our area. Greater rain chances (25-50%) Sunday through Wednesday: Cluster analysis of global ensembles show agreement with the ridge being squashed equatorward as the troughing runs overtop to our north. The result becomes zonal flow with an enhanced mid-level height gradient just to our north. Since zonal flow inherently tends to become more unstable and break down, little wiggles and shortwaves are likely to progress through the zonal flow, bringing better rain chances to our area. Ensembles are too "smooth" to capture the exact intensity and timing of these waves, but deterministic models suggest a few moving through Sunday through Wednesday. This brings daily 25-50% chances for rain Sunday through Wednesday, with the greatest chances (40-50%) appearing Monday. The daily chances are likely a result of ensemble member differences in the progression of the shortwaves through the weak zonal flow. Therefore, some days may become more favored for storm chances and other days may become less favored (even to the point of being a dry forecast), especially if a frontal boundary comes into play. This is reflected in the QPF of each ensemble cluster. For example, 58% of members produce rain for Monday, while 42% of members keep our area dry. Therefore, trends and model agreement will continue to be monitored for any favored solution. ENS ensemble AI forecasts depict a 5% probability of severe weather Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. However, this could be largely a CAPE-driven signal as the LREF gives a 70-90% chance of wind shear <20 kts, and only a 10-30% chance of shear >15 kts. Once again, though, trends will continue to be monitored for any potential favoring of higher shear and subsequent severe chances during the Sunday through Wednesday timeframe. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Medium confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the entire TAF period. Given high pressure, weak winds, and cooling temperatures, crossover temp guidance may suggest a low-end chance for mist/fog to develop at the TAF sites (<30% chance). For now, expecting the densest mist/fog to stay confined to river valleys. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable, settling out of the southwest between 16-01Z in which a SCT 4-6 kft cu field will also develop. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Price