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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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325 FXUS63 KSGF 140755 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 255 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning northeast of Springfield (70-90% chance) where a Flood Watch is in effect until 3pm. Total rainfall amounts this morning of 2-4 inches with localized amounts near 6 inches in a narrow corridor east of Springfield. - Much warmer temperatures Today and Thursday with heat indices reaching 100-108 degrees west of Springfield where a Heat Advisory is in effect from 12pm-9pm today. - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind are the main severe weather risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Synoptic Pattern and Current Conditions: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a mid level high across the Arklatex region. A subtle vort max was currently dropping southeast through the area on the northeast periphery of the ridge. The low level airmass remained very moist with the 00Z KSGF sounding measuring a PW value of 2.06in which is above the 90th percentile and near the daily max. Deep moisture convergence was occuring in a corridor from Kansas City to Springfield to West Plains where scattered showers and thunderstorms were developing. This was also just north of a reservoir of 2000j/kg of elevated instability and also north of a stationary front which was analyzed just southwest of the area. The mean wind was only around 20kts and was parallel to the instability gradient therefore storms can easily move over the same areas in a highly moist environment which could increase the flooding threat. Today: A corridor of showers and thunderstorms will likely continue to develop through sunrise just to the east of Springfield. 00z HREF guidance does have some spread with respect to the location of the heaviest rainfall however areas along and east of a Osceola to Marshfield to West Plains line seem to be in the favored location and will be extending the Flood Watch west a few counties to account for this. Given the instability and tropical like moisture in place, thunderstorms will be able to produce rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour in localized areas. This area of showers and storms will likely continue through mid morning as both the low level jet veers into the area and at the same time additional development north of the area tries to slide south. 00z HREF guidance continues its theme of showing a narrow corridor of rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with a few localized areas reaching 6 inches east of Springfield. There will be sharp gradients on either side of this rainfall axis where locations will receive less than one inch of rainfall. From late morning into the afternoon the area will see precip move east of the area with clearing skies from southwest to northeast as the warm front lifts into the area. 850mb temps look to reach the 20-23C range west of Highway 65 therefore a large temperature spread is expected from west to east. Dewpoints will increase into the lower 70s and temperatures will increase into the 90s west of Highway 65. This will allow for heat indicies near 105. The Springfield metro will be very close to the edge of the cloud shield however latest guidance does show enough afternoon sunshine potential to keep the Heat Advisory going for its current areas. Not expecting any eastward expansion at this time as areas east of Springfield could remain in the 80s. Tonight: Shortwave energy will move east through the northern plains and will begin to suppress the mid level high to the south and west. An area of showers and thunderstorms looks to develop overnight from central Kansas into northwest Missouri. A few of these storms could edge into areas along and north of a Fort Scott, Kansas to Osceola to Versailles line after 3am. Confidence is not high however if they make it into the area a few storms could produce small hail and gusty winds to 50mph. Higher storm chances will remain north of the area. Thursday: As the low level jet veers in the morning, a few isolated showers and storms could develop across the area. HREF guidance does suggest however that sufficient sunshine will develop from late morning into the afternoon. 850mb temps may actually warm a degree or two from today therefore highs in the lower 90s seem likely along and south of I-44. A few middle 90s may occur along the Missouri/Arkansas border. These temps combined with dews in the 70s will create heat index values of 100-108 and a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for portions of the area. Shortwave energy will amplify by afternoon and evening with stronger wind fields aloft moving in ahead of a cold front. Convergence along the front is not impressive but should be enough to develop showers and thunderstorms during the evening hours across the area. Mean MU CAPE values from the HREF are in the 2000-3000j/kg range with bulk wind shear around 30-35kts. This would be supportive of a few supercells and multicell clusters. Forecast soundings from the RAP shows this environment with steep mid level lapse rates and thetaE diffs around 30C. Hodographs are largely straight due to the westerly flow aloft therefore splitting storms may occur. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the primary concerns at this time. Precip chances are currently in the 50-60% range through the evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The Weekend into next week: Ensembles suggest that northwest flow aloft will occur for the first part of the weekend. A few disturbances could move down and provide rain chances either Friday night or Saturday Night. Confidence is low and rain chances are around 30 percent. Temperatures will likely remain closer to average (upper 80s to lower 90s). Ensembles then suggest that the flow may become more northerly as the high positions itself over the southwest US. This could lead to slightly cooler temperatures and rain chances remaining just west of the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1217 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of SGF through at least 09z then moving east. JLN and BBG will likely remain dry. BBG will continue to experience LIFR ceilings through this morning before lifting by mid morning. Winds will gradually turn from the east southeast to the south during the day with increased gusts at JLN. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066>068-077>080-088>091-093>095-101>104. Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ056>058-069>071- 081>083-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield