617
FXUS63 KSGF 020800
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
300 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some mild heat and rain relief continues today and Thursday
  before slightly above normal temperatures and humidity return
  for the Independence Day Weekend and onwards.

- Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (15-30%) west of
  Highway 65 for Friday (Independence Day) into Saturday.

- Greatest chance for precipitation comes Sunday through
  Wednesday (25-50%) due to a signal for a weak and slow
  front/trough passage. Details are still uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Current water vapor imagery depicts dry air aloft within a
shortwave trough over the Midwest, and behind a surface cold
front extending along the Appalachian Mountains and into the
ArkLaTex region. Our 00Z balloon data shows this deep layer of
dry air above 750 mb or so. The center of a surface high
pressure system behind the front is settling right over the
Ozarks this morning, bringing very light to nonexistent winds.
Calm air, clear skies above the high pressure, and cooler drier
air is allowing temperatures to cool into the lower to middle
60s. Lower elevation areas such as river valleys and the
eastern Ozarks may see temperatures below 60 F, which may
produce some light and patchy valley fog. Some low stratus
and/or fog is already starting to be observed on night fog
satellite imagery.


Mild heat and rain relief continues today and Thursday:

Any morning mist/fog will evaporate off a few hours after
sunset. Temperatures are then expected to warm into the mid-80s
beneath mostly clear skies. The drier air in place should make
for a rather pleasant day for summer`s standards.

Clear skies and weak winds again tonight will cool lows into the
lower to middle 60s again, with the renewed chance for light
patchy valley fog.

Upper-level ridging is then progged to build into the region
Thursday, renewing southerly flow and subsequent warm air and
moisture advection. Highs should warm into the upper 80s as a
result, though weaker southerly winds behind the departing
surface high will likely keep moisture lagging a bit
behind. Therefore, Heat Index values are expected to stay
somewhat mild in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows Thursday night
will also warm a bit into the middle to upper 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Slightly above normal temps and humidity for Independence Day:

With the pronounced ridging settling into place Friday and
Saturday, temperatures will continue to hold at slightly above
normal. Normal temperatures for this time of year are between
87-89 F while forecasted high temperatures are in the 88-92
range. NBM forecast trends have thus backed off slightly on
heat for Independence Day. However, with above normal moisture
also expected to filter into the region, maximum Heat Index
values could still range between 90 to near 100 during the peak
heat of the day. NBM spreads are then fairly consistent through
next Wednesday, keeping highs near to slightly above normal
with Heat Index values continuing to be between 90 to 100.

While this heat is just barely above normal for this time of
year, increased outdoor activity around the Independence Day
Weekend will make people slightly more vulnerable to heat-
related impacts. So, caution should be observed when planning
to spend extended time outdoors this weekend and into next week.


15-30% shower and thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday:

As the ridge translates eastward, shortwave and longwave
troughing will slowly enter the Plains, generating a low-level
height gradient coincident with the Plains low-level jet.
Associated with the increased lift across the Plains, showers
and thunderstorms are expected. These chances may extend into
our CWA Friday and Saturday, but will mainly depend on how far
east the height gradient, LLJ, and associated lift gets. For
now, 10-20% chances are evident Friday and Friday night west of
Highway 65, with slightly higher 15-30% chances Saturday as the
troughing slowly eeks closer to our area.


Greater rain chances (25-50%) Sunday through Wednesday:

Cluster analysis of global ensembles show agreement with the
ridge being squashed equatorward as the troughing runs overtop
to our north. The result becomes zonal flow with an enhanced
mid-level height gradient just to our north. Since zonal flow
inherently tends to become more unstable and break down, little
wiggles and shortwaves are likely to progress through the zonal
flow, bringing better rain chances to our area. Ensembles are
too "smooth" to capture the exact intensity and timing of these
waves, but deterministic models suggest a few moving through
Sunday through Wednesday. This brings daily 25-50% chances for
rain Sunday through Wednesday, with the greatest chances
(40-50%) appearing Monday. The daily chances are likely a result
of ensemble member differences in the progression of the
shortwaves through the weak zonal flow. Therefore, some days may
become more favored for storm chances and other days may become
less favored (even to the point of being a dry forecast),
especially if a frontal boundary comes into play. This is
reflected in the QPF of each ensemble cluster. For example, 58%
of members produce rain for Monday, while 42% of members keep
our area dry. Therefore, trends and model agreement will
continue to be monitored for any favored solution.

ENS ensemble AI forecasts depict a 5% probability of severe
weather Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. However, this could be
largely a CAPE-driven signal as the LREF gives a 70-90% chance
of wind shear <20 kts, and only a 10-30% chance of shear >15
kts. Once again, though, trends will continue to be monitored
for any potential favoring of higher shear and subsequent severe
chances during the Sunday through Wednesday timeframe.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Medium confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the entire
TAF period. Given high pressure, weak winds, and cooling
temperatures, crossover temp guidance may suggest a low-end
chance for mist/fog to develop at the TAF sites (<30% chance).
For now, expecting the densest mist/fog to stay confined to
river valleys.

Otherwise, winds will be light and variable, settling out of the
southwest between 16-01Z in which a SCT 4-6 kft cu field will
also develop.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Price