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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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608 FXUS63 KSGF 131902 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 202 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another heavier round of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning could cause flash flooding. A narrow corridor of 2-4 inches of rain with potential localized amounts up to 7 inches could occur however location of this corridor remains uncertain. Highest chances of rainfall (70-90%) are currently northeast of Springfield. - Much warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with heat indices reaching 100-108 degrees west of Springfield. A heat advisory will be issued for the western half of the CWA for Wednesday. - Potential for strong to severe storms on Thursday. Large hail and damaging wind would be the main severe weather risks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper level ridge axis from east Texas into the Dakotas with a trough from WA/OR into NV. Thunderstorm complex was currently pushing through the CWA and should continue to push all the way through this afternoon. Cloud cover and extensive precipitation shield extending behind the main line segment was keeping temperatures in check and have lowered expectations for highs this afternoon into the 70s in the north to the low/mid 80s in the southwest where some partial clearing may take place. Tonight - Wednesday: Upper level ridge will begin to build into the area, however another low level jet is expected to develop late this evening with additional shortwave energy riding the top of the ridge. Additional convection is expected to develop tonight into Wednesday morning, with the main axis expected to be a bit further north, and the highest QPF over central MO into our eastern CWA. A band of convection with heavy rain is expected to develop in this area. Some HREF members are projecting some fairly substantial rainfall totals in the eastern Ozarks (4-7 inches) with means in the 1-3 inch range. Likely hold off on any flood watch, but may need to do a short fused one later as we see where this sets up tonight. A warm front will also start pushing through the area on Wednesday. Hot and humid conditions are expected southwest of the front with heat index values in the 105-109 degrees over southwestern parts of the CWA. A heat advisory will be issued for these areas for Wednesday afternoon into the early evening(noon to 9 pm). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Wednesday night - Thursday: Upper ridge axis will move east of the area as an upper wave pushes across the plains and into the Mississippi valley region. This will help to bring a front into the area and there may be enough instability and shear for some strong to severe storms on Thursday. Heat index values will again likely climb into the 100 to 107 degree range during the afternoon ahead of the front and anoather advisory may be needed for Thursday. Friday into early next week: The upper level wave will push east and carve out a deeper trough as the ridge retrogrades westward and amplifies over the southern and central plains. We`ll be on the eastern periphery of the ridge axis and west of the trough which will give us northwest flow and the potential for additional convection through this time period along with temperatures which are more seasonal for this time of year. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 For the 18z TAFS, thunderstorm complex continues to march across the CWA with the main linear band east of the terminals with trailing showers still at the 3 TAF sites. Ceilings/visibility improve fairly quickly behind the main line of storms and should have an hour or two of lighter showers with mainly VFR conditions at the onset of the TAFS. Additional convection is expected to redevelop tonight with the main axis setting up generally northeast of the terminals, although SGF may be on the southwestern edge of the band and will include a prob30 group with MVFR conditions and thunderstorms for them late tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ073-097- 101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ066>068- 077>080-088>091-093>095-101>104. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg