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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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477 FXUS63 KSGF 142331 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 631 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much warmer temperatures today and Thursday with heat indices reaching 100-108 degrees west of Springfield where a Heat Advisory is in effect from 12pm-9pm today. - A remnant thunderstorm complex will bring a 20-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms along and north of I-44. Main hazards will be heavy rain and wind gusts up to 50 mph. - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind and large hail are the main severe weather risks (15% chance), with tornadoes being a lower risk (1-2% chance). - 20-40% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday night, preceding calmer weather Sunday onwards. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Current radar imagery depicts a small thunderstorm complex riding the NE periphery of a mid-level ridge. It is continuing to chug southward through the eastern Ozarks. As of 145 PM, an outflow boundary was noted escaping the main line of storms, hinting that gradual weakening should continue through the afternoon. As such, the Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at 3 PM, yet be aware that flooding in the eastern Ozarks may still be ongoing, and slightly elevate if a remnant storm moves over strained/waterlogged areas from last night/this morning. Heat Advisory Today/Thursday with 100-108 F Heat Index Values: Cloud cover this morning has inhibited high Heat Index values along Hwy 65. West of there, however, Heat Index values are in the 100-105 F range and will likely climb to max of 150-110 F through this afternoon (50-70% chance west of I-49). It may be difficult for the Springfield area to reach above 105 F as outflow-induced cloud cover is entering the area this afternoon. Additionally, winds have been a bit stronger than predicted across the Springfield area as SE`ly winds funnel through the White River Basin. These will keep "feels like" temperatures slightly below the Heat Index values. Nevertheless, exercise caution when working outdoors today and Thursday. With continued strong southerly flow Thursday, warm air and moisture advection will bring middle to upper 90s highs and middle 70s dewpoints across the region, especially in extreme SW MO. This will support widespread Heat Index values between 100-108 F. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 12-9 PM for much of our area to capture this. Our west MO and central MO counties are left out due to uncertainty of lingering rain and cloud cover from an early morning MCS (see below for more details). 20-50% chance for thunderstorms north of I-44 Thursday morning: An MCS is forecast to develop across east KS/NE late today and move through N MO tonight. The tail-end of this MCS will reach into west MO between 5-8 AM. Most CAMs dissipate this complex through the morning, however, given known model biases, HREF mean MUCAPE values ahead of the system at 1500-2000 J/kg, and observed patterns of MCSs the last few days, would not be surprised to see convection and rain survive through the I-44 corridor, possibly impacting Joplin and Springfield (20-40% chance). There is increasing confidence that thunderstorms will at least impact areas such as Warsaw, Versailles, and Nevada. Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening: A bulbous trough will traverse the Northern Plains Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis across MN associated with this trough will continue to pull moisture northward, creating a broad warm sector across all of MO. This warm sector will be characterized by 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE beneath 25-35 kts of deep layer shear as a jet streak attached to the trough enters the region. A SW- NE oriented trailing cold front will sag into the region from the NW. Despite weak convergence, this should be enough to force a broken line of scattered thunderstorms across our area during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms may become severe given the ripe warm sector environment. The best chance of these storms will be between 3-9 PM, generally along and then east of I-44. The threat for severe weather is quite conditional at the moment. There are a few scenarios that we are watching out for: Scenario 1: The current morning MCS forecast pans out as expected and stays north of I-44. This will allow for an unstable warm sector along and SE of I-44, primed for scattered severe storm development. Scenario 2: The morning MCS works its way much farther south and east than currently forecast (which is a viable scenario given the past few days). This could work over the area and produce more rain-cooled/stable air, making it difficult for severe storms to develop. Scenario 3: The morning MCS works its way farther south and east than currently forecast, but the mass response lifts any outflow boundary northwards and destabilizes the atmosphere enough for scattered severe storms. In this scenario, any outflow boundary storms interact with could bring increased threats for damaging winds, large hail, and possibly a brief tornado. No matter the scenario, the kinematic environment will be largely unchanged. Deep-layer shear at 25-35 kts will mainly support multicellular clusters. This will bring damaging winds up to 60 mph, and hail up to the size of quarters as the main hazards. Heavy rainfall will also be a hazard with PWATs in the 1.75-2.00" range, though the storms will be progressive, so widespread flooding is not expected. However, any flow modification along any outflow boundary could bump local values up to 30-40 kts, which would support a supercell or two. With storm-relative inflow rather weak (<25 kts) and HREF model soundings depicting high RH through 700-500 mb, these will likely be mini supercells, capable of the same hazards. There is a low-end risk of tornadoes (1-2%) with these supercells, mainly resulting from any favorable storm-storm or storm- boundary interactions. Though with shear vectors mostly perpendicular to the cold front keeping storms semi-discrete, and storm-relative inflow from the SE with the line of storms oriented SW to NE, storm-to-storm interactions will be few and far between. Afterwards, lows Thursday night will be mild in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Calmer weather and lower chances for storms through Tuesday: After the cold front and trough progresses east after Thursday night, deeper ridging will take hold of the south-central Plains. NW`ly flow will then overtake our region. This will bring seasonable temperatures and relatively calmer weather through Tuesday. However, with our region between a deep ridge to the west and deep trough to the east, any perturbation dropping through the region could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, possibly as remnant MCSs. The first of these opportunities will be Friday night with 20-40% chances, higher chances toward the SW corner of MO. Lower chances will then exist Saturday night (15-25%), but could increase as greater model agreement occurs with subsequent forecasts. After Saturday night, PoPs will be below 20% through Tuesday. Highs during this period will be seasonable in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the middle to upper 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions will occur across the TAF sites this evening. Storms have developed across the Central Plains this evening and this activity could start to move southeast into the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Additional storm chances will then occur Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will be south to southeasterly this evening into tonight and will become more southwesterly during the day on Thursday and could be gusty at times. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ097-101. MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066>068- 077>080-088>091-093>095-101>104. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ077- 079>082-088>097-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Wise