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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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716 FXUS63 KSGF 150802 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 302 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat index values reaching 100-105 degrees today. Heat Advisory in effect from 12pm-9pm today. - A remnant thunderstorm complex will bring showers and thunderstorms mainly north of Highway 60 this morning. Main hazards will be heavy rain and wind gusts up to 50 mph. - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind and large hail are the main severe weather risks (15% SPC risk), with tornadoes being a lower risk (<=2% SPC risk). - 40-60% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms late Friday into early Saturday, with a marginal risk for severe storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Ongoing morning convective complex is gradually weakening as it moves east. Still, expect precip to persist through the eastern CWA, mainly north of Highway 60. Lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall are the main concerns with this activity. Models are struggling to handle current convection well, which reduces confidence in the forecast for excessive heat and thunderstorm/severe potential later today. Questions remain in the evolution of morning convection, including how long it persists and ultimately the extent and location of airmass modification. Overall, looking at potential for excessive heat with heat index values of 100-105 this afternoon and evening. Clusters of thunderstorms with potential for large hail (1-1.25" diameter), damaging winds (60 mph), and heavy rainfall will also be possible this afternoon and evening. Precipitable water values are around 2 inches. Tornado potential is very low (<=2%). More details below... It appears most likely that northern portions of the area will stay a bit cooler today, but still see heat index values around 100. This would also reduce afternoon/evening thunderstorm and severe potentials. However, airmass recovery is still possible in this area so stay tuned to updates through the day. Far southern portions of the area have the greatest chance at seeing significant destabilization and excessive heat this afternoon and evening. Central areas, between the far south and far north) are the most uncertain since they may stay more stable and a bit cooler if morning convection over performs, or could be warmer with greater instability if morning convection under performs or if afternoon airmass recovery is greater. Severe weather and excessive heat will be possible in these areas, but with increased potential for that forecast to not work out. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 There is a 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into early Saturday with potential for clusters of storms to move through the area. Depending on time of day and resulting instability, severe storms will be possible. Mainly looking at a large hail and damaging wind threat. Heavy rainfall and flooding where training convection occurs are also possible. Timing, location, and coverage are in question, so stay tuned for updates. Friday looks to be another hot day with heat index values of 100-105 (possible up to 110). The rest of the long term looks dry for the most part with temperatures closer to normal. Look for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Saturday, dropping further into the 80s for Sunday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Storms have developed across the Central Plains and this activity could start to move southeast into the area late tonight into Thursday morning. Additional storm chances will then occur Thursday afternoon and evening. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ097-101. MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ077-079>082-088>097-101>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Titus