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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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420 FXUS63 KSGF 180815 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - 30-50% chance for showers and storms west of Springfield tonight - Cool and dry for the upcoming week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 The Ozarks are sitting in the northwest flow between a high pressure center to the southwest and a low pressure center to the northeast. Pieces of shortwave energy are expected to begin rounding the top of the ridge and passing through the area today, providing lift for a few potential storms midday into early afternoon. These would be confined to the far SW corner of MO and SE corner of KS where the weakest cap, better instability, and better moisture are confined. This is a low probability scenario with <30% PoPs. The majority of the region will stay dry through the day. Cloud cover will increase throughout the day into the overnight. Better chances for rain occur overnight tonight into the early morning hours Monday as a low-level jet enhances the shortwave energy streaming in from the northwest. Areas west of a NW-SE diagonal bisect through the CWA will have a 30-50% chance of seeing showers and storms from about midnight until sunrise. Instability is very limited, and those farthest southwest will be the most likely to hear thunder while those farther east may just get showers. Highs today will reach the mid 80s in the north and the mid 90s in the south. Temperatures/dewpoints underperformed model blend guidance yesterday and this is expected with continued northwest flow, cloud cover, and precipitation chances, so these were decreased from initialization. Widespread Heat Index values above advisory criteria are not expected, though some local pockets in the southwest may see ~105 briefly. Otherwise, values will range from the high 80s in the north to around 90 in Springfield to around 100 in the southwest. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. As we continue to sit in northwest flow, temperatures will exhibit a cooling trend for the next several days. Highs Monday will sit in the low to mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s overnight (high 50s in low-lying areas out east). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 It looks dry in the long term with shortwave energy over the ridge slowing down and the high pressure generally staying put. High temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s through at least Thursday before the high pressure finally starts to impinge and warm things back up into the 90s by the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with the exception of the possibility for isolated storms in far southwest Missouri (KJLN) around early afternoon and more widespread coverage at the very end of the TAF period that could decrease CIG/VIS to MVFR momentarily. Calm winds this morning that start to pick up around midday but do not exceed 10 kts. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Nelson LONG TERM...Nelson AVIATION...Nelson