716
FXUS63 KSGF 150802
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
302 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat index values reaching 100-105 degrees today. Heat
  Advisory in effect from 12pm-9pm today.

- A remnant thunderstorm complex will bring showers and
  thunderstorms mainly north of Highway 60 this morning. Main
  hazards will be heavy rain and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
  evening. Damaging wind and large hail are the main severe
  weather risks (15% SPC risk), with tornadoes being a lower
  risk (<=2% SPC risk).

- 40-60% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms late
  Friday into early Saturday, with a marginal risk for severe
  storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Ongoing morning convective complex is gradually weakening as it
moves east. Still, expect precip to persist through the eastern
CWA, mainly north of Highway 60. Lightning, gusty winds, and
heavy rainfall are the main concerns with this activity.

Models are struggling to handle current convection well, which
reduces confidence in the forecast for excessive heat and
thunderstorm/severe potential later today. Questions remain in
the evolution of morning convection, including how long it
persists and ultimately the extent and location of airmass
modification.

Overall, looking at potential for excessive heat with heat index
values of 100-105 this afternoon and evening. Clusters of
thunderstorms with potential for large hail (1-1.25" diameter),
damaging winds (60 mph), and heavy rainfall will also be
possible this afternoon and evening. Precipitable water values
are around 2 inches. Tornado potential is very low (<=2%). More
details below...

It appears most likely that northern portions of the area will
stay a bit cooler today, but still see heat index values around
100. This would also reduce afternoon/evening thunderstorm and
severe potentials. However, airmass recovery is still possible
in this area so stay tuned to updates through the day.

Far southern portions of the area have the greatest chance at
seeing significant destabilization and excessive heat this
afternoon and evening.

Central areas, between the far south and far north) are the most
uncertain since they may stay more stable and a bit cooler if
morning convection over performs, or could be warmer with
greater instability if morning convection under performs or if
afternoon airmass recovery is greater. Severe weather and
excessive heat will be possible in these areas, but with
increased potential for that forecast to not work out.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

There is a 40-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday
afternoon into early Saturday with potential for clusters of
storms to move through the area. Depending on time of day and
resulting instability, severe storms will be possible. Mainly
looking at a large hail and damaging wind threat. Heavy rainfall
and flooding where training convection occurs are also
possible. Timing, location, and coverage are in question, so
stay tuned for updates. Friday looks to be another hot day with
heat index values of 100-105 (possible up to 110).

The rest of the long term looks dry for the most part with
temperatures closer to normal. Look for highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s Saturday, dropping further into the 80s for Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Storms have developed across the Central Plains and this
activity could start to move southeast into the area late
tonight into Thursday morning. Additional storm chances will
then occur Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ077-079>082-088>097-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus