420
FXUS63 KSGF 180815
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
315 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 30-50% chance for showers and storms west of Springfield
  tonight

- Cool and dry for the upcoming week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

The Ozarks are sitting in the northwest flow between a high pressure
center to the southwest and a low pressure center to the northeast.
Pieces of shortwave energy are expected to begin rounding the top of
the ridge and passing through the area today, providing lift for a
few potential storms midday into early afternoon. These would be
confined to the far SW corner of MO and SE corner of KS where the
weakest cap, better instability, and better moisture are confined.
This is a low probability scenario with <30% PoPs. The majority of
the region will stay dry through the day. Cloud cover will increase
throughout the day into the overnight.

Better chances for rain occur overnight tonight into the early
morning hours Monday as a low-level jet enhances the shortwave
energy streaming in from the northwest. Areas west of a NW-SE
diagonal bisect through the CWA will have a 30-50% chance of seeing
showers and storms from about midnight until sunrise. Instability is
very limited, and those farthest southwest will be the most likely
to hear thunder while those farther east may just get showers.

Highs today will reach the mid 80s in the north and the mid 90s in
the south. Temperatures/dewpoints underperformed model blend
guidance yesterday and this is expected with continued northwest
flow, cloud cover, and precipitation chances, so these were
decreased from initialization. Widespread Heat Index values above
advisory criteria are not expected, though some local pockets in the
southwest may see ~105 briefly. Otherwise, values will range from
the high 80s in the north to around 90 in Springfield to around 100
in the southwest. Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

As we continue to sit in northwest flow, temperatures will exhibit a
cooling trend for the next several days. Highs Monday will sit in
the low to mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s overnight (high
50s in low-lying areas out east).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

It looks dry in the long term with shortwave energy over the ridge
slowing down and the high pressure generally staying put. High
temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s through at least Thursday
before the high pressure finally starts to impinge and warm things
back up into the 90s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with the exception of
the possibility for isolated storms in far southwest Missouri
(KJLN) around early afternoon and more widespread coverage at
the very end of the TAF period that could decrease CIG/VIS to
MVFR momentarily. Calm winds this morning that start to pick up
around midday but do not exceed 10 kts.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nelson
LONG TERM...Nelson
AVIATION...Nelson