


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
417 FXUS63 KSGF 080659 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 159 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances (50-65%) for showers and thunderstorms beginning early afternoon across the area. There is the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph in addition to localized heavy rainfall. - Additional rain chances (30-50%) persist through late week into next weekend. Highest chances occur in the afternoon and evenings. - Temperatures remain near normal for early July. Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Models show an upper level ridging pattern over the western CONUS, creating northwesterly flow aloft over the region, with a shortwave trough to our north/northeast just west of the Great Lakes. A frontal boundary is currently bisecting central to northwest Missouri, with a surface low over northeast KS/southeast NE. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms have been observed across the area during the early morning hours, however they have since diminished. Further north over northwest MO, an MCS has been pushing southeast overnight. Although this is expected to weaken before reaching the CWA, this will play a factor in further convection later this afternoon. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and a moist airmass (dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will lead to strong destabilization late morning through the afternoon, with >2500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE and marginal shear (~20-25kt bulk shear). With upper level energy moving through the area, enough forcing and instability is expected to lead to multicell clusters of showers and thunderstorms (30-60% pops). SPC Day 1 severe outlook continues to highlight a Marginal risk (1 of 5) for the entire area today to account for the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms. The primary hazards will be MCS-driven damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, with localized heavy rainfall (PWATs range between 1.5 to 2.0 inches) leading to a local flash flooding threat as well. This activity will gradually diminish through the evening as daytime heating diminishes. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Once the shortwave pushes east over the Great Lakes region and we progress into mid to late week, the overall pattern will support daily rain chances. For Wednesday, much of the northwest portion of the CWA will remain dry, with a 25-45% chance of light rain southeast of I-44 in the afternoon/evening. Thursday will offer the lowest rain chances (<20%), with higher chances (20-55%) Friday afternoon into the weekend. All day washouts aren`t expected, however where rain does occur, localized heavy rainfall will be possible. Near-normal temperatures are expected, with daily highs in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s, and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as 16Z later this morning through early evening. Confidence in coverage has decreased, so continued the PROB30 groups in the TAFs for now. Any stronger storm that impacts the terminals would lower visibilities from heavy rainfall and bring changing wind conditions. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Melto