466
FXUS61 KRNK 130901
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
501 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front should push mainly east of the area today, limiting
shower and storm chances to generally isolated coverage
for the weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm chances can be
expected Monday through Tuesday, while another system brings
more widespread rain towards midweek. Temperatures will increase
with heat index values approaching 100 degrees in Piedmont
again for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1. Heat returns today with only isolated shower/storm chance.

Some persistent shower development in the far eastern Piedmont has
been propagating NEWD this morning, which should largely diminish as
the front and moisture axis meanders eastward. Thinking fog
development should be patchy and has the greatest chance in the east
where some notable rainfall occurred yesterday. Otherwise some
stratocu development in some other parts of the area may actually
hinder fog potential.

Morning cloud coverage should scatter/mix during the daytime and
should have some partly cloudy daytime cu field. Limited some of the
NBM pops today as there should only be an isolated shower/storm
potential near the east or possibly triggering off the mountains.

Temps today look to climb back above climo norms with many locations
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and even some mid 90s near the
Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Heat Indices above 100 degrees possible Monday in the Piedmont.
2. Above normal temperatures expected over the weekend.
3. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms may develop along Blue Ridge
Sunday and Monday.

Ridging aloft over the southeastern US states, and surface high
pressure settling in over the Mid Atlantic will keep precipitation
chances limited for most through the period. Above normal
temperatures and modest atmospheric moisture could spark a few
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon across the mountains, but
storms are not expecting to become severe, due to lack of a strong
forcing mechanism and upper level dynamics. Increasing heights point
to a continued warming trend in temperatures. By Monday,
probabilities for high temperatures over 95 degrees exceed 90% in
the Piedmont and VA Southside, and in the Roanoke and Shenandoah
Valleys. Heat indices near 105 degrees are possible, so Heat
Advisories may be needed to start the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Heat indices around 105 degrees possible Tuesday in the Piedmont
and VA Southside.
2. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through midweek,
and continue through remainder of work week.

Surface high pressure will continue to extend over the area for the
early part of the work week, keeping only low shower and storm
chances in the beginning of this forecast period. Strong daytime
heating and decent moisture could lead to afternoon orographically
forced showers and thunderstorms along the Blue Ridge Tuesday. Above
normal temperatures will continue, and heat indices exceeding 105
degrees are certainly possible in the Piedmont and VA Southside
Tuesday afternoon. Probabilities for high temperatures above 95
degrees are even higher Tuesday east of the Blue Ridge and in the
Roanoke and Shenandoah Valleys, between 95 to 100%.

An upper low crosses southern Canada through the middle of the week,
with the trough digging into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region by Wednesday. The associated surface cold front will pass
approach the area Wednesday, exiting the region later in the week.
More widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
with the passage of this front, though long range deterministic
models differ in how quickly the front crosses the area. Some
suggest the front linger across eastern VA and NC, extending into
the southeastern US, through the end of the work week, which would
keep shower and storm chances in the forecast through at least
Friday. The second half of the week does not look to be a total
washout, but rather higher chances of showers and storm each
afternoon and evening, waning overnight each night, until the front
finally moves farther from the area. With precipitable water values
exceeding the 90th percentile relative to climatology, any of these
showers could produce locally moderate to heavy rain. Potential for
thunderstorms to become severe is uncertain this time, and depends
on the progression of the front and the upper low. With increased
cloud cover and rain by the second half of the work week,
temperatures will be slightly cooler, closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

Some lingering precip for the eastern sites in the next few
hours, otherwise most sites should have cigs lowering into LIFR.
Some fog could develop also and bring the vsbys down this
morning. Daytime clouds should be VFR with a FEW/SCT cu field
near 4-6 kft. Winds look to be light to calm through the period.

Forecast confidence is moderate.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The weekend looks drier with morning fog possible. Afternoon
TSRA/MVFR chances increase again Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday
into Thursday, a front crosses the region, bringing more
widespread SHRA/TSRA and sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Except for perhaps the daytime high for Blacksburg on July 16, we
currently are not forecasting record high temperatures or record
maximum low temperatures Monday, July 15, and Tuesday, July 16,
values will be close enough that some folks might be curious what
the records are. Below you will find a table that lists these values
for different locations in our region and the years those records
were set.

************* RECORDS FOR July 15 *************
+=============================================+
|  LOCATION   | RECORD HIGH  | RECORD MAX LOW |
| Blacksburg  |  99 in 1954  |   72 in 1954   |
| Bluefield   |  91 in 1951  |   72 in 1942   |
| Danville    | 104 in 1936  |   79 in 1922   |
| Lynchburg   | 101 in 1936  |   77 in 1988   |
| Roanoke     | 103 in 1936  |   74 in 1995   |
+=============================================+



************* RECORDS FOR July 16 *************
+=============================================+
|  LOCATION   | RECORD HIGH  | RECORD MAX LOW |
| Blacksburg  |  93 in 1983  |   70 in 2020   |
| Bluefield   |  96 in 1988  |   71 in 1980   |
| Danville    | 102 in 1934  |   77 in 1920   |
| Lynchburg   | 103 in 1934  |   76 in 1937   |
| Roanoke     | 100 in 1988  |   74 in 2020   |
+=============================================+

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AB/SH
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...AB/NF
CLIMATE...DS