597
FXUS61 KRNK 292342
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
742 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering warm and unstable airmass remains in place through
at least Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region
Tuesday/Wednesday, which will bring a slightly cooler and less
humid airmass into the region. Until then, diurnal showers and
storms with heavy rain resulting in localized flooding, as well
as isolated severe storms causing wind damage. With the frontal
passage on Tuesday, thunderstorms may pose more of a severe
threat across the Piedmont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Storms in the process of weakening; expect similar weather
for tomorrow.

2) Areas of dense fog overnight with partly to mostly cloudy
skies.

Showers and storms with heavy rainfall are in the process of
weakening this evening. One of the strongest storms of the
evening only managed to produce dime-sized hail (sub-severe).
Expect a repeat of today for tomorrow afternoon and evening as
far as storms go. We should see storms begin to develop along
and west of the Blue Ridge by 2 PM or a bit earlier. The main
threat will again be heavy rainfall possibly leading to flooding
and a lower threat for wind and hail. The mode will again be
single to multicellular.

Expect partly cloudy skies overnight, with areas of dense fog
and patchy stratus towards morning. Overnight lows will be in
the 60s and 70s.



As of 200 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms continue
with an isolated threat for strong damaging winds and hail
associated with the stronger thunderstorms that develop.

Chances for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms,
especially for areas west of the Blue Ridge are expected to
continue on Sunday as a the area remains under the influence
of a warm and humid environment. There is little to no mid and
upper level forcing for ascent on Monday outside of an
approaching mid to upper level trough approaching the Great
Lakes region, which will play a larger role with Tuesday`s
weather. With very little upper level forcing for ascent, this
means that these showers and thunderstorms will primarily be
terrain and outflow induced once daytime heating increases
enough to lift parcels to their LFC.

Again, with not much flow in the mid and upper levels all day on
Monday, these storms will likely meander and flow along outflow
boundaries left behind from previous storms downbursts. These
storms also look to remain primarily west of the Blue Ridge
where orographical influences will allow storms to initiate.
Initial instability values look to be slightly higher than
today`s values, with HREF ensemble mean SBCAPE forecast in the
2000-2500 J/Kg range. DCAPE values look to be on par if not
slightly lower than the last several days, with forecast values
in the 600-800 J/Kg range. This will still lead to a few
isolated severe thunderstorms that could lead to strong winds
and isolated small hail as evident of the 73 mph wind gust
measured in a downburst at ROA airport Saturday evening. Winds
in these downbursts from thunderstorms will likely be the
biggest threat, with downed trees and power lines causing
isolated power outages where the strongest thunderstorms
downbursts occur.

Overall, expect temperatures to be seasonal for this time of the
year, with highs east of the Blue Ridge in the low 90s, and
temperatures west of the Blue Ridge in the low to mid 80s. Early
morning fog is expected again, especially over areas that see rain
on Sunday afternoon and evening from today`s showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Storms expected Tuesday afternoon and evening.

2. Cooler, drier air behind frontal passage.

An upper level trough will pass over the upper Mississippi Valley
Monday night, then over the Ohio Valley Tuesday. This trough will
push a cold front across the region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms should move across the mountains
in the early to mid afternoon hours, then into the foothills through
the afternoon. Storms are expected to intensify during the late
afternoon/early evening with better shear and higher dew points (low
to mid 70s) over the Piedmont. SPC currently has the entire area in
a Marginal Risk with the primary storm threat being damaging wind
gusts. Would not be surprised if they upgrade to a Slight Risk in
the next update or two. High pressure with cooler air will move over
the region Tuesday night, then a second system will bring in drier
air Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Slightly cooler and drier Wednesday and Thursday.

2. Heat and humidity return next weekend.

High pressure moves off the New England coast Thursday into Friday,
with winds become easterly. This easterly flow will bring Atlantic
moisture into the region increasing the humidity starting Friday.
Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are possible next weekend with
temperatures warming into the mid 80s to lower 90s across the
mountains and mid to upper 90s in the foothills and Piedmont


Models are downplaying the chance for showers and thunderstorms
until next Sunday as another upper level ridge builds over the
region. High temperature will gradually increase into the mid 80 to
mid 90s by the end of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...

Airmass showers and thunderstorms are in the process of
subsiding this evening. Overnight we should see partly to mostly
cloudy mid and high level clouds. Additional low CIGs and VSBYs
look to develop for BLF, LWB, and BCB where lingering surface
moisture will lead to fog and low clouds formation overnight...
with as low as LIFR conditions at times. ROA and LYH may see
brief MVFR visibilities. Fog and CIGs should scatter out by the
12-14 UTC timeframe. Expect a repeat of this afternoon and
evening`s weather for Monday beginning around 18Z west of the
Blue Ridge.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily shower and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday,
but a frontal passage will then bring drier conditions back to
the region for Wednesday and Thursday. VFR conditions are
expected outside of morning valley fog Wednesday through
next weekend, with only isolated chances for showers and
thunderstorms expected late in the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB/SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...EB/SH