169
FXUS61 KRNK 170536
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
136 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widely scattered showers and storms will occur today ahead of a
cold front, but should see better coverage late tonight into
Sunday as the front moves across Virginia. Drier and cooler
weather will follow after Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Patchy fog this morning.

2) Widely scattered showers/storms today.

3) Better chance appears to reach our mountains late tonight.

Few showers this morning across the Piedmont should exit by
dawn, with a few showers also possible by dawn over the WV
mountains. Fog appears likely in most locations, may be locally
dense but looks like enough mid/high clouds to keep it from
being widespread.

Models coming in with lower chances of convection today with two
areas to concentrate on, the Piedmont east of Lynchburg/Danville
and the WV mountains to the NC/TN border. Severe and excessive
rainfall threat looks limited as well. Confidence is average on
coverage as concern is models still show upper flow being
difluent across us with embedded vorts tracking across, so with
rich moisture in the airmass, may see more coverage, but for now
leaning toward a blend of models with less coverage across the
Alleghanys to New/Roanoke Valleys to the NC foothills.

Should see mix of sun/clouds today with highs at or about 5
degrees above normal, with near 90 east to 80s west.

Better upper support moves into the mountains late tonight, so
this evening looking at less coverage in the piedmont, with
increasing pops over the mountains. Cold front expected to be
across the upper Ohio Valley to south central KY by 12z
Sunday. Low temperatures stay muggy in the 60s for most, and
around 70 in the Piedmont.



&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Showers and storms through the weekend

2: Temps mostly around normal

Latest model runs have slowed down an approaching front coming out
of the Great Lakes, through the OH Valley. Frontal passage through
our region will likely be later Saturday evening and into the
overnight period. Accordingly, the period with heaviest and most
coverage for showers has shifted into the Saturday night time frame.
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for Saturday, so
despite the front potentially missing peak heating on Saturday
afternoon, the front is fairly dynamic and progressive as far as
summertime fronts go. As usual with these events, mountains will be
most likely to see storm formation, and in the post frontal
environment on Sunday, downsloping will provide some suppression for
storms into the Piedmont and Southside. A remaining trough will
continue to encourage precipitation on Sunday, despite a drier post
frontal environment. Monday will see stronger winds, leading to some
upslope shower formation. Temperatures will remain stagnant and
around normal due to the showers and cloud cover holding things
steady.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1: Waning precip chances next week

By Tuesday, surface high pressure will take over the synoptic
pattern. It will be centered near the lower peninsula of Michigan,
and as the week moves on, it will drift east, continuing to shield
us and block any precip formation. The next opportunity for rain
could be as late as next weekend, as some guidance indicates an
upper wave over the southeast CONUS. That is a low confidence
opportunity, however, and we could go longer without rain.
Temperatures will be below normal with highs held in the mid to
upper 70s most of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Saturday...

Ceilings will lower into the IFR to MVFR range overnight and
patchy MVFR fog will develop, especially in the mountains.
Ridges will be in the clouds. KLWB and KBCB may lower to LIFR in
dense fog, but that will depend on the amount of cloud cover.

VFR conditions return to all local TAF sites around 14Z/10AM
Saturday. The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be
widely scattered on Saturday afternoon/evening so no mention in
the tafs.

Above average confidence on wind.
Average confidence on ceiling and visibility.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High probability of precipitation arrives Sunday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will continue
into Monday morning with the passage of a cold front.

MVFR clouds and upslope showers are expected to remain over the
mountains through Monday. Ceilings should be VFR east of the
Blue Ridge.

Confidence is higher for dry and VFR conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AMS/WP