751
FXUS61 KRNK 050522
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
122 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep the weather mainly dry today, though
cannot rule out an isolated storm in the North Carolina
mountains. A tropical system will move onshore in South Carolina
by Sunday pushing showers and a few storms toward the Blue Ridge
and Piedmont. This system weakens early next week but combined
with increasing moisture and a front to the north will keep
shower and thunderstorm chances around.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 110 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1. A mostly dry Saturday with near seasonal temperatures.

Expecting tranquil weather today into tonight. Some patchy
clouds and fog this morning will give way to sunshine. Watching
tropical depression 3 off the southeast coast. Overall no
impacts this period, but some convective allowing models show
some upper support moving across the mountains this afternoon
and with some heating and low level moisture could bring some
isolated showers/storms. Overall coverage is less than 15
percent so keeping dry for most, but don`t be surprised to see
one or two showers/storms pop up in the afternoon between Boone,
NC and Marion, VA.

Highs today will be in the 80s.

Tonight, models start pushing mid and high clouds our way toward
the piedmont late from the tropical system, but no precip. Lows
still running close to normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s
mountains to mid 60s east.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Tropical disturbance off the Georgia coast to potentially
impact southeastern portion of the region.

The main takeaway with this part of the forecast is the tropical
disturbance off the eastern coast of Georgia is projected to go
inland and travel northeast through the states of North
Carolina and eastern Virginia. Hurricane Hunters are planning to
investigate the storm system further which will assist in
understanding its potential strength and movement. The NHC has a
70% chance of this system developing into a tropical storm
within the next 2 days. Even if this system was to become a
tropical storm, it would quickly lose strength once it hits the
mainland. Current hurricane model guidance suggests the storm
may be inland enough to affect areas east of the Blue Ridge,
especially in the NC Piedmont and Southside VA. The overall
impact of this system looks to be minimal as winds will become
easterly and shift to northwesterly as the system passes with
wind gusts only up to 15 mph. Precipitation accumulation looks
to be up to 0.25" but confidence in this part of the forecast is
currently weak given the uncertainty of the storm`s projected
path.

Otherwise, dew points will begin to rise into the 60s and 70s
regionwide and high temperatures will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s
as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. The heat index is
expected to be below Heat Advisory criteria but will be close to 90
degrees for areas east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms next week.

An approaching frontal system will stall over the Mid-Atlantic mid-
next week to provide a boundary for storm initiation. Meanwhile,
two upper level ridges form over the southwestern CONUS and southern
coastal CONUS. While the southwestern ridge will do more of the
heavy lifting, these systems will bring relatively zonal winds to
the area and direct shortwaves from the Great Plains and through the
Mid-Atlantic. Several shortwaves are expected next week and with the
boundary front, as well as moist and hot conditions, daily showers
and thunderstorms are expected to make a return to the region. While
diurnal heating will provide plenty of CAPE, Thursday afternoon
looks to be the only day to have enough shear for severe storm
potential. Machine Learning model guidance also suggests the highest
likelihood for severe weather will be during the latter half of next
week. PWATs are forecast to be between 1.25-1.75" which is a little
higher than this time of year, so repeated showers also raise a
concern for flooding. Confidence on flood and severe potential is
currently low due how far out these events are.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Saturday...

Overall, VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites through the
current TAF period, ending at 06Z Sunday. Aside for some
scattered clouds not much to speak of with respect to cloud
cover. Winds through the period are expected to remain light,
less than 10 kts. Any late night fog should be confined to the
mountain valleys, potentially impacting KLWB, otherwise no vsby
restriction anticipated.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through mid next week. May see some isolated to scattered
storms Sunday into Monday with chances increasing into the
middle of next week. Moisture from TD Three is expected to
remain south and east of the forecast area, but may tease KDAN
late Sunday into Monday. Periods of heavy rain are expected
along the coast, mainly east of I-95. Storm chances increase
midweek with a front to our north.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM/WP