756
FXUS61 KRNK 171817
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
217 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widely scattered showers and storms will occur this afternoon
and evening ahead of a cold front. Another round of storms
possible on Sunday as the front moves across Virginia. Rain and
clouds may linger through Monday as the front slows, but drier
high pressure will move in by mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Storms are possible this afternoon and evening.

2) Storm chances will continue into Sunday.

Upper trough centered over the Great Lakes today and southwest
flow overhead continues to reinforce warming temperatures and
humid air into the region. Multiple pieces of upper energy in
advance of the main trough will enhance the potential for
afternoon and evening storms.

Already rather unstable this afternoon as clouds have cleared
and now seeing strong surface heating across the entire area.
As a result, RAP analysis already indicating SBCAPE/MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range along with increasing bulk shear.
This should support a few strong storms this afternoon/evening.
Coverage and intensity of storms decrease with loss of heating
tonight.

Some fog development again tonight and may start the day on
Sunday a little more cloudy than today. Upper trough amplifies
by Sunday and will pass overhead Sunday evening. Associated
surface front will also pass across the region and this will be
the focus for a renewed round of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Better synoptic support may result in slightly better storm
organization, but limiting factors to storm development will be
residual cloud cover in the morning and the timing of the
front. Currently, best storm probabilities will be along and
east of US29 tomorrow afternoon and evening and a few storms
could be capable of strong damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1: Showers and storms persist through Monday

2: Dry and quieter weather starts Tuesday


A steady trough will maintain its axis over the east coast
throughout the weekend. Even after a front passes through the area
late on Saturday, chances for storms over the entire CWA will
remain. Forecast soundings do indicate some modest instability,
which could force some storms to be strong or severe. A marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms is outlooked for the eastern half of
the region both Sunday and Monday. As the trough shifts and places
itself to our east, there will be some stronger northwesterly winds
that blow through the area. Gusts will be enough to knock off your
hat, up to 25 MPH in more mountainous areas. With cooler than normal
weather bringing highs in the 60s for far southwest VA and
southeastern WV, it`ll be a sample of fall weather; cool and
blustery.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
... As of 210 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1: Dry and cool continues

The second half of next week will be dominated by a zone of surface
high pressure that almost rotates around southwest VA. It will begin
filling into the OH Valley Tuesday, and over the course of the next
several days will circle around to PA and southern New England, and
then almost fuse with another zone of high pressure off the Atlantic
coast, stretching over most of the southeast CONUS. Heading into the
weekend, an additional mid-level subtropical anti-cyclonic gyre will
extend from the southern plains. As a result, most of next week will
be dry, with mostly clear skies, and fairly cool keeping highs in
the 70s for most of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR across the region early this afternoon and overall VFR
should continue into the evening and early overnight hours.
However, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible,
which could briefly reduce vsby. Very limited confidence on
storm coverage so opted to not add into TAFs.

Some lower cigs and fog again tonight and sub-vfr seems likely,
especially across the mountains. Clouds linger through the
morning and some MVFR stratus could remain through late in the
TAF period.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will continue
into Monday with the passage of a cold front.

MVFR clouds and upslope showers are expected to remain over the
mountains through Monday. Ceilings should be VFR east of the
Blue Ridge.

Confidence is higher for dry and VFR conditions Tuesday and
Wednesday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...BMG