![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
756 FXUS61 KRNK 171817 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 217 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Widely scattered showers and storms will occur this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Another round of storms possible on Sunday as the front moves across Virginia. Rain and clouds may linger through Monday as the front slows, but drier high pressure will move in by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Storms are possible this afternoon and evening. 2) Storm chances will continue into Sunday. Upper trough centered over the Great Lakes today and southwest flow overhead continues to reinforce warming temperatures and humid air into the region. Multiple pieces of upper energy in advance of the main trough will enhance the potential for afternoon and evening storms. Already rather unstable this afternoon as clouds have cleared and now seeing strong surface heating across the entire area. As a result, RAP analysis already indicating SBCAPE/MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range along with increasing bulk shear. This should support a few strong storms this afternoon/evening. Coverage and intensity of storms decrease with loss of heating tonight. Some fog development again tonight and may start the day on Sunday a little more cloudy than today. Upper trough amplifies by Sunday and will pass overhead Sunday evening. Associated surface front will also pass across the region and this will be the focus for a renewed round of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Better synoptic support may result in slightly better storm organization, but limiting factors to storm development will be residual cloud cover in the morning and the timing of the front. Currently, best storm probabilities will be along and east of US29 tomorrow afternoon and evening and a few storms could be capable of strong damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1: Showers and storms persist through Monday 2: Dry and quieter weather starts Tuesday A steady trough will maintain its axis over the east coast throughout the weekend. Even after a front passes through the area late on Saturday, chances for storms over the entire CWA will remain. Forecast soundings do indicate some modest instability, which could force some storms to be strong or severe. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is outlooked for the eastern half of the region both Sunday and Monday. As the trough shifts and places itself to our east, there will be some stronger northwesterly winds that blow through the area. Gusts will be enough to knock off your hat, up to 25 MPH in more mountainous areas. With cooler than normal weather bringing highs in the 60s for far southwest VA and southeastern WV, it`ll be a sample of fall weather; cool and blustery. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ... As of 210 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1: Dry and cool continues The second half of next week will be dominated by a zone of surface high pressure that almost rotates around southwest VA. It will begin filling into the OH Valley Tuesday, and over the course of the next several days will circle around to PA and southern New England, and then almost fuse with another zone of high pressure off the Atlantic coast, stretching over most of the southeast CONUS. Heading into the weekend, an additional mid-level subtropical anti-cyclonic gyre will extend from the southern plains. As a result, most of next week will be dry, with mostly clear skies, and fairly cool keeping highs in the 70s for most of the area. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday... VFR across the region early this afternoon and overall VFR should continue into the evening and early overnight hours. However, scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible, which could briefly reduce vsby. Very limited confidence on storm coverage so opted to not add into TAFs. Some lower cigs and fog again tonight and sub-vfr seems likely, especially across the mountains. Clouds linger through the morning and some MVFR stratus could remain through late in the TAF period. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Showers and thunderstorms with MVFR conditions will continue into Monday with the passage of a cold front. MVFR clouds and upslope showers are expected to remain over the mountains through Monday. Ceilings should be VFR east of the Blue Ridge. Confidence is higher for dry and VFR conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds in. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...BMG