


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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229 FXUS61 KRNK 111039 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 639 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern will generally remain unchanged through the weekend, with the next mid level system not expected to push through the area until next Monday. With warm and moist air lingering across the region, expect daily isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening. During the overnight hours, fog and low clouds will be possible, especially for river valleys and areas that saw rain the previous day. This fog and low clouds should lift each morning shortly after sunrise. Temperatures across the area will generally run around or just above normal values for this time of year. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight. Warm and muggy conditions expected. 2) Isolated thunderstorms are possible again mostly for mountain locations. Weak surface high pressure will be in place over the region on Friday, which will provide some subsidence across the area. This combined with extremely limited upper level forcing for ascent given the lack of mid and upper level vorticity and jet streaks respectively, will make for a lack of shower and thunderstorm activity across the region. With a lack of general forcing for ascent, shower and thunderstorm activity will predominantly be regulated to mountain zones where terrain influences can provide some surface based forcing for convection to initiate. Overall, inverted V soundings will allow for some strong gusty winds with any downbursts from storms that do develop; however, SBCAPE values look to be around 1500-2000 J/Kg across mountain locations given lower surface dewpoints compared to the Piedmont. Temperatures will be warm across the region, with upper 80s to low 90s east of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 80s west of the Blue Ridge. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 150 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) Daily afternoon storms remain possible, with Sunday seeing the highest coverage. 2) Temperatures slightly above average through the period. Saturday looks to be the drier of the two days this weekend, as drier air aloft will suppress convection across most of the area, with isolated storm chances due to diurnal heating. The exception to this will be in the NC mountains, as mid-level moisture will be highest there to allow for more coverage of storms. Storms will last into the evening before dissipating overnight with the loss of daytime heating. More of the same is expected Sunday, though moisture increases across the entire RNK CWA, and an upper-level trough approaches from the west. Highest PoPs will be west of the Blue Ridge into WV, which is closer to the trough. Isolated severe weather may be possible, as forecast soundings show an inverted V, which indicates damaging wind potential. A backdoor cold front will also try to move into the area from the northeast, which would also trigger more storms across the area, particularly for the northern Piedmont, but confidence is low for this scenario currently. A cold front approaches from the west on Monday, which again will cause afternoon storms to form across the Mid-Atlantic. As of now, the front does not look particularly strong, as the associated upper- level trough flattens out as it moves east. Best chances for rain will be across the Piedmont, with storms firing off the Blue Ridge and moving east into the evening. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall will be across most if not the entire area each day of the period, as recent heavy rains along with high rainfall rates in the storms that form this weekend will be capable of producing isolated flash flooding. Total QPF for the period is expected to generally be around 0.25-0.50" area-wide, with higher amounts possible in the heavier thunderstorms. Due to the less coverage of storms on Saturday, high temperatures will be slightly above average, with low 80s in the mountains and low 90s for the Piedmont. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices will be around 100 for the eastern Piedmont. Similar temperatures are expected on Sunday, but there is less confidence in the highs, due to the potential backdoor front and cloud cover if storm coverage is widespread. Monday will have highs in the 80s. Lows each day will be consistent, mainly in the 60s, with low 70s for the Piedmont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 150 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: 1) A cold front moves through early next week, with drier weather for the midweek. 2) Near normal temperatures expected through the period. Showers and storms will continue into Monday night as the cold front off to the west moves into the area and pushes through by midday Tuesday. The front stalls near the coast, blocked by the Bermuda High offshore, before the front fizzles out midweek. For Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper level ridge across the Deep South will block some of the moisture flow into the area. However, diurnal heating along with modest surface dewpoints will allow for some storms to form each day, but the drier air aloft will limit convection potential across the area, with PoPs around 30% both days. By late week, the upper-ridge breaks down, with southerly flow returning at the surface, and daily afternoon storms chances increasing ahead of the next cold front that moves in for the weekend. Temperatures will be around normal through the period, with highs generally in the 80s, and lows in the 60s to low 70s as the summertime pattern continues. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday... MVFR to LIFR CIGs and VSBYs have developed across the area overnight and into this morning. It has slowly expanded across most mountain locations; however, some has developed in river valleys across the Piedmont as well, which is affecting LYH and DAN. These restrictions should lift quickly during the early morning hours, and give way to VFR conditions across the region at all terminals. A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible at ROA and BCB during the afternoon hours; however, chances look to remain isolated. Mostly clear skies sill persist across the region, with variable winds less than 5 knots at all terminals through the TAF period. Additional restrictions look to develop early Saturday morning across the area as low clouds and fog develop once again. .EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... The weather pattern will change very little through the end of the week, remaining conducive for isolated to scattered afternoon & evening storms, with higher coverage on some days more than others. Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions but with the potential for locally dense fog and MVFR/IFR stratus developing overnight, especially for locations that received significant rainfall during the evening prior. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ009>016- 018-019. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ001-002- 018. WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ043-044- 507. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB NEAR TERM...EB SHORT TERM...JCB LONG TERM...JCB AVIATION...EB EQUIPMENT...WP