985
FXUS61 KRNK 130514
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
114 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will cross the area Tuesday resulting
in clouds and isolated showers/storms, otherwise a large area
of high pressure centered over the northern Mid-Atlantic will
keep the weather mainly dry. The next widespread chance for rain
arrives toward the end of the week as a low pressure system
approaches from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message: Mainly dry weather but more clouds and a few
showers Tuesday along and south of the VA/NC border.

Just minor changes from previous forecast and still looks like a
disturbance moves across overhead today and with some moisture
convergence along/south of the VA/NC border, could see a few
showers, possibly some thunderstorms. Otherwise high pressure
will keep things dry but expect more mid and high clouds today
mixed in with intervals of sunshine, along with scattered
cumulus.

Any showers should fade with dusk and clearing out tonight for
most. Amount of fog Tue night will depend on how much coverage
of rain occurs. Models hinting at some fog/lower vsbys
along/south of the VA/NC border Wed morning.

Highs today will run about 5 degrees below normal with lower 80s
east to 70s west. Lows tonight closer to normal int the lower to
mid 60s Piedmont to mid to upper 50s mountains.

Forecast confidence above average except sky cover/storm
coverage today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1). Mostly Benign Weather Expected Through This Period,

2). Near to Slightly Below Normal Temperatures Expected to
Continue,

3). No Major Precipitation Events Expected.

The large scale synoptic pattern will continue to feature a
broad upper trough dominating the Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and
Northeastern U.S. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary or
baroclinic zone will remain to our south through the period
tracking slightly southward between Tuesday and Thursday as the
upper trough slowly deepens further through the week.

A couple of disturbances are slated to track through the base of
the upper trough near the 35-40 degree latitude range. Most
models indicate the potential for multiple MCSs as a result.
However, location and timing remains drastically different among
the various long range models. Overall, the track of any MCSs,
appears to favor the baroclinic zone to our south and any
meaningful precipitation through this period should remain to
our south.

The upper trough over the northeastern U.S. will continue to
provide a favorable pattern for below normal temperatures across
our region. A glance at the U.S. CONUS 850mb temperature pattern
features a ridge/tough temperature pattern with very hot
temperatures in the western U.S. exceeding +25C across much of
that region while the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast remains under a
large blob of only +16C air. In addition, the more humid air has
been relocated to our south. Thus, mid-August mornings will feel
more like early September with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
High temperatures will reach the 70s mountains and lower to mid
80s elsewhere. Very pleasant for mid-August!

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Low to Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction. High Confidence in Wind
  Speed,
- Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1). Overall Pattern Becoming More Unsettled,

2). Temperatures Remaining Below Normal.

Slight progression in the upper-level pattern will allow the
Great Lakes upper trough to deepen further as a tropical system
tracks northward through the western Atlantic, but well away
from the east coast. The old frontal boundary will drift into
the southeastern U.S. while a new frontal boundary moves into
the region from the west by Friday. While not an ideal pattern
for strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall given that the deep
Gulf moisture has been relocated further south and some
subsidence is expected across the east coast on the back side of
the northward tracking tropical system in the western Atlantic,
a band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the new
frontal system Fri-Sat. With the upper trough lingering into the
weekend, the unsettled weather conditions will continue with
considerable cloud cover, scattered showers and thunderstorms,
and below normal temperatures will continue.

/Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/
- Moderate Confidence in Temperatures,
- Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities,
- Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed,
- Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. Increasing
mid/upper level moisture tonight should prevent river fog
formation, except LWB. Weak instability may lead to widely
scattered showers/thunderstorms across the piedmont of NC
Tuesday afternoon possibly approaching DAN but too low of pops
to have in the forecast tafs.

Winds generally 5kt or less from the northeast to east.


AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Could be some fog Wed morning in typical mountain valleys and
along/south of the VA/NC border. Mainly dry weather expected
Wednesday and Thursday.

An organized area of low pressure will approach the area by
Friday bringing the potential for precipitation and widespread
sub-VFR flight conditions which could last through Saturday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB
AVIATION...PM/WP