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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
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985 FXUS61 KRNK 130514 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 114 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will cross the area Tuesday resulting in clouds and isolated showers/storms, otherwise a large area of high pressure centered over the northern Mid-Atlantic will keep the weather mainly dry. The next widespread chance for rain arrives toward the end of the week as a low pressure system approaches from the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: Mainly dry weather but more clouds and a few showers Tuesday along and south of the VA/NC border. Just minor changes from previous forecast and still looks like a disturbance moves across overhead today and with some moisture convergence along/south of the VA/NC border, could see a few showers, possibly some thunderstorms. Otherwise high pressure will keep things dry but expect more mid and high clouds today mixed in with intervals of sunshine, along with scattered cumulus. Any showers should fade with dusk and clearing out tonight for most. Amount of fog Tue night will depend on how much coverage of rain occurs. Models hinting at some fog/lower vsbys along/south of the VA/NC border Wed morning. Highs today will run about 5 degrees below normal with lower 80s east to 70s west. Lows tonight closer to normal int the lower to mid 60s Piedmont to mid to upper 50s mountains. Forecast confidence above average except sky cover/storm coverage today. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1). Mostly Benign Weather Expected Through This Period, 2). Near to Slightly Below Normal Temperatures Expected to Continue, 3). No Major Precipitation Events Expected. The large scale synoptic pattern will continue to feature a broad upper trough dominating the Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeastern U.S. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary or baroclinic zone will remain to our south through the period tracking slightly southward between Tuesday and Thursday as the upper trough slowly deepens further through the week. A couple of disturbances are slated to track through the base of the upper trough near the 35-40 degree latitude range. Most models indicate the potential for multiple MCSs as a result. However, location and timing remains drastically different among the various long range models. Overall, the track of any MCSs, appears to favor the baroclinic zone to our south and any meaningful precipitation through this period should remain to our south. The upper trough over the northeastern U.S. will continue to provide a favorable pattern for below normal temperatures across our region. A glance at the U.S. CONUS 850mb temperature pattern features a ridge/tough temperature pattern with very hot temperatures in the western U.S. exceeding +25C across much of that region while the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast remains under a large blob of only +16C air. In addition, the more humid air has been relocated to our south. Thus, mid-August mornings will feel more like early September with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures will reach the 70s mountains and lower to mid 80s elsewhere. Very pleasant for mid-August! /Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - Low to Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction. High Confidence in Wind Speed, - Low Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1). Overall Pattern Becoming More Unsettled, 2). Temperatures Remaining Below Normal. Slight progression in the upper-level pattern will allow the Great Lakes upper trough to deepen further as a tropical system tracks northward through the western Atlantic, but well away from the east coast. The old frontal boundary will drift into the southeastern U.S. while a new frontal boundary moves into the region from the west by Friday. While not an ideal pattern for strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall given that the deep Gulf moisture has been relocated further south and some subsidence is expected across the east coast on the back side of the northward tracking tropical system in the western Atlantic, a band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the new frontal system Fri-Sat. With the upper trough lingering into the weekend, the unsettled weather conditions will continue with considerable cloud cover, scattered showers and thunderstorms, and below normal temperatures will continue. /Confidence Levels in Forecast Parameters/ - Moderate Confidence in Temperatures, - Moderate Confidence in Precipitation Probabilities, - Moderate Confidence in Wind Direction and Speed, - Moderate Confidence in Thunderstorm Potential. && .AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 110 AM EDT Tuesday... Mainly VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. Increasing mid/upper level moisture tonight should prevent river fog formation, except LWB. Weak instability may lead to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms across the piedmont of NC Tuesday afternoon possibly approaching DAN but too low of pops to have in the forecast tafs. Winds generally 5kt or less from the northeast to east. AVIATION OUTLOOK... Could be some fog Wed morning in typical mountain valleys and along/south of the VA/NC border. Mainly dry weather expected Wednesday and Thursday. An organized area of low pressure will approach the area by Friday bringing the potential for precipitation and widespread sub-VFR flight conditions which could last through Saturday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...RAB AVIATION...PM/WP