160
FXUS61 KRNK 250056
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
856 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to dominate the area for the next
several days as the large upper level ridge starts to finally
break down starting Wednesday. As this occurs, expect more
shower and storm coverage heading through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 710 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1) Heat continues

Let the heat headlines expire at 9pm, though a few locations in
the Piedmont continue to experience heat indices close to 105
degrees, but these will drop soon to below 100.

Wednesday looks to stay hot, but storms and few more clouds may
impact temps/heat indices. Still getting enough humidity to
combine with highs in the 90s to the east of the mountains to
have an extreme heat warning for the Piedmont east of
Lynchburg/Danville/Reidsville and a heat advisory for the rest
of the lower elevations east of the Blue Ridge except Patrick
County.

A few showers/storms forming along the mountains south of I-81
in Smyth/Grayson County. Subsidence should limit coverage but
could see a brief flare up after dusk as cap weakens and
potential for a few storm across the I-64 corridor east-
southeast toward Buckingham. Overall most will be dry.

Previous discussion...

Upper level ridging that has been centered over the area the
last two days is expected to slightly break down as an upper
level low pushes west into Florida and Georgia. This effectively
creates a mid and level convergence zone across the VA/NC state
line by Wednesday afternoon. Across the surface, high pressure
is expected to settle into south eastern Canada which looks to
create a back-door front across Pennsylvania that will progress
a surface convergence boundary south across the area during the
afternoon hours. Both of these forcings for ascent will aid in
triggering thunderstorms across the area tomorrow, with
scattered to widespread coverage expected. Given that
temperatures will again surge into the mid to upper 90s east of
the Blue Ridge, and surface dewpoints will continue to maintain
values in the upper 60s to low 70s east of the Blue Ridge, the
SBCAPE values will surge into the 2000-2500 J/KG range. This
combined with DCAPE values in the 1500 J/KG range will lead to
practically any downburst from thunderstorms having strong to
severe winds, with storm motions likely dominated by outflow
boundaries from previous dying storms.

Thunderstorm coverage, and mid day cloud coverage may keep
temperatures from reaching extreme heat criteria; however,
Advisory level heat is likely again, and a new Heat Advisory
will be issued with this evening`s forecast package for a
portion of the area east of the Blue Ridge for Wednesday, with
heat index values in the 105-110 degree range again. Overall
high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s east of
the Blue Ridge, and upper 80s to low 90s west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for hot and humid weather to continue through
the end of this work week.

2) The chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will steadily
rise each day.

High pressure aloft starts to weaken through this period but
heat/humidity remain but not quite as hot as it has been. Storms
will be scattered Wed evening then abate overnight. A backdoor
front will be situated over northern VA Thursday. Will be
relying on some outflow and differential heating for storms
Thursday, so may be less coverage than currently forecast.

Meanwhile, moisture will advect north and then east around the
broad southeastern U.S. ridge interacting with a frontal
boundary. At the moment our area will still be closer to the
ridge aloft but with weakening of the ridge, storms may become
more common and widespread, but again not seeing everyone
getting rain. Those that do will likely have heavy rain given
this higher moisture content in the airmass. At the moment,
indications are that the mountains into the I-64 corridor will
have better coverage than the Piedmont of NC and southside VA
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for temperatures to remain above normal.

2) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon.

Additional rounds of scattered thunderstorms are possible
across much of the area into the weekend and early next week,
and will be a typical summer pattern for us.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 713 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected for much of the TAF period for all
terminals. Exception being river valley fog at LWB during the
early morning hours, with roughly 3-6 hours of MVFR to LIFR
restrictions forecast during the early morning hours from 09-12
UTC, and possibly IFR at BCB as well. May see storm coverage
increase Wed afternoon but again to scattered to have in any
tafs at the moment.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure should maintain VFR conditions into the weekend.
We will be a typical summer pattern for the most part with
scattered storms in the afternoon/evening followed by fog
potential at night where it rain and near rivers/lakes.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for VAZ022>024-
     033>035-043>045.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     VAZ046-047-058-059.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ003>005-
     019-020.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS/WP
LONG TERM...RCS/WP
AVIATION...EB/WP